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Wednesday, April 29

29th Apr - USD sell-off on GDP, but Fed reverses

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Tuesday: UK's Q1 GDP not great            

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Tony Barber: The populist surge has peaked but it will leave a bitter legacyFT
Harsher tone seeps into national identity and immigration debate

Paul Krugman: The case for cuts was a lie. Why does Britain still believe it? The Guardian

FX Comment: Riksbank steps up QE – ABN AMRO
Sweden’s Riksbank expands QE to boost recovery – FT

UBS: How Will Greece Default? Let Us Count The Ways – ZH
So what’s the problem with Grexit? – Tyler Cowen
Can Greece Default and Keep the Euro? – BB
Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem says Greece will not make it without aid – Reuters
Greek Banks Get More Funds as ECB Weighs Collateral Discount – BB
Greek Deposits Lowest Since 2005; One Third Of Bank Assets ECB-Funded – ZH

April 2015: Economic Sentiment broadly unchanged – EC
March 2015: Monetary developments – ECB
Euro-Area Bank Lending Increases for First Time Since 2012 – BB
ECB’s QE supports money supply and bank lending – Danske Bank
Super Mario Unblocks Europe’s Credit Pipes – WSJ

As Much as a Third of Discouraged Workers Might ReturnWSJ
There is still plenty of room for improvement in the U.S. job market despite recent strides, according to a new working paper from the International Monetary Fund.

  Q1 GDP
GDP First Release – BEA
Weather and Trade Depress First Quarter GDPCEPR
By One Measure, The U.S. Economy Finally Hit 3% GDP Growth – WSJ
Economists React to the First-Quarter GDP Report: ‘That Was Pretty Ugly’ – WSJ
US Growth Disappoints, Dollar Pays Price – Marc Chandler
Q1 GDP Tumbles Below Expectations, Rises Paltry 0.2% - ZH
GDP "Bad News": Stocks, Bonds, Gold Lower, Dollar Bounce – ZH
US economy stagnated in Q1 as exports dropped on USD – TF
This Forecasting Model Just About Nailed the Weak U.S. GDP Number – BB
Q1 GDP20 Cent
U.S. growth outlook snowed under yet again – Reuters
Another Year, Another Weak First Quarter for GDP. What Gives? – WSJ
The economy’s biggest weakness is … winter? – WaPo

Fed Decision Day Guide: From Cooling Economy to Forward Guidance – BB
FOMC Preview: Low expectations, low surprise potential? – TF

Highlights from the Fed’s April Policy Statement – WSJ
Fed Stays Vague on Rate-Hike Timing, but Sees Slower Growth as Blip – WSJ
Parsing the Fed: How the Statement Changed in April from March – WSJ
Hilsenrath: Fed Not Worried About Q1 Growth, Rate Hikes Coming – ZH
Bonds, Stocks Shrug As Hawkish Fed Sparks Dollar Surge, Commodity Purge – ZH
Fed Keeps Options Open – Marc Chandler
Redacted Version of the April 2015 FOMC Statement – David Merkel
FOMC Snoozer – Tim Duy
Tepid growth could stall Fed – Reuters

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Here’s What the Pros Are Saying About the Fed Ahead of Policy Meeting * Five Things to Watch at This Week’s Fed Meeting * ECB’s Weidmann: Greek Debt Situation Remains ‘Precarious’ * Sweden’s Riksbank Increases Asset Purchases * Thailand Cuts Interest Rate in Surprise Move

Daily MacroWSJ
The flow of good news from the eurozone continues, with the latest money supply data showing increasing strength. This suggests the ECB’s asset purchase stimulus is flowing to the wider economy as the flood of liquidity finally breaches the banking sector blockage. But European equity markets were mostly on hold in early trade as investors awaited U.S. first-quarter GDP numbers and the statement from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
The FOMC is likely to keep its communication unchanged as it waits for more data * UK GDP disappointed, but surveys point to rebound – still political risk should weigh on sterling * Proportion of covered bonds with negative yields increasing – curve to flatten further

Euro rates updateNordea

Eye-Opener Nordea
FOMC, US GDP and Riksbank in the spotlight * Higher US yields and USD weakness ahead of the Fed  as softness priced in * A fortunate comfort zone for German bonds

Morning MarketsTF
Today sees the Federal Open Market Committee release its latest policy report and USD bulls are hoping the magicians at the Fed won't pull any doves out of their collective hat.

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Dollar Remains Under Pressure ahead of FOMC

Daily ShotTF
Oil prices may be well below last summer's highs, but Americans are taking to the road in droves and gasoline prices are beginning to reflect the increased demand.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Juncker hints at Treaty changes to accommodate UK concerns * Dijsselbloem warns that Greece "does not have the time” for a referendum * Clegg: I am not going to draw a red line against having an EU referendum * Irish government promises expansionary budgets and claims that a deal with the Eurozone to reduce debt is “not off the table” * AfD infighting sees anti-euro party fall below 5% in new poll * Renzi puts his party at risk of split over new electoral law * Cyprus issues €1bn worth of seven-year debt at interest rate of 4% *

Futures Flat On FOMC, GDP Day; Bunds Battered After Euro Loans Post First Increase In Three Years

From the FloorTF
Twitter came, saw and beat a hasty old retreat, but the results were really not that bad and the subsequent share plunge may have been overcooked. Elsewhere, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will dominate.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Two meetings in Washington: The economic stakes in Abe's address to Congress and the Fed policy statement

Risto Pennanen: Työn tarjonta ei ratkaise talouskriisiäTalSa

Johannes Niemeläinen: Kreikka konkurssiin, sitäkö keskusta aikoo?TalSa

Sipilän 15 kysymystä – koveneeko europolitiikka?Antti Ronkainen

Päiväunia Apollonkadulla – keskustan harhainen europolitiikkaTyhmyri

Näkökulma: Sipilä hakisi valtaa Brysselistä takaisin kotiinYLE

Yritysten suhdannearviot aavistuksen parempaan suuntaan – EK
Teollisuuden luottamusindikaattorit huhtikuussa 2015 – EK