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Wednesday, April 30

30th Apr - ECB undecided, so goes easy on banks

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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BOE’s Haldane Offers Few Clues on Monetary Policy WSJ

Changing Continent: European Parliament Elections 2014 WSJ

Impact of anti-EU parties on the next European Parliament – Open Europe
Open Europe has today published a new briefing, projecting the make-up of the next European Parliament. We estimate that anti-EU or protest parties of various forms could win as much as 31% of the vote, up from 25% in 2009, and 218 out of 751 seats - a gain of 54 seats compared to the current parliament.

Deutsche Bank Among 15 Europe Lenders Cut to Negative by S&PBB
Outlooks were lowered from stable “to reflect our view that extraordinary government support is likely to diminish as regulators implement resolution frameworks,”

We’d prefer to be compared with our previous attempts, thanks very muchFT
Stress test is supposed to look past the realistic scenarios to scenarios that would make a bank cry.

Nul points for EU’s stress-test comedy, but French property slump rings trueThe Telegraph

The ECB betting on "creditless" recoverySober Look
Of course Japan too had a "creditless" recovery - until it didn't. But let's not make such silly comparisons.

Higher euro inflation in April but below the ECB's forecastDanske Bank
We think the ECB will continue its wait-and-see approach at least until new forecasts are released in June

EUR inflation & ECB, CNY fix vs CNHGlobal Macro Trading
The EUR 5y5y forward inflation is back at the lows from earlier this year. If they stay here or break lower, there is likely a significantly higher chance of some sort of action from the ECB next Thursday.

ECB's empty toolbox makes it look the other wayTradingFloor
The macroeconomic environment in Europe is screaming out for further policy action but the only thing that would work is fixing the banks. As no-one wants to do that, the ECB is pretending the banks are OK, and that will not fix anything.

Survey on the access to finance of SMEs in the euro area - Oct2013- Mar 2014ECB
Press releaseECB
Results of the April 2014 euro area bank lending surveyECB

Hopeful Signs For Euro-Zone CreditWSJ
The ECB’s bank lending survey for the first three months of the year was a small ray of spring sunshine in what’s been a very long winter. Banks reported a very significant loosening of credit standards, while demand was considerably stronger in all three major categories of small businesses, house purchases and consumer credit.

A Weaker Euro for a Stronger EuropeProject Syndicate
Martin Feldstein: There are few if any panaceas in economics. But a sharp decline in the euro’s exchange rate – say, by 15% – would remedy many of the eurozone’s current economic problems, including slow growth, high unemployment, and a growing risk of deflation.

ECB still the major source of funding for banksMacroScope / Reuters

Saving bank resolution in the
The European Parliament recently adopted the Single Resolution Mechanism. Though supposed to be a pillar of the European banking union, it is fraught with difficulties. This column makes a proposal for a new organisational structure.

What to Watch For in the Fed Statement Wednesday – WSJ
What To Look For In Today's FOMC Statement – ZH
What to Expect From Wednesday Fed Decision – WSJ

Fed Statement Following April Meeting – WSJ
Redacted version of the April 2014 FOMC Statement – Aleph blog
Parsing the Fed: How the Statement Changed – WSJ
Economists React to Fed Statement: ‘Entirely as Expected’ – WSJ
Hilsencliff Notes: Q1 Worse Than Expected But Taper Stays – ZH
Fed to scale back bond purchases by another $10 billion – WaPo

  Q1 GDP
US Stagnated, but that was Yesterday; Tomorrow's Outlook Brighter – Marc to Market
Goldman: The weak print appears to be largely due to one-off factors – ZH
GDP Shocker: US Economic Growth Crashes To Just 0.1% In Q1 – ZH
Highlights From the First-Quarter GDP Report – WSJ
Economists React to U.S. GDP: ‘Grim, But Old News’ – WSJ
Weakest GDP Relative to Expectations in Over a Year – Bespoke
Q1 GDP: Investment Contributions – Calculated Risk

Japan April  Manufacturing PMIMarkit
Output falls at fastest pace since December 2012 * New orders also down; exports decline slightly *
Rate of job creation accelerates to highest since February 2007

Japanese Manufacturing PMI Drops To 14 Month Lows – ZH
Base Wages Tumble By Most In 2014 (22nd Consecutive Monthly Drop) – ZH
BOJ Beat: Mr. Kuroda Faces Skeptical Colleagues – WSJ

Monitor: Chinese Credit CrunchDanske Bank

Weekly Bond UpdateTradingFloor
Rating agencies add pressure on Russia as the ongoing conflict with Ukraine drags on * After a strong start to the earnings season in the US, European companies are next in line to report

Grand Central: Fed History Lesson Worth RecallingWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed History Lesson Worth Recalling * What to Watch For in the Fed Statement Wednesday * Euro-Zone Inflation Picks Up * China’s Central Bank Says Some Investment Products Should Be Allowed to Fail * BOJ Sticks to Inflation View

Macro Horizons: All Eyes on Fed, But Central Banks Overseas More InterestingWSJ

What if the Stock Market Were a Bond?Crossing Wall Street

EU-kriitikoiden vaalivoitto voi muuttua tappioksi Jan Hurri / TalSa
Erityyppiset "EU-kriittiset" protestipuolueet saavat ennusteiden mukaan runsaan kannatuksen EU:n ensi kuun parlamenttivaaleissa. Protestiäänet eivät silti riittäne pysäyttämään EU:n liittovaltiokehitystä – se voi jopa voimistua. Poliittiset täyskäännökset nähdäänkin jäsenmaiden omissa parlamenteissa, jos missään.

Kataisen lähtöilmoitus katkaisi kokoomuksen nousunYLE
Kokoomuksen kannatusnousu taittui pääministeri Kataisen lähtöilmoituksen jälkeen. Keskusta puolestaan pysäytti talven kannatusalamäkensä, selviää Yle Uutisten tuoreesta puoluekannatuskyselystä.

Kolumni: Päättäjien parhaat vappuvitsitRisto Pennanen / TalSa
Poliittiset päättäjät ovat tarjoilleet viime kuukausina paljon aineksia vappuhuumoriin.

Euron tulevaisuus - markan toinen tuleminenSami Miettinen / US

Pankkien stressitesteistä tulossa farssiKaj Turunen / US

Myyntimiehelle näytettiin oveaJuhani Huopainen / US
Kun Hollanti uhkasi lähteä eurosta