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EUROPE
BOE’s Haldane Offers Few Clues on Monetary
Policy – WSJ
POLITICS
Changing Continent: European Parliament
Elections 2014 – WSJ
http://graphics.wsj.com/european-elections-2014/
Impact of anti-EU parties on the next European
Parliament – Open Europe
Open Europe has today published a new briefing, projecting
the make-up of the next European Parliament. We estimate that anti-EU or
protest parties of various forms could win as much as 31% of the vote, up from
25% in 2009, and 218 out of 751 seats - a gain of 54 seats compared to the
current parliament.
BANKS /
STRESS TESTS
Outlooks were lowered
from stable “to reflect our view that extraordinary government support is
likely to diminish as regulators implement resolution frameworks,”
We’d prefer to be compared with our previous
attempts, thanks very much – FT
Stress test is supposed
to look past the realistic scenarios to scenarios that would make a
bank cry.
Nul points for EU’s stress-test comedy, but
French property slump rings true
– The
Telegraph
EUROPEAN
CENTRAL BANK
The ECB betting on "creditless"
recovery – Sober
Look
Of course Japan too had a "creditless" recovery -
until it didn't. But let's not make such silly comparisons.
Higher euro inflation in April but below the
ECB's forecast – Danske
Bank
We think the ECB will
continue its wait-and-see approach at least until new forecasts are released in
June
EUR inflation & ECB, CNY fix vs CNH – Global
Macro Trading
The EUR 5y5y forward
inflation is back at the lows from earlier this year. If they stay here or
break lower, there is likely a significantly higher chance of some sort of
action from the ECB next Thursday.
ECB's empty toolbox makes it look the other way – TradingFloor
The macroeconomic
environment in Europe is screaming out for further policy action but
the only thing that would work is fixing the banks. As no-one wants to do that,
the ECB is pretending the banks are OK, and that will not fix anything.
Survey on the access to finance of SMEs in the
euro area - Oct2013- Mar 2014 –
ECB
Press release – ECB
Results of the April 2014 euro area bank
lending survey – ECB
Hopeful Signs For Euro-Zone Credit – WSJ
The ECB’s bank lending
survey for the first three months of the year was a small ray of spring
sunshine in what’s been a very long winter. Banks reported a very significant
loosening of credit standards, while demand was considerably stronger in all
three major categories of small businesses, house purchases and consumer
credit.
Martin Feldstein: There
are few if any panaceas in economics. But a sharp decline in the euro’s
exchange rate – say, by 15% – would remedy many of the eurozone’s current
economic problems, including slow growth, high unemployment, and a growing risk
of deflation.
ECB still the major source of funding for banks – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Saving bank resolution in the Eurozone – voxeu.org
The European
Parliament recently adopted the Single Resolution Mechanism. Though supposed to
be a pillar of the European banking union, it is fraught with difficulties.
This column makes a proposal for a new organisational structure.
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
What to Watch For in
the Fed Statement Wednesday – WSJ
What To Look For In
Today's FOMC Statement – ZH
What to Expect From
Wednesday Fed Decision – WSJ
Fed Statement
Following April Meeting – WSJ
Redacted version of
the April 2014 FOMC Statement – Aleph
blog
Parsing the Fed: How
the Statement Changed – WSJ
Economists React to
Fed Statement: ‘Entirely as Expected’ – WSJ
Hilsencliff Notes: Q1
Worse Than Expected But Taper Stays – ZH
Fed to scale back bond
purchases by another $10 billion – WaPo
Q1 GDP
US Stagnated, but that
was Yesterday; Tomorrow's Outlook Brighter – Marc
to Market
Goldman: The weak
print appears to be largely due to one-off factors – ZH
GDP Shocker: US
Economic Growth Crashes To Just 0.1% In Q1 – ZH
Highlights From the
First-Quarter GDP Report – WSJ
Weakest GDP Relative
to Expectations in Over a Year – Bespoke
Q1 GDP: Investment
Contributions – Calculated
Risk
ASIA
Output falls at
fastest pace since December 2012 * New orders also down; exports decline
slightly *
Rate of job creation
accelerates to highest since February 2007
Japanese Manufacturing
PMI Drops To 14 Month Lows – ZH
Base Wages Tumble By
Most In 2014 (22nd Consecutive Monthly Drop) – ZH
BOJ Beat: Mr. Kuroda
Faces Skeptical Colleagues – WSJ
Monitor: Chinese Credit Crunch – Danske
Bank
OTHER
Rating agencies add
pressure on Russia as the ongoing conflict with Ukraine drags on * After a strong start to the
earnings season in the US, European companies are next in line to report
Grand Central: Fed History Lesson Worth
Recalling – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed
History Lesson Worth Recalling * What to Watch For in the Fed Statement
Wednesday * Euro-Zone Inflation Picks Up * China’s Central Bank Says Some Investment Products
Should Be Allowed to Fail * BOJ Sticks to Inflation View
Macro Horizons: All Eyes on Fed, But Central
Banks Overseas More Interesting
– WSJ
What if the Stock Market Were a Bond? – Crossing
Wall Street
FINNISH
EU-kriitikoiden
vaalivoitto voi muuttua tappioksi – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Erityyppiset "EU-kriittiset"
protestipuolueet saavat ennusteiden mukaan runsaan kannatuksen EU:n ensi kuun
parlamenttivaaleissa. Protestiäänet eivät silti riittäne pysäyttämään EU:n
liittovaltiokehitystä – se voi jopa voimistua. Poliittiset täyskäännökset
nähdäänkin jäsenmaiden omissa parlamenteissa, jos missään.
Kataisen
lähtöilmoitus katkaisi kokoomuksen nousun – YLE
Kokoomuksen kannatusnousu taittui pääministeri
Kataisen lähtöilmoituksen jälkeen. Keskusta puolestaan pysäytti talven
kannatusalamäkensä, selviää Yle Uutisten tuoreesta puoluekannatuskyselystä.
Kolumni:
Päättäjien parhaat vappuvitsit – Risto
Pennanen / TalSa
Poliittiset päättäjät ovat tarjoilleet viime
kuukausina paljon aineksia vappuhuumoriin.
Euron
tulevaisuus - markan toinen tuleminen – Sami
Miettinen / US
Pankkien
stressitesteistä tulossa farssi – Kaj
Turunen / US
Myyntimiehelle
näytettiin ovea – Juhani
Huopainen / US
Kun Hollanti uhkasi lähteä eurosta