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Saturday, June 29

29th Jun - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' hereUS Payrolls and ISM manufacturing, the ECB’s meeting are the main events, but not much is expected market-wise from these. Dull holidays?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Markets – Between The Hedges

Weekly Scoreboard – Between The Hedges
US market portrait – Portfolio Probe
Europe: Weak Close Leaves European Stocks Red Year-To-Date – ZH
US: Stocks Plunge In Last Minute, June Is Worst Month Since October 2012 – ZH

The Economist’s Weeklies:

The Weekenderalphaville / FT

The Weekenderbeyondbrics / FT

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

The Week That WasZH

Week in Review: Corzine’s Legal Battle May Last YearsDealBook / NYT
Suit accuses Jon Corzine of a failure at the helm. | Cost of public projects is rising, and pain will be felt for years. | Bank gains by putting the brakes on traders. | Exit from the bond market is turning into a stampede. | Andrew Ross Sorkin says that economists are asking: Did Ben Bernanke tip the Fed’s hand? | Mass layoffs at a top-flight law firm. | Deals in the works involving two luxury retailers.

(audio) MoneyBeat Week Who’s Misreading Whom? WSJ
Did the markets misread the Fed or did the Fed misread the markets?

Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk
The key report this week is the June employment report on Friday. Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, auto sales on Tuesday, the Trade Balance report on Wednesday, and the ISM service index also on Wednesday.

Economic CalendarBerenberg (pdf)
US labour market: hawks back on the offensive on strong non-farm payrolls? Bank of England: no action at Carney’s premiere. ECB: no action, Draghi dovish. PMIs: China weak, US moderate, Europe rebounding

Key Events And Market Issues In The Coming Week ZH

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken (pdf)

S&P 500 Earnings Week AheadReuters

Wall Street Week AheadReuters
Panic selling on fears of an early exit of the U.S. Federal Reserve's stimulus efforts may be over, but the stock market may still face wild intraday swings as investors scramble to position themselves for Friday's payrolls report.

(video) Europe Week Ahead Reuters
Central Banks, Carney, Croatia

(video) Asia Week AheadReuters
Snowden chill for China-US at Asia meeting?

(video) US Week Ahead Reuters
No fireworks seen in June jobs report

Week Ahead Nordea (pdf)
US: With Fed policy moves completely data-dependent, the employment reports released next week will obviously be very important for markets. We expect payrolls to increase by 150k and the unemployment rate to slip to 7.5% after printing at 7.6% in May. Euro Area: On Thursday, ECB will announce its decision on rates followed by Draghi’s press conference. During the last ECB meeting in early June, Draghi reiterated that the bank is monitoring incoming data very closely and stand’s ready to act. Following the June announcement, data has been improving somewhat, which should make the bank stay on hold.

Weekly Focus: Time to calm downDanske Bank (pdf)
Draghi is unlikely to open up for further easing in connection with the ECB meeting but he will probably attempt some verbal intervention by underscoring that monetary policy will stay accommodative in the distant future. In the US we expect a decent 180K gain in non-farm payrolls and a rebound in ISM manufacturing, suggesting that the soft patch has indeed been soft and is now possibly coming to an end. In China we expect a gradual decline in money market rates and possibly a more proactive PBoC to contribute to stabilisation in financial markets but economic data is expected to remain weak.

Strategy: Capitulation paves way for consolidation in risk assetsDanske Bank (pdf)
We have seen lots of capitulation recently in financial markets leading to decline in risk assets and higher bond yields.

Weighing the Week AheadA Dash of Insight
What do higher interest rates mean for stocks?

Weekend Sentiment Summary (June Week 4)Short Side of the Long

FX Positioning and Technical Outlook:  Dollar Finishes Q2 on Firm Footing Marc to Market

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
Improved mood in the credit market but primary market activity is subdued. EU Council agrees on principles for bank resolution. S&P may change its corporate rating methodology.

Commodities Monthly: Downside risks as Perfect Storm is gatheringDanske Bank (pdf)
Metals have proved especially vulnerable to accelerating China fears.

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank (pdf)
The EMEA markets have come under pressure in recent months. Local factors such as political unrest in Turkey and weak Polish macroeconomic data undoubtedly have had an negative impact on the sentiment in the EMEA markets.

Emerging: Week Aheadbeyondbrics / FT

EU Week Ahead: July 1-5WSJ
In a week in which there are likely to be further reverberations over reports that the U.S. spied on EU institutions, much of the action takes place out of Brussels. It starts with the celebrations to mark Croatia’s accession, through some important parliamentary sessions in Strasbourg, Chancellor Angela Merkel‘s pre-election jobs summit in Berlin and the EU commissioners trip to Vilnius to mark the start of Lithuania’s presidency.

Agenda: US bugging allegations in spotlighteuobserver
Fallout from allegations that US security services bugged EU officials and buildings is expected to be uppermost in lawmakers' minds this week.

Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar –
Monthly Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –


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