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Thursday, April 23

23rd Apr - Not as good April PMIs

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Germany Won’t Veer From Euro-Recovery Recipe, Merkel SaysBB
Merkel Says Germany Will Continue to Push Eurozone Economic OverhaulsWSJ

Editorial: Spain’s Ominous Gag LawNYT

Simon Nixon: Standoff Between Greece and Creditors Over Bailout Deal Tests IMF – WSJ
Forget "Grexit", "Grimbo" Has Arrived – ZH
Gillian Tett: US fears a European sequel to Lehman Brothers – FT

ECB’s Praet Says Eurozone Getting Back on Growth Track – WSJ
Eurozone Risks Bad Inflation After Good Deflation – WSJ
Philippe Legrain: End the ECB Dictatorship! – Foreign Policy
ECB adjusts to new life as public enemy number one – FT

Global macro forecast — Central banks cannot fix it allHandelsbanken
US: Fed remains on track for a first rate rise this year * Eurozone: Deflationary pressures despite economic recovery * Labour market and wages: Labour markets improve, but what about wages? * China: Deceleration continues * Sweden: Not a lot of slack in the labour market

Recap 2015-04-22: My TakeGlobal Macro Trading
Data over the next few weeks are likely to be quite important. If the recent string of data disappointments continue, analysts as well as the Fed are likely to need to reassess their growth projections.

FX Watch – Asian FX : Short term repriveABN AMRO
We have become less bearish on the short term outlook for the Chinese yuan, Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar, South Korean won and Thai baht. The Fed does not look likely to hike in the near term, while there are also various positive domestic developments, with policy settings likely to be a less negative factor. However, our year end forecasts for Asian currencies remain unchanged as we still think that financial markets are underestimating the pace of rate hikes in the US, while domestic risks remain.

Japan April flash manufacturing PMI contracts for first time in 11 months – Reuters
China: disappointing PMI leaves room for more easing – Nordea

Euro area: PMIs provide evidence of still fragile growth – Nordea
EMU Comment — PMI already losing steam? – Handelsbanken
Euro-Region Output Growth Slows as Economy Awaits QE Effect – BB
Weaker euro PMIs suggest GDP growth peaked in Q1 – Danske Bank
French weakness hits eurozone recovery – FT

US PMI Misses By Most On Record As New Orders Tumble – ZH
Markit U.S. Manufacturing Index Fell to Three-Month Low in April – BB
U.S. factory activity growth slows in April: Markit – Reuters

The IMF’s Harmful Debt Restructuring Proposal – PIIE
Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset – IMF
Labour market adjustments in Europe and the US: How different? – ECB
Deficit targeting vs Debt targeting – Worthwhile
Can reforms only be expected to pay off in the long run? – Bruegel

Daily Central Banks – WSJ
Douglas’s Take: BOE Sees Little Sign Lowflation Threatens Spending * ECB Raises Ceiling on Emergency Lending to Greek Banks * ECB’s Praet Says Eurozone Getting Back on Growth Track * Abe Ally Says Bank of Japan Must Ease Again * Swiss Central Bank Move Causes Franc to Tumble

Daily MacroWSJ
The latest purchasing managers’ surveys for China and the eurozone were soft – China’s the weakest in a year. The surveys justify the easy money policies being pursued by both central banks. Throw in the U.S.’s first-quarter wobble and some worrying signs from emerging markets and suddenly there’s a big question mark about where the global economy is heading.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Various officials suggest Greek talks are progressing but that a deal is not close…end of June is the official deadline, but the Greek government only has cash to May * Strong US housing demand to boost residential investment in the coming time

Euro rates updateNordea

Yields rise while Chinese manufacturing slows down * Focus on Euro-area PMIs – time for a setback? * Only temporary stabilisation of long Bund yields * SNB hits CHF

Morning MarketsTF
Purchasing managers indices are top of the data pile both in Europe and the US today with the market particularly keen for an update on how Germany is faring. Elsewhere, US weekly oil inventories should give us some direction on crude and later in the session, three of the biggest internet players publish earnings reports.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Disappointing Data Weigh on Equities, but Leaves Dollar Uninspired

Daily ShotTF
Every day seems to bring fresh evidence of economic deterioration in China. And with short-term rates sliding, stocks looking increasingly frothy and business sentiment getting gloomier, it looks like the PBoC will have to loosen the monetary policy reins rather much and rather soon.

Futures Unexpectedly Red Despite Disappointing Economic Data From Around The Globe

From the FloorTF
The NZD's namesake bird was never known for its aerial manoeuvres, but the combination of poor Chinese PMI data and some distinctly dovish RBNZ statements have left it even more hopelessly grounded than is its humble norm.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
The verdict on spoofing: In the court of public opinion at least, Sarao has done nothing wrong

Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit pysyvät korkealla | Kiinan teollisuuden alakulo jatkuu | Saksan 10-vuotinen korko vakaantunut väliaikaisesti

Ykkösaamu: Hallituksen Eurooppa-haasteetYle Areena
Uuden hallituksen EU-haasteita arvioimassa Satu Hassi, Sampo Terho ja Matti Vanhanen. Esillä myös naisten asema, toimiiko naisten yhteistyö eduskunnassa Arja Juvonen, Jaana Pelkonen ja Nasima Razmyar vieraina. Kolumnisti Terttu Utriaisen aiheena yrittäminen ja köyhyys. Toimittajana Päivi Neitiniemi.

Kahvakiekkoa Sipilän sääntökirjalla Mitä olisi tutkittava

Aho: "Talousneuvoston kokoukset kuin hartaustilaisuuksia"KL
Valta keskitettäisiin strategiselle ministerivaliokunnalle ja myös valtiosihteerit saisivat mennä, mikäli ex-pääministerin neuvoja noudatetaan.

Suursijoittaja paljasti uudelle hallitukselle ilouutisen taloudesta – IL
"Leikkaukset eivät vaativa tehtävä, jos vertaa siihen mitä olemme Kreikalta vaatineet" – TE
Varman Murto: Luvut pelottavan hyviä – KL
Varma teki vuoden tuotot kolmessa kuukaudessa – "meno pelottavaa" – HS

Maaliskuun työttömyysaste 10,3 prosenttia – Tilastokeskus
TE-toimiston ovi käy - Työttömiä työnhakijoita maaliskuussa jo 347 000 – TE
Entistä useampi oli työtä vailla maaliskuussa – YLE
Ekonomistin varoitus: Piilo- ja pitkäaikaistyöttömyys nousivat merkittävästi – Verkkouutiset
Pääekonomisti: Pitkäkestoiset ongelmat pahenevat – KL