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Thursday, April 3

3rd Apr - March PMI's, Saxo's Q2 Insights

(note: ECB-special updated, mandatory reading)

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Europe’s reforms beginning to pay off but continued effort needed OECD

It is time to save the EU Reuters
John Lloyd: Believe it or not, recent setbacks for the European Union leadership could actually help to save the EU. 

Why Europe can’t think strategicallyFT
Gideon Rachman: I do think it is fair to argue that the EU has never really had a Ukraine strategy. At no point, has it really worked out what the desired end-point of policy towards Ukraine should be – and what this might require in terms of resources and risks.

Gazprom’s $910 Billion Gaffe Shows Putin Economy WaningBB
Medvedev was off by $910 billion. Since he made that forecast, no company among the world’s top 5,000 has suffered a bigger collapse in market capitalization than Gazprom, a $154 billion plunge that’s become emblematic of the malaise that has overtaken President Vladimir Putin’s economy. The state-run company has tumbled three straight years in the stock market as it stepped up spending on everything from the Olympic games in Sochi to projects in Siberia.

Volume of retail trade up by 0.4% in euro area – Eurostat
Eurozone retail sales point to growth uptick in Q1 – TradingFloor
Euro retail sales stronger than expected in February – Danske Bank

ISM Non-Manufacturing: March Shows Improvement, But Slightly Below Expectations – dshort
ISM increases to 53.1 in March – Calculated Risk
ISM Weaker Than Expected – Bespoke

5 Things to Watch for in March Jobs Report – WSJ
Jobs preview: Pay less attention to the sausage, and more to how it’s made – WaPo

China - Government announces mini-stimulusDanske Bank
Economists React: China’s Mini-Stimulus a Break from the Past – WSJ

China Outlines Measures to Support Growth as Goal RecedesBB
China outlined a package of measures including railway spending and tax relief to support the economy and create jobs after a slowdown endangered Premier Li Keqiang’s target of 7.5 percent growth this year.

China Leverage Seen Rising Through 2016BB
China’s debt is poised to keep expanding faster than the economy through at least 2016, testing the limits of a credit-driven growth model that’s already exceeded the imbalances in Japan before its lost decade.

China stimulus: too little, too late?TradingFloor
With falling growth and mounting debt, the Chinese government is taking action: tax cuts for smaller firms, increasing railway investment; a mini stimulus package to ease the effects of the slowdown. The big question: Will it work?

EMEA Weekly, Week 15Danske Bank
The crisis in Ukraine has made NBP reconsider monetary tightening * A minor de-escalation of the Ukrainian crisis

Are Emerging Markets Still On the Receiving End?iMFdirect
The recent slowdown in emerging market growth is fueling a growing mania across markets and policy circles.


China Composite PMI Tumbles To 28-Month Lows As Services Fell (& Rose) – ZH
Price cuts aid first-quarter growth for euro zone businesses – Reuters
Euro zone private sector logs strongest quarter in three years – Reuters
Euro-Area Services Output Stays Close to 2011 High as ECB Meets – BB
German private sector expansion eases in March – Reuters
UK service sector expands steadily in March, points to strong Q1 growth – Reuters
U.K. Services Index Unexpectedly Falls to Nine-Month Low – BB

Equity Outlook: Paradise for stock pickersTradingFloor
Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy: While the equities party is far from over, investors will increasingly have to make specific country, sector and stock bets to outperform.

Commodity Outlook: Taking stockTradingFloor
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy: A whirlwind first quarter for commodities is unlikely to be repeated in Q2 as a perfect cocktail of ingredients will inevitably fade.

Macro Outlook: Strength in numbersTradingFloor
Mads Koefoed, Head of Macro Strategy: The global economy may not be in a stellar growth mode, but there is every sign that a recalibrated engine is shifting into a higher gear.

Forex Outlook: Dollar looks to springTradingFloor
John J Hardy, Head of FX Strategy: The USD looks set to leave behind its winter doldrums, while the EUR could be in for a tougher quarter. But Russia’s intervention in Ukraine could scupper markets if the crisis escalates.

Outlook: State of FluxTradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist & CIO: Europe faces its biggest electoral challenge in May and if Brussels listens to voters, it could mark a decisive turning point for the failing EU experiment. But there are fears that the opportunity will slip through its hands.

Toteutunut inflaatio ei ohjaile EKP:taRoger Wessman

Propagandasota alkoi SDP:ssäIL
Ryhmäjohtaja Jouni Backman epäilee, onko kohuttua Urpilaista ulos savustavaa lähetystöä oikeasti olemassakaan.

ValtionvelastaValtteri Aaltonen / US

Varoitus Suomelle: “Negatiivinen kierre voisi vahvistua”Uusi Suomi
Valtiovarainministeriö varoittaa Suomea negatiivisen kierteen vahvistumisesta taloudessa, jos maan talouspolitiikan uskottavuus menetetään.

Keskustelutilaisuus kehysriihen taustoittamiseksiVM
Julkisen talouden suunnitelma vuosille 2015–2018- VM