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Tuesday, April 7

7th Apr - Post-holiday Greek tensions

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Ben Bernanke: Germany's trade surplus is a problemBrookings
Eleven Negative Surprises in the Euro AreaPIIE

Britain and the European Union: The Brexit dilemmaThe Economist
In the longer term, Britain’s discomfort with the EU may turn out to be a bigger risk than Greece’s

Stubb turns on coalition allies in battle for re-election in FinlandFT

Germany’s political logjam: An uncomfortable arrangement The Economist
Neither party in Angela Merkel’s grand coalition really wants to be there

Spain Joins Negative Yield Club WSJ
Spain: Foreigners own over half of debt, bills below 0% for first time ever – ZH

Greece draws up drachma plans, prepares to miss IMF payment – The Telegraph
Greece Brandishes Drachma, Threatens Euro Exit – Wolf Street
Greece says ready to make IMF payment on April 9 – Reuters
Exclusive: Greece tells creditors it will run out of cash on April 9 – Reuters

What De-Leveraging? ECB QE To Drive $600 Billion in New IssuanceZH

Data on QE show asymmetrical purchase patterns; negative rates have a role in itSober Look

ECB Hits March Bond Purchase TargetWSJ

Why ECB's March Purchase Of €11 Billion In German Treasurys Will Be A ProblemZH

ECB Quantitative Easing on trackBruegel
In its first month of purchases the ECB roughly respected its commitments in terms of country allocation but less so in terms of market neutrality

ECB: What could trigger a policy reversal?Nordea
At the moment everybody is fixated at Euro area monetary policy easing. Hopefully not too far from now we should start looking at the indicators essential for the first tightening move. The real economy will give us the first signs of policy reversal. Inflation safely above zero, long term inflation expectations steadily close to 2 % and a broad based recovery in the real economy should be in place before we will see the ECB scale back unconventional measures and ultimately hike rates.

What Seems to Be Holding Back Labor Productivity Growth, and Why It MattersFED

Yellen shoots for ‘equilibrium’ interest ratesFT

Bankers Want Fed To Reveal Method Behind What They Say Is MadnessWSJ

5 Things to Watch in the Fed’s March MinutesWSJ

April Macro Update: Weak Month, But The Trend Is PositiveThe Fat Pitch

How March’s Jobs Report Could Affect Rate Liftoff – WSJ
Jobs Report: Is Bad News Bad News Again? – WSJ
March Payrolls Huge Miss: +126K, Worst Since December 2013 – ZH
Bad News Is Bad News: Stocks Down, Bonds Up, Carry Trades Unwind – ZH
Wage Growth In America Has Never Been Higher... For Your Boss – ZH
Goldman: "The Right Policy Would Be To Put Hikes On Hold For Now" – ZH
Poor US Jobs Report Sends Dollar Reeling – Marc to Market
U.S. Employment Situation – March 2015 – Global Macro Monitor
March Jobs Report – The Numbers – WSJ
Whether Jobs Weakness Will Continue or Prove an Aberration – WSJ
Why Are Wages Growing Slowly Despite McDonald’s, Wal-Mart Raises? – WSJ
The March Jobs Report in 11 Charts – WSJ
Today's NFP Miss Means Little For Equities and The Economy – The Fat Pitch
March Employment Report: 126,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate – Calculated Risk
Employment Report Comments and Graphs – Calculated Risk
Air Pocket – Tim Duy
Be Nervous (But Not Panicked) About The March Jobs Report – FiveThirtyEight
Report a Wake-Up Call About the Impact of the Strong Dollar – BB
Job growth falls back after a run of strong months – Danske Bank

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hannon’s Take: The Great Oil Price Easing * Fed’s Dudley Says Rate-Rise Timing Uncertain * Canadian Firms Paring Investment, Hiring Plans Amid Tepid Sales Outlook * In Surprise Move, Australia Holds Rates * India’s Central Bank Leaves Key Lending Rate Unchanged

Daily MacroWSJ
We’ve been among those suggesting that the pattern of monetary policy-easing maneuvers around the world risks stoking a stealth currency war. So, it was sobering to see central banks defy that trend and keep investors on their toes Tuesday. Whereas the Reserve Banks of both Australia and India had ample excuse to cut rates today, especially because the U.S. dollar has weakened on the back of soft U.S. economic data, neither took the bait.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Weak payrolls, Greek T-bill auction gathering interest this week, Norwegian inflation ahead

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Dollar Comes Back Bid

Morning MarketsTF

Daily ShotTF
Chinese stocks continue to rally, also REIT showed an impressive total return over the last year. But not all national economies are doing well. While Spain is picking up, Brazil and Russia are facing challenges.

Back From Holiday, European Stocks Celebrate Atrocious US Jobs Data, Jump Over 1%

FX UpdateTF
The USD looks relatively resilient, given the weak employment report from Friday, but can’t seem to build a convincing direction move either way and remains in tactical limbo. Overnight, the RBA shocked by not easing rates, which most were expecting, but the AUD upside may prove limited.

From the FloorTF
The Reserve Bank of Australia may have pulled a hawk from its hat today, but the surprise was not enough to make AUDUSD jump too far out of its seat.

Capital control measures: A new datasetvox
A renewed interest in capital controls following the Great Recession requires a serious empirical reconsideration of their effectiveness as policy instruments. This column introduces a new dataset that features unprecedented levels of disaggregation between asset categories, and distinguishes transactions between residents and non-residents. The ensuing debate should take note.

Eurozone interbank lending market during the Global and EZ crisesvox
The Global Crisis and subsequent sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone severely distressed wholesale funding markets. This column argues that in the Eurozone, interbank funding conditions tightened particularly for cross-border borrowing. Moreover, during the worst moments of the crisis, the same borrower bank could pay different prices (up to 100 basis points) for identical loans during the same day. Non-standard monetary policy measures help mitigate these liquidity disruptions, with stronger effects in countries under distress.

Jobs Find Workers, Not The Other Way Around, SF Fed Paper FindsWSJ

Oil TravailsMarc to Market

Energy Monitor April – Lower oil price, recovery in late 2015ABN AMRO
Threat of expanding oil supply, increasing risk of even lower oil prices * Impact of low oil prices on oil production and demand will become visible in second half of 2015 * Search for new equilibrium will be accompanied by heightened volatility and large price swings

Misinterpretations of New Data on International ReservesPIIE

World Economic Outlook: Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term FactorsIMF
Chapter 3. Where Are We Headed? Perspectives on Potential Output * Chapter 4. Private Investment: What's the Holdup?

Bernanke: Should monetary policy take into account risks to financial stability?Brookings
As expected, Ben is with LarsScott Sumner

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Pettymys vaihtuu Fed-yliherkkyydeksi | Tänään julkistetaan Suomen ulkomaankaupan luvut | Keskuspankit huomion keskipisteenä

Euro kuohuttaa Puolan presidentinvaaleissaSuomen Uutiset

Suomen Perustan raportti vähättelee somalien ja irakilaisten kustannuksiaProfessorin ajatuksia

Suomi, syntyvyys ja maahanmuutto – maahanmuutto ei ratkaise ikärakenteen tuomia ongelmia - Tyhmyri

Pertti Haaparanta: Ruotsi on elvyttänytAkateemin talousblogi

Roger Wessman: Helmikuussa vienti palautui vain vaisustiMarketnoze

Jan Hurri: Eihän puhuta Kreikasta ennen vaaleja, eihänTalsa
Kreikan kriisi on Suomen vaalitaistoa käyville poliitikoille epämieluisa puheenaihe. Kiusallista aihetta ei voi kuitenkaan vältellä kuin korkeintaan juuri ja juuri vaalien yli. Seuraava hallitus saa ensi töikseen eteensä vaikean valinnan: Kreikan uusi rahoituspaketti, velka-armahdus tai euron osittainen hajoaminen.

Muutosvastarintaa vai jotain muuta?Hannu Visti

Johtaisiko Kreikan konkurssi euroeroon ja olisiko tämä katastrofi Kreikalle?Eurothinktank