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Tuesday, April 29

29th Apr - Bad European data

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Titus Maccius Plautus and the EU TroikaMoney Matters
Another positive influence of the troika: the great improvements in the structural conditions in the product and labour markets.

Financial Transactions Tax: What the United States Needs to DoPIIE

Strong Euro? Blame the Rejig of FX ReservesWSJ

Europe’s Trapped PoliticsProject Syndicate
Jean Pisani-Ferry: If Europe were politically unified, issues stemming from growing economic divergences among EU member states would dominate the run-up to May’s European Parliament election. Instead, the issue that matters most to voters – and to Europe – has remained outside the scope of the campaign.

The rise of Euroscepticism across Europe has masked general apathy about the European elections among votersEuropp / LSE
The real threat to European integration is not a large Eurosceptic vote, but the potential for a low turnout brought about through general apathy toward the EU among ordinary voters.

Pro-EU politicians have so far failed to match the level of vision and imagination shown by Eurosceptics in the EP election campaignEuropp / LSE
The May elections are expected to see a significant increase in support for Eurosceptic parties. Eurosceptic parties have offered is a clear vision of the future of Europe and pro-EU politicians have an obligation to present the other side of the debate.

#TradingDebates: Europe is reaching breaking point… again!TradingFloor
Europe's financial crisis is evolving into a political crisis * Trust in the EU and in governments is eroding rapidly * The North/South fault line will eventually crack open

Britain Outlines Stress Test for Its Banks – WSJ
The Bank of England says banks will have to have enough capital to withstand 12 percent unemployment and a 35 percent decline in housing prices. -

IS BOE’s Carney Targeting Wage Growth?WSJ
Carney declared that “substantial” wage rises will be needed to ensure the economic recovery that began last year is sustained. That is an unusual message for a central banker to deliver.

Draghi Tells German Lawmakers ECB Bond-Purchases UnlikelyBB
Draghi told German lawmakers that a quantitative-easing program isn’t imminent and is relatively unlikely for now, according to a euro-area official present at the meeting.

Europe’s Credit Squeeze Gives ECB a HeadacheWSJ
Until the euro zone’s banking sector has been put onto a sound footing, the problems with credit transmission are bound to persist. The ECB and the banks’ regulator is trying to do this by imposing severe stress tests and capital requirements. But the process takes time.

ECB Finds Inflation Expectations Better Anchored than in U.S.WSJ
A paper published by the ECB explains why: market-based measures of inflation expectations vary less in the euro zone than they do in the U.S.

More hope than conviction for euro zone inflation reboundMacroScope / Reuters
With unemployment still endemic across the euro zone – in Spain it is now nearly 26 percent – how could anyone really be convinced a wage-generated rebound in inflation is just around the corner?

Europe Banks Face Toughest Simulated Slump in Stress TestBB
EU unveils tougher bank tests in bid to draw line under crisisReuters
European banks must show they can survive simultaneous routs in bonds, property and stocks, in the toughest test so far by regulators aiming to restore confidence in an industry that had to be rescued by taxpayers in the financial crisis.

ECB to give banks 6-9 months to cover capital shortfalls ECB
Note on the comprehensive assessment - April 2014ECB
ECB Squeezed and EBA Posts Stress Test ScenariosMarc to Market

Deutsche Bank’s Capital Buffer Remains a Thorny IssueWSJ

U.S. Drip-Feed of Sanctions Seen Risking Putin Backlash – BB
Russia Recession Risk Seen at Record High as Sanctions Escalate – Businessweek
EU imposes more sanctions on Russia over Ukraine crisis – Reuters
Part 2 of Ukraine-related US sanctions against RussiaFT
EU sanctions, the sequel – FT
Why the sanctions against Russia probably won’t work – WaPo
Wonkbook: The economics of the new Russia sanctions – WaPo
The Kremlin Doesn’t Believe in Friends – BB
Russia Recession Risk Seen Rising on Sanctions – BB

Euro zone sentiment, inflation expectations dip in April – Reuters
European sentiment still suffering crisis blues – TradingFloor
Euro-Area April Economic Confidence Unexpectedly Declines – BB
German inflation, pointing to euro zone, picks up less than expected – Reuters
German Inflation Misses Estimates as ECB Pressure Mounts – BB
German inflation lower than expected, we revise EZ forecast down – Danske Bank
Monetary development in the euro area March 2014ECB
Euro money supply showed further weakness in March – Danske Bank
UK economy grows at fastest pace in over six years – Reuters
UK Economic Growth Quickens to 0.8% as Recovery Broadens – BB

FOMC preview: Fed to point to better data but otherwise very little changeDanske Bank

Three Fed Nominees Might Not Be Confirmed by June – WSJ
Fischer Gains Support of Senate Panel for Fed Vice Chairman – BB
Federal Reserve nominees clear key hurdle – WaPo

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Decreases From Six-Year High – BB
Consumer Confidence Misses; Present Situation Tumbles Most In 15 Months – ZH
April U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips to 82.3, Below Expectations – WSJ

IMF: Three Reasons Not to Worry About a Crisis in ChinaWSJ
China owes most of its debt to itself * Government debt is low * China’s slowdown, like its economy, is central planned.

The EM rally – is it over already?FT
It may be early to call the end of the EM rally of the past couple of months but the latest EM portfolio flows tracker from the Institute of International Finances adds to a feeling that it is losing some of its puff.

*Why AUDJPY is the Swiss army knife for tradersTradingFloor
Whether you trade single stocks or index CFDs, I can’t think of a more relevant item than the AUDJPY to keep on the screens. In 2012, it was the European sovereign bonds. In 2013, it was the EURJPY. But AUDJPY is forever – and it just might have a story to tell you at this very moment.

Commodities Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Battling extreme weather and geopolitics

Grand Central: In Japan: Dueling Forecasts, Dueling VisionsWSJ
Schlesinger’s Take: In Japan: Dueling Forecasts, Dueling Visions * BofA Errors in Capital Plan Forces Suspension of Buybacks, Dividend Boost * Three Fed Nominees Might Not Be Confirmed by June * Draghi Says ECB Still Unlikely to Engage in Large-Scale Asset Purchases * EU Sets Bank Stress-Test Scenarios

Macro Horizons: Signs of Global Trade Pickup, Also of Euro-Zone DeflationWSJ

Onko pankkitoiminnan kieltäminen ratkaisu?Roger Wessman

Lisää joko-tai –näkemyksiäHenri Myllyniemi / US
Euroalueen sisäiset eroavaisuudet näyttäytyvät kaikkialla...Mutta ainoa asia, jossa tällaisia eroja ei hyväksytä on valtiolainojen hinnoittelussa.

Haparointia Euroalueella, synkkää SuomessaRoger Wessman
Euroalueen talouselämän luottamusluvut heikkenivät hivenen huhtikuussa. Haparoinnista huolimatta luottamusluvut edelleen tukevat kuvaa euroalueen toipumisesta. Luottojen kehitys antaa synkemmän kuvan. Suomen talouden luottamusluvut eivät vieläkään ennakoi mitään piristymistä.

SDP: markkinat vai menneisyys?Talouden Tulkki
SDP:n johdossa taistellaan nykyisen markkinavetoisen talouden hyväksymisestä ja paluusta menneisyyteen. Valtiouskoon nojaava 70-lukulainen linja näyttäisi jäävän tappiolle.

Aatteen paloa vai valtionhoitoa?Hannu Visti
Demarit ja Kokoomus ovat valitsemassa puheenjohtajaa. Tätä katsellessa voi katsella suomalaista puoluekenttää yleisesti, ja ehkä jopa yhdistää laajemmalti ainakin protestanttiseen Eurooppaan.

Kokoomuksen sisäpiiri epäilee Stubbin kykyjäIS
Stubbilla voisi olla hankala saada tukijakseen edes viittä kansanedustajaa enempää, IS:n politiikan toimittaja Mika Lehto kirjoittaa.

Ajankohtainen kakkonen laski: Virolaiselle työttömälle jopa 30 000 euroaYLE
Ajankohtainen kakkonen laski Kelan tietoihin perustuen kuinka paljon kuvitteellinen virolainen kirvesmies Martin ja hänen perheensä voisivat saada sosiaaliturvaetuisuuksia Suomesta. Loppusumma nousi kymmeniin tuhansiin euroihin.