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Tuesday, April 14

14th Apr - IMF's outlook, bad US retail sales

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The Commission’s power of initiative: the CJEU sets important constraintsSteve Peers

John Plender: Europe’s debtor paradise will end in tearsFT
Nasty surprises lurk for those who have embraced negative yields

Finland: No alternatives to voting for changeNordea
Finland will vote on Sunday. While the results will not lead to a meltdown in Finnish bond markets, the elections will have longer-term consequences for markets. A Centre-led coalition will look quite different depending on which other parties are joining. While there are no real alternatives to voting for big changes in the Finnish economy, the nature of those changes is still in the air.

Peripheral EU Bond Risk Surges As Grexit Contagion SpreadsZH

Results of the April 2015 euro area bank lending survey – ECB
Euro zone banks see loan demand rising after ECB money printing – Reuters

Pace of ECB bond buying slows as QE enters second month – Reuters
Will Mario Draghi Leave the ECB Without Ever Raising Rates? – BB
German Yields Fall to Records as Moody’s Warns on Bond Scarcity – BB
Moody’s Adds to Doubts Over Sourcing Bonds for Eurozone QE – WSJ
5 Points to Watch in the ECB’s April Press Conference – WSJ
Mads Koefoed: Talk of early QE end surfaces – TF
Talk of an ECB Taper? Forget It for Now – WSJ
Juhani Huopainen: Where to find the bonds to buy? – TF

Business investment rate stable at 21.9% in the euro area – Eurostat
Household saving rate up to 13.0% in the euro area – Eurostat
Rise in Eurozone Savings Rate Sounds Deflation Alarm – WSJ
Industrial production up by 1.1% in euro area – Eurostat

Retail Sales increased 0.9% in March – Bill Mc Bride
Retail Sales Misses For 4th Month In A Row – ZH
Stocks Slide, Dollar, & Bond Yields Tumble After Retail Sales Miss – ZH
Retail sales rebound, post largest gain in a year – Reuters
Weak Retail Sales Maybe Just Strong Enough – WSJ
Rebound in retail sales not as strong as expected – Danske Bank

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Look For Signs of a U.S. Consumer Spending Rebound in Retail Data * Fed Taking Applications for Community Advisory Council * Fed Seeks Comment on Technical Details of Interest on Reserves Power * New York Fed Still Searching for Cause of Oct. 15′s Wild Treasury Volatility * As Interest Benchmarks Go Negative, Banks May Have to Pay

Daily MacroWSJ
We’ve had more positive signs that the European Central Bank’s aggressive new “quantitative easing” bond-buying program is having some effect. Not only are banks starting to ease their lending standards, but industrial production appears to be accelerating. A key question will be whether the ECB starts to signal its satisfaction with this pickup and whether that affects the intended longevity of its program, which is currently programmed at $60 billion-per-month “at least” until September next year. That in turn will impact how other central banks respond.

Danske Daily Danske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Commodity outlook dampened by oil and precious metals in near term…but we expect CRB index to firm later in the year on stronger global demand * Dollar has a strong start to the week and further gains are expected this week

Euro rates updateNordea

Positive US news: US retail sales to rebound * Chinese GDP growth to new low, markets to wake up? * With EUR 61.7bn bought so far, the ECB’s PSPP continues to be on target * The SNB not seen in the FX market yet

Morning MarketsTF
The key data today is US retail sales. This has been weak for the last two-to-three months and it needs to pick up if traders are to believe in this strong US recovery narrative.

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Dollar Underpinned Ahead of Retail Sales

Daily ShotTF
Despite that massive injection of QE cash into the system, USDJPY continues to trade flat. Is QE fatigue starting to dominate the markets?

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Labour manifesto pledges reform of EU budget, CAP and immigration rules * Greek government denies reports it is considering default or early elections * Chief EU-US free-trade deal negotiator complains about lack of support from European leaders * ECB suggests asset purchases have helped boost lending to real economy * Gazprom warns Europe may face higher gas prices * Dutch member of EU Court of Auditors: Incomprehensible that MEPs keep signing off on EU accounts * Wilders: Islam does not belong in Germany *

Futures Slump As Asian Stock Bubble Calls A Timeout

FX UpdateTF
USDJPY was toppled from a fresh attempt to break higher yesterday on comments from an Abe advisor, but the USD should pick up the pace again across the board if we get a strong March US Retail Sales report.

From the FloorTF
Today's Asian session saw a significant uptick in the Singaporean dollar, but the yen was the real story as a close adviser to Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe told press that he would like to see USDJPY at 1.05.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
China shocker - How surprised should we be by the trade collapse?

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), April 2015IMF
Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR)IMF
Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks

Fiscal Monitor (FM)IMF
Now Is the Time: Fiscal Policies for Sustainable Growth

Olivier Blanchard: Four Forces Facing the Global Economy – iMFdirect
Five key takeaways from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook – FT
Surging Dollar to Boost Europe, Japan as U.S. Slows, IMF Says – BB
IMF: Euro Depreciation Will Restrain the U.S. and China for Years – WSJ
Supply or Demand? The IMF Breaks Down the Collapse of Oil Prices – WSJ
IMF Forecasts Greece Will Be Europe's Fastest Growing Country – ZH
India’s growth to outstrip China, says IMF – FT

EKP:n ostot painavat korkoja |  USA:n vähittäismyyntiluvut viitteitä kevään elpymistahdista | Kreikka uhkaa jättää maksamatta touko- ja kesäkuun lainaerät IMF:lle

IMF pitää EKP:n ostoista kuplavaarasta huolimattaSuomen Uutiset

Kreikka valmistautuu velkojen laiminlyönteihinHenri Myllyniemi / US

Vähittäiskauppa helmik. -0.7% YoYTilastokeskus