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EUROPE
The
impact of an exchange rate realignment on the trade balance: Euro vs. national
currency - Some preliminary results with a/simmetrie model of the Italian
economy – IDEAS
Frances
Coppola: Optimising the Eurozone – Pieria
Debunking
the Causes of the Eurozone Crisis – Yves
Smith
Swiss
told to vote again on free movement – Open
Europe
Despite the
Swiss public voting for restricting EU free movement, the EU has flat-out
refused to enter into negotiations on this topic. Open Europe's Pawel Swidlicki
looks at the implications not only for the wider EU-Swiss relationship but also
for the UK.
The ruble
has climbed 34 percent in just two months
GREECE
Time
running out on Greek debt talks, says top EU official – Reuters
"We
Have Come To The End Of The Road" – ZH
Greece prepares for debt default if talks
with creditors fail – FT
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB
Tries To Fix Money Markets It Broke, Fails – ZH
ECB
Taper Date "Announced" On Twitter; SocGen Begs To Diff – ZH
German 10-year
bond yields heading below zero – FT
The ECB
has expected AD growth right where it wants it – Scott Sumner
UNITED STATES
Flattening
Yield Curve Latest Complication for Fed – WSJ
ASIA
China's March exports shrink 15 percent
year-on-year in shock fall – Reuters
China: plunge in exports in March mainly
due to Chinese New Year – Danske
Bank
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hannon’s
Take: Have Central Banks Learned to Distinguish “Good” from “Bad” Deflation? * Richmond
Fed’s Lacker Still Sees Strong Case to Raise Rates in June * Minneapolis Fed’s
Kocherlakota: Fed Shouldn’t Raise Rates in 2015 * Germany’s Rising Wages Bode Well for Global
Economy * China Moves to Strengthen Control Over Its Policy Banks
Daily
Macro – WSJ
German
bonds are rallying ever further, with yields on 10-year debt approaching
negative territory… the data out of Beijing increasingly reflect the end of an
era of strong Chinese growth. A poor export performance demonstrates the bind
that the government is in; it can’t easily resort to a weaker yuan to boost
overseas demand.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Chinese GDP
to disappoint: Chinese growth likely cooled further in Q1 * Euro-area yields
pressured : Zero no longer a fantasy on the 10Y bund yield * The door is open
for more EUR/USD downside
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
Dollar
Extends Gains as China's Exports Slump
Daily
Shot – TF
Chinese
growth appears to be slowing, but a devaluation of the currency is not in line
with Beijing's hopes for the yuan. Meanwhile, US oil markets are having widespread
effects on the country's economy
US Open – ZH
China Stocks Soar To 7 Year High After
Collapse In Exports; US Futures Slip On Continuing Dollar Surge
FX
Update – TF
USD
strength has broadened to start the week as AUDUSD and NZDUSD pushed sharply
lower on a weak Chinese trade balance release. Meanwhile, EURUSD is trying to
make a stand in the 1.0600 area ahead of the ECB meeting on Wednesday.
From the
Floor – TF
We're not
recommending them yet, but Russian equities are blazing a trail and still have
some way to go yet, especially if oil fundamentals begin to change. Despite
some pickup though, there's no real sign of that yet.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT
What do we
know about candidate Clinton's economic policy views?
OTHER
KVP's
Macro Take: It's time for India, the baby China, to stand up – TF
The coming
week sees a flurry of Fed speakers and heavy economic data from the US and China (Q1 GDP) * Probably most
anticipated central bank meeting will be from the Bank of Canada * People may
have a snapshot of India, but they are missing the big
picture
ECONOMICS
*Report
to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies – US
Treasury
U.S.
warns Europe against relying too much on exports – Reuters
Pot,
kettle, QE – Breakingviews
The
limits of monetary policy – Frances
Coppola
Artificial
separation of fiscal and monetary policy cripples policymaking. It is time for
monetary and fiscal policymakers to acknowledge their joint role in generating
economic growth and preventing future crises.
Wolfgang
Münchau: Macroeconomists need new tools to challenge consensus – FT
For the
moment, the traditionalists still rule -
Outlaw
economics – The
Economist
Policies to
shift income from rich to poor may prove less effective than imagined
Should
we be spooked by deflation? A look at the historical record – vox
European
firm adjustment during times of economic crisis – ECB
Commercial
bank failures during the Great Recession: the real (estate) story – ECB
Exports
and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area
countries – ECB
Global
Financial Market Impact of the Announcement of the ECB's Extended Asset
Purchase Programme
– FED
Financial
assistance measures in the euro area from 2008 to 2013: statistical framework
and fiscal impact –
ECB
Cyclically
adjusted deficits and instability – Simon
Wren-Lewis
Paul Krugman: Where Government Excels – NYT
Yanis Varoufakis and Joseph Stiglitz – Youtube
Buiter
on the death of cash
– FT
The True
Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced Economies – PIIE
OFF-TOPIC
3 Things
Psychopaths Can Teach You About Being A Happier Person – Bakadesuyo
Watching
Rocky II with Muhammad Ali – Roger
Ebert
“The regular average layman couldn’t see what
I see. And the way they’re painting the trainer is all wrong. Look at him
there, screaming, Do this! and Do that! I never had anyone telling me what to
do. I did it. Shouting at the fighter like that makes him look like an animal,
like a horse to be trained.”
http://www.rogerebert.com/interviews/watching-rocky-ii-with-muhammad-ali
The Rise
and Fall of the Drexel Empire – BB
The
world will only get weirder – Steve
Coast
Six
Strategy Traps – Farnam
Street
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
EKP keskittyy toteuttamaan suunnitelmiaan | Suomen teollisuuden alkuvuosi surkea |
Inflaatio valokeilassa tällä viikolla
Jan Hurri: Kaksi liian vaikeaa kysymystä vaaleihin – TalSa
Vaaleihin on enää viikko aikaa, mutta ainakin pääpuolueet ja
niiden ehdokkaat vaikenevat visusti ainakin kahdesta Suomenkin talouden
kohtalon kysymyksestä ja todellisesta rakenneongelmasta: euron haitoista ja
euroalueen vaivihkaisesta liittovaltiokehityksestä.
Suomen viennin
romahdus – ennustettavaa joskin valitettavaa – Tyhmyri
Suomi: Teollisuuden alkuvuosi surkea – Nordea
Helmikuun teollisuustuotanto, uudet tilaukset sekä
tavaravienti kertovat karun tarinan. Suomalaisen teollisuuden alkuvuosi on
sujunut huomattavan heikosti.
"Velkaantumisen tie voi olla suomettumisen tie"
– Verkkouutiset
Keskuskauppakamarin toimitusjohtaja Risto E. J. Penttilä
varoittaa, että velkaantumiskehitys saattaa suistaa Suomen suomettumisen
tielle.
Maahanmuuton kustannuksista – VATT