27th Apr - Eventful week ahead

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

W/E: Weekly Support (updated)

Friday: Just the regulars

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EUROPE

Harold James: Democracy Versus Growth? –Project Syndicate

Europe’s ongoing malaise has reignited the old debate over which form of government produces better economic performance. Are authoritarian regimes, with their ability to ram through unpopular choices, more effective at generating growth, or does liberal democracy, with its built in checks and balances, yield greater prosperity?

Charting European profits: hope vs evidence – FT

Frances Coppola: Deutsche Bank's Record Fine Reveals Its Rotten Heart – Forbes

German foundation says UK may not lose much from Brexit – Open Europe

  GREECE

Greece: Grexit odds 30% and rising – Nordea

Yanis Varoufakis: A New Deal for Greece – Project Syndicate

Mohamed El-Erian: Europe has decoupled from Greece but investors may be too complacent – FT

Germany Prepares For exit: Greece needs ”Third, Fourth, Fifth Or Even More Bailouts" – ZH

The 'Relentless' Greek Debt Payment Schedule – ZH

Greece and the Historical Record – Marc Chandler

‘Time Is Running Out’ in Greek Bailout Talks, Says Mario Draghi – WSJ

Stephen Pope: Greece and the gamble on game theory – TF

Good To Know Eurozone Negotiations Focusing On The Really Important Stuff – Econospeak

Greece's Varoufakis Takes Hammering From Riled EU Ministers – BB

Euro Ministers Alarmed as Bloc Shuts Down Greece Plan B – BB

Germany hints at preparations of a Plan B on Greece – Reuters

Stephen Pope: Plan B – Eurozone banishment and bankruptcy? – TF

Greece’s Day of Reckoning Inches Closer as Payments Loom – BB

Euro zone warns Greece no cash till full reform deal – Reuters

Charles Wyplosz: The coming defaults of Greece – vox

Varoufakis Demoted in Reshuffle of Greece's Negotiating Team – Marc Chandler

Varoufakis "Containment" Sparks Buying-Panic In Greek Bonds – ZH

Greek Blame Game: At Whom Will History Point The Finger? – ZH

Syriza’s reshuffle: step forward a non-erratic Marxist – BBC

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

ECB’s Mersch: Not Punishing Countries That Break Fiscal Rules Hits Credibility – WSJ

ECB Seen Going All the Way on QE as Economists Doubt Taper – BB

ECB Paper Takes Stab at Measuring 2012 Euro Break-up Fears – WSJ

UNITED STATES

As Predicted, Dismal Durable Goods Sends Stocks To Record High – ZH

Merrill Lynch forecasting 1.5% GDP in Q1 – Bill McBride

Nomura Forecast: Q1 GDP at 1.0% - Bill McBride

Just 6 Charts – ZH

FOMC preview: Fed to downplay Q1 data weakness – Danske Bank

Merrill Lynch: FOMC Preview – Bill McBride

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: Missing From Secular Stagnation Debate, The Role of Enormous Debt * FedSpeak CheatSheet: Fed Officials Could Wait Longer to Raise Rates * Growing Doubts About China’s Growth Stats * Fitch Downgrades Japan Over Fiscal Concerns

Daily Macro – WSJ

Fitch Downgrades Japan, Greece-EU Negotiations Go Nowhere

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea

No progress on Greece, Can Greece stop rising German rates? * Fed in wait-and-see mode, Status quo may hurt USD * End of negative inflation?

Morning Markets – TF

Central banks are central stage this week as markets get ready for Wednesday's crunch FOMC meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia's governor and his Bank of Canada counterpart are also scheduled on the speech-making circuit. In Europe, the Greek debt drama drags on and there's no sign yet of a resolution.

Daily FX Comment – Marc to Market

Dollar Firmer in Quiet Turnover

Daily Shot – TF

On Saturday German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble seemed to be playing it coy with regard to plans to address a potential Greek default, payments on IMF loans are due on 5/1 (EUR0.2bn), and 5/12 (EUR0.8bn).

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

Greek Finance Minister increasingly side-lined as some Eurozone members begin to raise the prospect of a Plan B for Greece * Leaked Commission document suggests less than a quarter of economic reforms have been implemented in the EU * Spain announces desire to hold chairmanship of the Eurogroup *

US Open – ZH

Equity Futures At Session Highs Following Chinese QE Hints; Europe Lags On Greek Jitters

FX Update – TF

It should be a busy week, with four central bank meetings and Japan’s Prime Minister Abe touring the US. Expectations for the FOMC are very low, meaning it would be extremely easy for the Fed to surprise on the hawkish side.

From the Floor – TF

Live and From the Floor today, China is worried about becoming the next Brazil, oil shippers are worried Yemen will become the next Syria and everyone is worried about Greece.

Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT

Rent controls that aren't: Both Labour and its opponents make too much of a new policy

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

USA:n talouskasvu kiihtyy kesään mennessä | Fedin avomarkkinakomitean kokous keskiviikkona | Saksan IFO-indeksi kohosi

Anne Brunila: "Ei ole sellaista talouspolitiikkaa, joka loisi meille uudet vientimarkkinat" – TE

Talouspolitiikka ja uhkakuvat – Roger Wessman

Sipilä lupasi kunnon ohjelman – HS

Juha Sipilän ajatukset pohjustavat tulevaisuuden Suomea – Professorin ajatuksia

Hyvinvointivaltio numeroina – EVA

Kalle Isokallio: Pulaa työstä vai työntekijöistä? – IL

  LIBERA ”MITEN SUOMI PELASTETAAN”

[lehdistötiedote] Miten Suomi voidaan pelastaa – Talouspoliittinen manifesti – Libera

[raportti] Miten Suomi voidaan pelastaa – Libera

[tiivistelmä] Miten Suomi voidaan pelastaa – Libera

Nyt tuli lista Suomelle: lomia pois, työaikaa lisää, koulut maksullisiksi – TalSa

Suomen kriisin ”todellinen syy alkaa valjeta” – 15 vuoden harha – US

Vähittäiskaupan pikaennakko: maaliskuu edellisvuoden tasolla – Tilastokeskus

Kuluttajien odotukset omasta taloudesta nousussa – Tilastokeskus

Teollisuuden vaimeat näkymät vaikuttavat vientiodotuksiin – Verkkouutiset