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Monday, June 3

3rd Jun - US Open

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight: US Bid, Europe Offered On China PMI – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Merkel: No need to ‘give up more powers to the Commission’; Chancellor expresses reluctance about direct elections for Commission President

Morning MoneyBeat – WSJ
Morning Bond Update – TradingFloor
Capital Market Drivers  Marc to Market
Morning Briefing (EU/US): Sign Of The Times – BNY Mellon
  Is the support that emerging markets have enjoyed for so long from a weak USD now starting to wane?

The movement of people (and its consequences)Coppola Comment
The "slow train wreck" that is Eurozone youth unemployment

Euro area: Expect less drag from fiscal policyNordea
Tight fiscal policy by way of spending cuts and tax increases is one of the key reasons why the Euro area struggles to get out of recession.

A Greek bond raidalphaville / FT
We are not quite sure what is going on here. Japonica Partners, a self-styled “entrepreneurial co-investment firm” based in Providence, Rhode Island, has launched a tender offer for almost 10 per cent of all Greek government bonds in circulation. It’s ready to buy paper worth €2.9bn at par, paying a minimum of 45 per cent of face value.

The EU has found a compassionate sideTradingFloor
Nick Beecroft: The EU seems finally to have got it. 'Austerity Infinite' was only ever going to succeed in taking us to very bad places indeed. At the best (and I am afraid we are going to see this anyway), violent unrest on Southern European streets. At the worst, well, goodness knows where things might have gone; one can certainly envisage desperate populations demanding that their governments take them out of the Euro, and maybe even the EU, as populist rhetoric whipped up anti-German fever.

ECB preview: long words, short actionNordea
We expect no change in rates and nothing new on the ABS programme this time around. Draghi is likely to strike a dovish tone to support sentiment and confidence, probably stressing recent key figure improvements and keeping the option of negative rates on the table.

BizDaily: Next in the firing line?BBC (mp3)
Could the crisis in Slovenia threaten the future of the Eurozone, why Europe is so resistant at attempts at unification and why the quality of your degree doesn't matter.

Something must be done, but what?MacroScope / Reuters

On SeptemberTim Duy’s Fed Watch
As always, the data will drive the Fed's next move.  My expectation is that data evolves in such a way that policy will shift in September.  I think there is currently a bias toward ending QE, so I anticipate a willingness of policymakers to focus on stronger numbers and downplay the importance of weaker numbers

China: Conflicting messages from manufacturing PMIsDanske Bank (pdf)

Intended consequences and the yenalphaville / FT 

BIS Quarterly Review, June 2013BIS
Table of contents of 'International banking and financial market developments' (BIS Quarterly Review), June 2013

Heads Up: Developments before the New Week BeginsMarc to Market
China's official May manufacturing PMI was reported better * The Turkish government's poor response to protests * ermany and France issued draft proposals on fiscal and banking union * Fear of that the Federal Reserve may begin exiting from its unconventional easing program *

Strengthening financial resilienceECB
Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the 2013 International Monetary Conference, Shanghai, 3 June 2013

Global liquidity and international risk-sharing in the post-crisis environmentECB
Speech by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of Korea International Conference 2013 “Assessing Global Liquidity in a Global Framework”, Seoul, 3 June 2013

Should you have sold in May?Humble Student

Toistetaanko 90-luvun alku?Henri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Subprime-vakuudet ja silmänkääntötemppuElina Lepomäki / US Puheenvuoro

Vientikysyntä yhä alamaissaEK
Viennin heikkous jatkui alkuvuodesta, sillä Suomen tavaravienti väheni maaliskuussa 12 vuoden takaisesta. Ensimmäisen vuosineljänneksen aikana vienti supistui vuositasolla neljä prosenttia. Kemianteollisuus ja etenkin öljytuotteet ovat tällä hetkellä viennin valopilkku. Useimmilla muilla aloilla vientikehitys on vaimeaa.

Puolitotuudet ovat vaarallisiaRaimo Ilaskivi / US Puheenvuoro

Näin Kreikka-vakuuksien sopimusmiina laukeaaJan Hurri / TalSa
Valtiovarainministeriö vahvistaa, että Kreikka-vakuudet eivät turvaa Suomea Kreikan hätäluottojen huojennuksista koituvilta tappioilta. Velka-armahdus on kuitenkin VM:n mukaan kuvitteellinen tilanne, jonka Suomi voi lisäksi estää. Valuuttarahasto IMF on eri mieltä: sen mukaan Kreikan velka-armahdukset eivät ole kuvitelmaa vaan välttämättömiä. Jos euromaat noudattavat IMF:n neuvoa, Suomen sopimusmiina laukeaa.

Maahanmuuttajien SuomiPauli Vahtera / IL blogi

Suomen Pankin ex-johtaja: Euro uppoaa kuin uppotukkiKL
Europeli poikki mahdollisimman pian. Rahoituskonsultti, Suomen Pankin johtajistoon kuulunut Heikki Koskenkylä ehdottaa Suomen eroa euroalueesta.