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Wednesday, April 23

23rd Apr - PMIs suggest European recovery

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Will French numbers add up?Reuters
France treads fine line on EU deficit-cutting targetsReuters
France outlined a slower roadmap on Wednesday to reduce its chronic deficit to the EU's treaty limit next year, based on growth assumptions described by an independent watchdog as risky.

EZ and EU28 government deficit at 3.0% and 3.3% of GDPEurostat

ECB FX intervention, de facto or otherwiseFT
Direct FX intervention been done it before by the ECB and if, as Rajan suggests, the externalities of QE and FX intervention are possibly similar while the difficulties of implementation are not, than you wonder why direct intervention appears to be so far down Draghi’s list of actions? Presumably the external political cost of intervention is still much higher than for QE.

Injecting cash to stimulate economy would be complex for ECB, Hansson saysReuters
Quantitative easing would be operationally complex for the European Central Bank, policymaker Ardo Hansson said, casting doubt on whether the bank could implement such a plan to ward off the threat of deflation.
Define Austerity: Spanish, Italian And Greek Debt/GDP Rise To Record HighsZH

The Gain in SpainProject Syndicate
Michael Spence: The Spanish economy is beginning to attract investors’ attention – and not only because asset prices are depressed in the current climate. While there are huge problems that must still be overcome, there is also a clear sense on the ground that the economy has passed a turning point, roughly at the start of this year.

The ECB gives Portugal a helping hand with its return to the marketsOpen Europe
Portugal this morning followed the lead set by Ireland and Greece and issued new debt for the first time since its bailout in 2011.

Portugal, Miracle or Mirage?WSJ
Investors couldn’t get enough of a Portuguese government bond sold Wednesday.

The Importance of GreeceMarc to Market
That would have produced a primary deficit of 16 bln euros or about 8.7% of GDP. However, the EC also granted Greece extra leeway. It allowed Greece to exclude one-off factors that largely was support for the banking system to the tune of 10.8% of GDP. Also, transfers from euro member central banks of their profits from Greek bonds they hold. It is through these machinations that EC concludes that Greece indeed had a primary surplus in 2013 of 0.8% of GDP.

More Greek Statistics? Troika Confirms Primary SurplusWSJ
Eurostat reported Wednesday that Greece had a government deficit in 2013 of €23 billion, and spent €7.2 billion on interest payments. That makes the primary balance—under the definition widely used by economists and Eurostat itself—a deficit of €16 billion, or 8.7% of Greece’s gross domestic product.

Ukraine May Resume Push in East as Russian Deal CrumplesBB

US PMI Drops, Misses By Most In 8 Months – ZH
New Home Sales Collapse To 8 Month Lows – ZH
New Home Sales decline to 384,000 Annual Rate in March – Calculated Risk
U.S. new home sales: the good, the bad and the ugly – WSJ


April Manufacturing Data Suggest China Economy Starting to Stabilize – WSJ
China Manufacturing Output and New Orders Contract Once Again – Mish’s
Yuan Falls to Lowest Since 2012 as China Data Signals Slowdown – BB
China’s Stocks Fall After Manufacturing Data Signals Contraction – BB
Asian Stocks Pare Advance After China Manufacturing Data – BB
4th Month Of Contraction As Yuan Weakens To Fresh 16 Months Lows – ZH
China factory activity shrinks for fourth month – Reuters
China Manufacturing Gauge Signals Economic Weakness – BB

France's Loss Is Germany's Gain – ZH
EZ PMI Lifts Euro, Soft CPI Kicks Aussie – Marc to Market
Euro PMIs stronger than expected in April – Danske Bank
Growth ahead but deflation threat increasing – TradingFloor
Euro Factory Surveys Rise as Price Weakness Persists – BB
German Economy Strengthens as Industry Survey Beats Estimate – BB
French April Industry Growth Cools as New Business Stagnates – BB
Chinese factories stalling as euro zone business picks up – Reuters
Euro zone private sector on strong footing but still slashing prices – Reuters

Grand Central: Housing Recovery, We Hardly Knew YouWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Housing Recovery, We Hardly Knew You * Fed Looks Likely to Stick to Policy Path * China Manufacturing Activity Remains Weak * Euro Zone Growth Accelerates, But Prices Cut * BOE Grapples With Self-Employment Puzzle
Muualla vyö alkaa löystyä mutta Suomi kiristää lisääJan Hurri / TalSa
Suuret euromaat Ranska, Italia ja Espanja aikovat keventää julkisen talouden vyönkiristyksiä. Saksa aloittaa uusia elvytystoimia alijäämän kasvusta huolimatta. Suomi sen sijaan jatkaa vyönkiristyksiä. Muut painavat kaasua, Suomi jarrua – muualla talous kasvaa, Suomessa ei.

Pääekonomisti: EKP:n on elvytettävä kaikin keinoinTalSa
Citigroupin pääekonomisti Willem Buiter vaatii Euroopan keskuspankilta toimia heikon inflaatiokehityksen pysäyttämiseksi. Sen lisäksi valuuttaunionin rakenteita on ravisteltava oikein kunnolla. Keskuspankin pitää saada tukea jäsenmaita suoraan, pankkiunionia on vahvistettava sekä tehtävä velkajärjestelyitä.

"Euroopan talouden suurin uhka on deflaatio"Verkkouutiset
Ilmarisen varatoimitusjohtaja Timo Ritakallio on huolissaan Suomen talouden alamäen jatkumisesta.

Mitä tapahtuu Portugalin kriisissä ja EU:ssa?Sirpa Abdallah / US

Eurooppalainen tilastokikkaHenri Myllyniemi / US

Nordea: EKP:llä ei ole aavistustakaan inflaation suunnastaVerkkouutiset

Eikö Suomen haukutuin duuni sovi perheelliselle?Mika Koskinen / IS
Työtä vuorotta 24/7-malliin. Työmäärään nähden huono palkka. Paljon matkustamista. Tasavallan haukutuin paikka, eräänlainen kusitolppien kusitolppa. Ei perheelliselle.

Taidemaalari Kaj Stenvall vaihtoi ankat Vladimir PutiniinNYT