Google Analytics

Friday, June 7

7th Jun - EU Open: Confused markets wait US payrolls

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: A Narrow Escape for Itchy Markets – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat: Time To Hunker Down For U.S. Payrolls – WSJ

3 Numbers to Watch: Greece GDP, German ind. production, US jobsTradingFloor
The US Employment report is the day's main event, but it will probably not provide any fresh clues on monetary policy. Germany's industrial production and Greece's GDP will confirm the European slump.

Market Preview: US non-farm payrolls in the spotlightTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open higher Friday. Traders will keep an eye on the US non-farm payrolls data due later today for hints as to the Fed’s future policy moves. Also, German industrial production and trade balance data will be in focus.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Our US payrolls forecast remains above the official 165k consensus expectation, but the ‘whisper’ consensus has probably been lowered on the back of the subdued labour market data in the past week

Mitä teit, Draghi * Ma, ti, ke, to, payrolls * EURUSD kolmen kuukauden huippuihin

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Ulkomaalaisomistuksen muutokset toukokuulta kertovat kiinnostuksen kohdistuvan defensiivisiin Suomi-osakkeisiin. Trendi jatkui, vaikka eurooppalaisissa sektori-ETF:ssä kiinnotus siirtyi syklisiin.


Euro area housing market temperature gaugeDanske Bank (pdf)
The euro area housing market is extremely diverse, as shown in Danske Bank’s Euro Area Housing Market Index below. Indeed, in terms of housing markets, the euro area looks like independent economies rather than a single market.

Economic divergences among Eurozone countries have played an increasingly important role in ECB decision-making since the start of the crisis. – Europp / LSE
The ECB officially bases its decision-making on euro-wide data, rather than the situation in individual Eurozone countries. However, this ‘one size fits all’ approach may be inappropriate in cases where there are fundamental economic differences between individual countries. Outlining the results of a study into ECB decision-making, they find that national divergences, particularly among those in the Eurozone’s periphery, have played an increasingly important role during the financial and sovereign debt crises.

Mixed evidence from GermanyMacroScope / Reuters

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, JobsCalculated Risk

An Insider’s Guide to the SummitWSJ
As Barack Obama and Xi Jinping prepare to meet in California, the stakes in U.S. China relations have rarely been higher. For insight into what to expect, China Real Time turned to Jeffrey Bader, who played a key role in organizing previous U.S.-China summits.

The Unbearable Lightness of Being RightKrugman / NYT
And yet nothing changes. Not only don’t the policies change; by and large even the people don’t change. Reinhart and Rogoff may get a bit fewer high-profile invites, as will Alesina and Ardagna; but Bowles and Simpson are still touring, the same people at the BIS and the OECD are still issuing dire warnings about the dangers of easy money, George Osborne is still making pronouncements, Paul Ryan is still the intellectual leader of his party.

Central Bankers and their Big Brass BallsMacro Man
A couple of weeks ago the world seemed pretty sure of how Ben, Abe and Dr. Aghi were playing their hands.