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Sunday, June 16

16th Jun - Weekender: Markets, Econ, Off-Topic, Finnish

Here’s this weekend’s second proper linkfest, covering Markets, G8, Economics, Intelligence and Off-Topics. Also, select Finnish-language articles for my local readers.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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HFTs Pay Reuters To Learn First That Consumers Suddenly Less ConfidentZH

Things Investors Should Read. Things Investors Should Avoid.Fool
Buffett has no computer screens on his desk.

Weekend Sentiment Summary  The Short Side of the Long

Rotation 1: out of fixed incomeSober Look
Rotation 2: has not worked out as plannedSober Look

1994 Redux? But Not In BondsZH
In UBS’s view, 1994 is critical for guiding investing today. The key point about 1994 was not that US bond yields rose during a global recovery. But that the leverage and positioning built up in previous years, on the assumption that yields would remain low, then got stressed.

Worthwhile Canadian ComparisonKrugman / NYT
Canada ought to be quite vulnerable to a big deleveraging shock despite its boring banks. Of course, people have been saying this for several years, and it hasn’t happened yet — but remember, the US housing bubble took a long time to pop, too.

Markets Are "Tepper'd Out So Don't Get Sucked In"ZH
Nomura’s Bob Janjuah: There can be no doubt in my view that the global growth, earnings, incomes and fundamental story remains very subdued. But at the same time financial markets, hooked on central bank ‘heroin’, have created an enormous and – in the long run – untenable gap between themselves and the real economy’s fundamentals. This gap is getting to dangerous levels, with positioning, sentiment, speculation, margin and leverage running at levels unseen since 2006/2007.

Where's The "Value"?ZH
UBS global equity strategy heat-map identifies the most expensive and cheapest sectors across 20 regions. The US currently is most expensive and intriguingly Australia the cheapest relative to their own historical valuations.

Book Review: Quantitative ValueThe Aleph Blog

What We're Reading ~ Hedge Fund Links 6/14/13market folly

Thomson Reuters Gives Elite Traders Early AdvantageCNBC
A closely watched consumer confidence number that routinely moves markets upon release is accessed by an elite group of traders, for a fee, a full two seconds before its official release, according to a document obtained by CNBC.

Viewpoints. Which way for bonds? – Mapping a path forwardPIMCO
Bill Gross: We believe caution is warranted not just for fixed income investors, but for investors in all risk assets. Central banks have reached a critical inflection point in which the negatives of their aggressive policies may be outweighing the positives and in fact hampering growth.

Book Bits | 6.15.13The Capital Spectator

G8 SUMMIT (tax, transparency, trade)
39th G8 summit – Wikipedia
UK Prime Minister's speech at G8 Open for Growth –
G8: the European Union's role and actions – Europa
Heading for the G8 summit - with your Sherpa – Deutsche Welle
The G8 agenda: The transparency summit – The Economist
G8 to say risks to economy lower, reforms needed: draft – Reuters

Fiscalists, Monetarists, Credibility, and TurfKrugman / NYT
The main thing, I think, is to recognize that while we have our differences, the important thing is to try everything that might help. The greatest intellectual sin here is to care more about protecting your turf

Monetary policy in an environment of low growth and interest ratesBIS (pdf)
Speech by Mr Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the Nordea 3rd Annual Nordic AAA Seminar, Copenhagen, 13 June 2013.

Reintegrating financial marketsBIS (pdf)
Speech by Mr Jörg Asmussen, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, at the General Assembly of the European Savings Banks Group, Berlin, 14 June 2013.

The role of the central bank after the financial crisis - the challenges aheadBIS (pdf)
Speech by Mr Stefan Ingves, Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank and Chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, to the Swedish Economics Association, Stockholm, 12 June 2013.

Multipliers in a monetary union and at the ZLBmainly macro

In the countries of the oldCoppola Comment
Well, Eurozone countries exporting people is hardly news. But Germany isn't exporting the same sort of people as other Eurozone countries. Other countries are exporting their young and their skilled. Germany is exporting its old. Economically this makes complete sense.

The influence of spies has become too much. It's time politicians said noThe Guardian
John le Carré on secret courts, surveillance and the excessive influence of the CIA and MI6 on democratic institutions

The noise about the NSA is not really newsSober Look
People just haven't been paying attention

The Empire Strikes Back: The Demonization of Snowden BeginsFabius Maximus
Marcus Ranum, our in-house cyber-expert, looks at the next stage of the government’s defense against the revelations of NSA surveillance. Like the surveillance itself, they rely on non-governmental agents to get the job done.

Secrets, lies and America’s spiesThe Economist
Government’s first job of protecting its citizens should be based on informed consent.

Look who’s listeningThe Economist
The NSA collects more information than most people thought.

Online privacy: How to disappearThe Economist
It is getting harder and harder to disappear.

Edward Snowden's worst fear has not been realised – thankfullyThe Guardian
The NSA whistleblower's only concern was that his disclosures would be met with apathy. Instead, they're leading to real reform

NSA Leader Seeks Openness on Secret Surveillance OrdersBB
The head of the National Security Agency said he would seek to make more information public about electronic surveillance of citizens while emphasizing that disclosure of the programs has done “great harm” to the U.S.

**Bloomberg Reporters’ Practices Become Crucial Issue for CompanyNYT
Most journalists dream of uncovering government corruption, landing a big interview or winning a Pulitzer Prize. But those are not the goals that Thomas F. Secunda, who co-founded Bloomberg L.P. in 1982 with Michael R. Bloomberg, has in mind: “The only journalism that matters is the kind that moves markets,” Mr. Secunda told the senior staff of Bloomberg News

Crowdfunding students: Start me upThe Economist
Companies such as Upstart and Pave allow individuals to sell a stake in their own earnings.
In exchange for an initial sum of money, students agree to pay a portion of their pretax earnings for a specified period of years.

Foreign Affairs Report: The Iranian ElectionForeign Affairs
In the Picture: Iran’s presidential electionThe World / FT

The Biggest Threat to the Global Economy Could Come From Outer SpaceThe Atlantic

Three Things I’ve Learned From Warren BuffettBill Gates

Laughter and the BrainThe American Scholar
Can humor help us better understand the most complex and enigmatic organ in the human body?

Physics’s pangolinAeon
Trying to resolve the stubborn paradoxes of their field, physicists craft ever more mind-boggling visions of reality

How To Be Prolific: Guidelines For Getting It Done From Joss Whedoncocreate
The writer-producer-director who made Much Ado About Nothing while editing The Avengers, and who’ll return to TV this fall with Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D., knows a bit about “getting things done.” In fact, he cites David Allen’s book of that title as an important guide--even if he never finished reading it.

Ekonomisti: Eurooppa kävelee unissaanTalouselämä
Ruotsin suurimpiin pankkeihin kuuluvan Skandinaviska Enskilda Bankenin (SEB) pääekonomisti Robert Bergqvist: ” Olemme nyt vuosia kuulleet liian paljon puhetta, mutta nähneet vähän tekoja”

Ekonomistit löysäisivät valtion velkatavoitettaTalSa
Suomen talouden alamäki on ollut lähes yhtäjaksoista puolitoista vuotta. Hallitus ei ole kyennyt pysäyttämään työttömyyden kasvua. Taloussanomat kysyi suomalaisekonomisteilta, mitä pitäisi tehdä. Ainakin velkasuhdetavoitteesta pitäisi joustaa, ekonomistit kehottavat hallitusta.

"Miljardikaappaus jäi pienelle huomiolle"verkkouutiset
Perussuomalaisten kansanedustaja Kaj Turusen mukaan kuluneen viikon uutisvirrassa jäi pienelle huomiolle miljardikaappaus. Kyse on pieniltä yrityksiltä liikaa peritystä työkyvyttömyysmaksusta.

Katainen ei halua EU:n kehittyvän liittovaltioksiTalSa
Hän ei myöskään lämpene ehdotukselle euroryhmän päätoimisesta johtajasta.

Talous romahtaa ilman luottamustaPääkirjoitus / HS

Suomi lisää löylyä, vaikka taju uhkaa lähteäJan Hurri / TalSa
Kun talouden kaikki keskeiset osat supistuvat, kokonaistuotanto ei voi muuta kuin supistua. Siksi kansalliset säästötalkoot ovat päätön yritys, joka ei voi onnistua ilman taantuman pahenemista. Tätä Suomen hallitus kuitenkin yrittää. Hallitus lyö lisää löylyä, vaikka löylykisa uhkaa viedä tajun.

Suomi kyttää huippuvirkoja EU:ssaHS
Leena Maria Linnus myllää parlamentissa uusiksi lähes kaikkea, mitä tulee ulos jos taloa ravistaa

Unioni ei kaadu kertarysäykselläHS Pääkirjoitus
Ensimmäisessä vaihtoehdossa EU voittaa vaikeutensa ja siitä tulee liittovaltio, Euroopan Yhdysvallat. Tämä vie toki vuosikymmeniä. Toinen vaihtoehto on, että unionia ryhdytään rauhassa purkamaan. Sekin kestää kymmeniä vuosia.

Miksi euro vahvistuu dollariin nähden – selitys yhdellä kuvalla tyhmyri