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Sunday, April 12

12th Apr - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. This post will be updated as new material is published.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Weekly ScoreboardBetween The Hedges

Friday’s Price MonitorGlobal Macro Monitor

Tyler’s Weekly Market WrapZH
Dollar Soars By Most In 43 Months; Stocks, Oil Surge In Week After Worst Payrolls Since 2013

Succinct summation of week’s eventsThe Big Picture

US Schedule for WeekCalculated Risk

Economic CalendarBerenberg
Chinese Q1 GDP: slowdown towards 7% * ECB: the effectiveness of QE * IMF and Worldbank spring meetings: potential growth decline in focus

Economic CalendarHandelsbanken

UK Next Week’s AgendaHandelsbanken

World Week Ahead – WSJ

Global Central Banks Calendar – WSJ

Week Ahead – ZH

5 Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar – WSJ

Wall St Week AheadReuters
Fed takes back seat as market shifts focus to earnings

Weighing the Week Ahead – A Dash of Insight

Global Week Ahead – BB

EU Week AheadWSJ

Weekly Market OutlookMoody’s

Weekly FocusDanske Bank
Next  week  China is  due  to publish  Q1  GDP.  We expect  the  release  to  show  that
China’s 7% growth for this year is already challenged * We expect no change or new signals on policy but we look for a dovish stance from Mario Draghi when the ECB meets on Thursday * We estimate a significant rebound in US core retail sales of 0.8% m/m in March * We expect US headline CPI to increase 0.2% m/m, which would take annual inflation out of deflationary territory * G-20 finance ministers and central bankers are set to meet in Washington next week

StrategyDanske Bank
US neutral policy rate lower – but not as low as the market prices * US output gap to close faster than expected * We look for higher US yields soon * Time for next leg down in EUR/USD * Euro data disappointed this week but economy still looks strong * Chinese inflation adds to expectations of more easing

Macro Weekly – ECB to dismiss QExit talkABN AMRO
The ECB has its first meeting next week since the beginning of asset purchases under its public sector programme started. President Draghi’s big challenge in the press conference will be to sound positive about the impact of QE and the outlook for the economy without sounding like it is going ‘too well’. He is likely to make it clear that the central bank  plans to continue asset purchases to at least September 2016 and we think he is likely to successfully dismiss talk of tapering or exit. This task will become much more challenging later in the year, and certainly in 2016, as the economy continues to gain momentum.

Week AheadNordea
Next week will bring Chinese Q1 GDP figures and we expect growth to be dipping to a new low. From the ECB meeting we expect no new policy measures. During the Q&A, Draghi will likely face questions on Greece and on possible future adjustments to the QE programme. US headline inflation is expected to rise again.

Weekly Market Summary - The Fat Pitch
Euro rates updateNordea

Euro Rates Weekly: QE hurting liquidityABN AMRO
We and the majority of investors in our survey fear that QE will harm liquidity * Bid ask spreads of 30y eurozone benchmark bonds suggest that these fears are grounded * Bond markets without an underlying bond future have witnessed widening of b/a spreads * Liquidity of AAA bonds will worsen because of QE purchases and a decreasing universe of bonds * Higher transaction costs and increased bond yield volatility are the main side effects of illiquidity

FX OutlookMarc to Market
Can't Keep a Good Buck Down

G10 FX Weekly – The dollar’s come-backABN AMRO
Come-back of the US dollar and the trend will probably accelerate next week * Surprises in CPI data next week will likely result in large currency moves

Divergence Drives the DollarMarc to Market

FX 4 next weekTF
JPY looking ready for further rally * EURUSD seeks support pre-ECB meeting * Little upside momentum for AUD and NZD * USDCHF is pulling back beyond parity

FX: Q2 > Q1Nordea
The Markets are questioning - trend on, or break? The worst is likely behind for the global economy and inflation in Q1. The technical bearish bat pattern for the USD is up for a test this week.

EM FX Weekly – The ruble’s recoveryABN AMRO
Sentiment in the Russian ruble improved * Asian central banks intervene in different directions * SGD to ease to 1.40 against the USD as the MAS is likely to adjust the S$NEER band

Economic Calendar –
Economic Calendar – BB
EU calendar –

Global Central Banks Calendar – WSJ
Central Bank Release Calendar – Daily FX