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Thursday, April 24

24th Apr - Ukraine worse, ECB weak, Germany strong

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Europe’s Next Moral Hazard Project Syndicate
Hans-Werner Sinn: The limit beyond which eurozone governments' creditors become anxious has been raised significantly by the bailout architecture put in place over the last two years. This will bring a few years of calm as debt levels climb steadily to that limit, before the architecture collapses, injuring ordinary citizens the most.

Periphery business cycle monitorDanske Bank
We expect most euro-area periphery countries to continue to show positive GDP growth. Survey data are at relatively high levels and the improvement is also seen in hard data, where industrial production is slowly increasing while retail sales have stabilized

European elections 2014: Overview of parties’ manifestos DB Research
In less than five weeks, from May 22-25, the elections for the European Parliament (EP) will be held across the European Union. 751 MEPs from 28 countries will be elected for a period of five years. For the first time, the largest political groups in the EP have nominated a pan-European candidate to run for the office of President of the Commission. In this sense, the EP campaign will resemble more closely than in the past the usually more personality-driven national election campaigns.

Crisis Stories: Iceland vs LatviaKrugman

Mario Draghi: Monetary policy communication in turbulent timesECB

Draghi Just Can’t Knock a Good EuroWSJ
The euro stumbled. A tiny bit. Then it immediately snapped back. Why is the market ignoring this message? For one thing, investors feel like they have seen this film before. They want action, not words. In addition, part of the answer lies in the region’s bond markets.

Draghi Prepares Ground for ECB Bond Purchases If NeededBB

Klaas Knot: The changing role of central bankingBIS
Klaas Knot, President of the Netherlands Bank, at the Conference De Nederlandsche Bank 200 years: central banking in the next two decades, Amsterdam, 24 April 2014.

Here’s a Checklist for Mario DraghiWSJ

Constancio: Investors’ Appetite for Bank Assets Positive For EurozoneWSJ

Ukraine Resumes Effort to Oust Separatists Amid Russian Warnings – BB
Tensions Escalate in
Ukraine as Geneva Deal Frays – WSJ
Corruption remains a problem with EU funds being particularly vulnerable – Europp / LSE
Fighting Breaks Out As Ukraine Deploys Tanks, Troops In Slavyansk: Deaths Reported – ZH
Putin: "Use Of Force Will Have Consequences" As Military Vehicles Heading Toward Border – ZH
Russia begins "defense drills”, “forced to react” to the situation – ZH
Desperate Ukraine Pleads: "Red Line Has Already Been Crossed" – ZH
Ukraine Gives Russia 48-Hr Ultimatum Or "We Will Fight" – ZH
Mohamed A. El-Erian: How to Lose in UkraineView / BB
Russia’s Gazprombank Preparing for U.S. Sanctions Over Ukraine – BB
Putin Warns of Consequences as Ukraine Steps Up Offensive – BB

Ifo Business Climate Index Rises in April – CESifo
German Ifo beats expectations in April – Merkelnomics
German IFO better than expected in April – TradingFloor
Ifo rises as Ukraine has little effect on German business – Reuters
German ifo expectations confirm strong growth outlook – Danske Bank
Germany: improving confidence old news – Nordea

Sweden: Soft Riksbank minutesNordea
A New Riksbank Dove EmergesWSJ
Krugman Target of Indignation as Swedes Reject Japan Comment BB

Denmark Abandons Negative Rate Experiment to Support KroneMarc to Market
End of negative rates in DenmarkDanske Bank
The end of Denmark’s monetary experimentWSJ

Denmark: Myths and realities about large household debtDanske Bank
Danish households have one of the largest gross debts in the world, but assets are even higher and as savings are currently positive, debt is declining whereas assets are increasing. There is no immediate danger of households causing large losses in the financial sector, barring very large interest rate increases. However, the combination of large debt and declines in house prices have caused households to reduce consumption, triggering large problems in other sectors, in particular retail and construction.

Don’t Look Now, but Rising Wages Could Spell Trouble for the FedWSJ

Treasury Yield Curve Collapses At Fastest Pace In 7 YearsZH

Durable Goods Report: March Beats Expectations – dshort
Strong durable goods orders buoy growth outlook – Reuters
Broad Gains in Durables Orders Point to Stronger U.S. Growth – BB

BOJ Beat: Banks Becoming More Insulated Against Rate JumpWSJ
Japanese banks are becoming more insulated against losses that could emerge from a sudden rise in interest rates, a Bank of Japan report showed Wednesday.

Grand Central: Time to Start Worrying about the U.S. Productivity SlowdownWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Time to Start Worrying about the U.S. Productivity Slowdown * ECB Would Consider Asset Purchases, Says Draghi * New Zealand Raises Interest Rates * Australian Central Banker Warns Against Deep Budget Cuts * Hungary Central Bank Revamps Policy Tools

Macro Horizons: More Upbeat Global Growth Signs; Just Try to Ignore Ukraine WSJ

EMEA Weekly: Week 18Danske Bank
Hungarian central bank continues to ease * Romanian economy is set for continued recovery

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Työttömyyden nousu taittumassaRoger Wessman