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Tuesday, April 1

1st Apr - Good Macro, ECB hopes waning

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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France Seeks ForbearanceMarc to Market
French President Hollande, fresh from a stunning defeat in local elections is signaling that he will once seek the EC (and Germany's) forbearance to relax the fiscal rules yet again for the euro zone's second largest economy.

France Criticizes European Commission as "Totally Useless", Wants More Time on Budget DeficitsMish’s

Interactive map: Europe’s social polarisation and the generational struggleBruegel
What do indicators measuring poverty and inequality actually show?
NATO Reassures East Allies as It Questions Russian PullbackBB
NATO said it will recommit to defending frontline states in eastern Europe that have been unsettled by the seizure of Crimea as the alliance reported no signs of a Russian troop pullback from Ukraine’s borders.

Putin’s WorldProject Syndicate
The West has no idea what Russia is willing to do, but Russia knows exactly what the West will – and, more important, will not – do. This has created a dangerous asymmetry, which could spell disaster for the international order that has existed since the end of the Cold War.

Draghi Europe Scenario Points to Lowflation Still PainfulBB
For all the fears of a Japan-style era of deflation, a more likely threat for Europe is what IMF officials are calling lowflation.

ECB Preview: The balance is set to tilt to more easingDanske Bank
We see the odds slightly in favour of further ECB easing this week. The Governing Council has discussed more easing at the latest ECB meetings and we think the balance will tilt this time. Our main scenario is a small refi rate cut to 0.15%.

EU's Rehn worried about possibility of prolonged low euro zone inflationReuters

Is Wage Growth a Wild Card in ECB Thinking?WSJ
ECB policymakers have often said that the ECB shouldn’t react to single changes in the inflation rate, but rather should see if lower inflation rates translate into lower wages or price expectations.

PMIs Give ECB Excuse To Stay PatWSJ
Recent history suggests the ECB will only move in the case of an emergency. President Mario Draghi promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro when crisis threatened to overwhelm the single currency in the summer of 2012. But since then, the details of quite how far the ECB might be willing to go to meet its promise have been clouded.

German Jobless Falls for Fourth Month as Growth Picks Up – BB
Euro area unemployment rate at 11.9% - Eurostat

Yellen’s NAIRUMacro Man
Janet Yellen gave a speech yesterday in which she appeared to push back ever so slightly against the apparently hawkish message delivered a couple of weeks ago. 
Global Central Banking in 2014, A First Quarter UpdateWSJ
Here’s a guide to the individual outlooks for central banks around the world, compiled by our global staff of reporters and editors.

Global Beta: Flat March on gold negativity, government bonds slipTradingFloor
Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy: Global Beta was flat in March on negative contribution from gold and long-term US government bonds. Equities and emerging market bonds had a good month with the latter seeing a much needed comeback.

FX Board for April 1, 2014: AUD wiltsTradingFloor
The major FX pairs outside of the JPY crosses are reluctant to commit to new directional signals ahead of key US data and the ECB meeting on Thursday. Pattern reversal in AUDCAD looks compelling.

Best And Worst Performers In March And Q1 ZH


Economists React: China Manufacturing PMIs Reflect Slowing Growth – WSJ
Asia's manufacturing powers stutter, stir talk of policy support – Reuters
China Manufacturing Index Little Changed in March – BB
China factories struggle, adds to expectations for stimulus – Reuters
China PMI improves but too early to call bottom – Danske Bank

Euro Manufacturing Stays Near 3-Year High as Recovery Persists – BB
Euro zone factory expansion eases despite price cutting – Reuters
Growth in German manufacturing sector slows in March: PMI – Reuters
U.K. Manufacturing Cools as Export Demand Falls to 10-Month Low – BB

US PMI Drops, Misses By Most In 7 Months, Weather Implicated Again – ZH
ISM Manufacturing index increased in March to 53.7 – Calculated Risk
ISM Manufacturing Rises For Second Straight Month – Bespoke
U.S. factory activity picks up, more gains eyed as winter fades – Reuters

Ekonomisti: Valtion kruununjalokivet menevät myyntiinYLE
Danske Bankin pääekonomisti Pasi Kuoppamäki arvioi hallituksen kehyspäätöksen tarkoittavan ennen kaikkea hyvää tulosta tehneiden pörssiyhtiöiden myyntiä. Ekonomistit suhtautuvat myyntiin suopeasti, vaikka se tarkoittaakin lovea valtion tulevien vuosien osinkotuloihin.

Osa Sveitsin pankkien suomalaisasiakkaista haluaisi katua maksamattomia verojaanYLE
Niin sanottu tehokkaan katumisen malli tarkoittaa, että verovelvollinen välttyy rikostuomiolta, jos hän ilmoittaa oma-aloitteisesti piiloon jääneet tulonsa verottajalle. Syynä suomalaisten katumishaluun on sveitsiläispankkien tiukentunut linja talletusten suhteen.

Näkökulma: PorvarisopimusIL
Kokoomuksen ja keskustan valmistelut porvarihallituksesta ovat jo pitkällä, kirjoittaa Iltalehden uutispäällikkö Juha Ristamäki.

Kehysriihi sementoi julkisen sektorin paisumistaRoger Wessman

Kansakuntien Eurooppa korvaa romahtavan Euroopan unioninOlli Immonen / US

Media vahtaa Soinia, mutta vaikenee siitä populismista, jolla on väliäNYT

Miten sitä katsooKalle Isokallio / IL

Vihriälä: Velkakriisiä ei ole voitettuKL
Etlan toimitusjohtaja Vesa Vihriälä perää euroalueelle pelisääntöjä tulevien velkajärjestelyiden varalta.

Rehn huolestui pitkittyvästä alhaisesta inflaatiosta - "mutta toisaalta..."TE

Saksalaisekonomisti: Deflaatio on tarpeellinen Etelä-EuroopassaVerkkouutiset
Saksalaisekonomistin mukaan euroalueen kriisimaissa tapahtuva hintojen halpeneminen on merkki käynnissä olevasta sopeutumisprosessista.