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Thursday, April 2

2nd Apr - Greece and Friday's payrolls loom

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Euro Debate Ignites in East EU in Face of Public SkepticismBB
While Greece may have one foot out the door, policy makers in the European Union’s east are reopening the debate about whether to join the euro area after years of shunning the currency during the global financial crisis.

New eurogroup president: Dijsselbloem vs de GuindosFT
Most believe it will come down to a political showdown between the EU’s two main pan-European party groups, the centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left Party of European Socialists.

Economic Surveys: France 2015OECD

Athens threatens IMF default if Eurozone won't release funds – TF
Samaras Says He’d Join Alliance to Keep Greece in Euro – BB
Euro zone, Athens closer to Greek reform list, more work needed: euro zone official – Reuters
ECB Said to Raise ELA Limit for Greek Banks by 700 Million Euros – BB
Is Merkel facing a Bundestag rebellion on Greece? – Open Europe
BofAML: D-Day On April 9, Default Within 30 Days Of Missed Payment – ZH

Account of the monetary policy meeting - ECB
Buiter on why the ECB as a whole can’t go bustFT
The point, fundamentally, is that the ECB can always issue cash to pay off its euro-denominated liabilities, regardless of whether anyone wants the currency or not.

Euro Rates Watch: Solving the securities lending puzzleABN AMRO

Europe’s Secret Demands Make Banks a Guessing Game for Investors – BB
The secrecy surrounding Europe’s new capital targets is unsettling some investors and analysts who say they’re being kept in the dark about the health of the region’s banks.

Germany Leads Senior Bank Debt Revamp to Ease Bail-InBB
The EU put senior bondholders in line for losses when banks fail, and Germany is leading the drive to make them actually take the hit should the time come.

The Fed’s grudging embrace of inflation targeting, part 2FT

The maddening conundrum-redux conundrumFT
How would the Fed react if long-term US Treasury rates fail to rise after it has started lifting policy rates?

Summers and Bernanke are having the most important blog fight everWaPo

Yellen Opening Remarks At Fed Conference — Live FeedZH
Yellen: Economic Inequality Long An Interest Of The FedWSJ

Japan on Brink of Another GDP ContractionWSJ

Japan Watch – Will the BOJ meet its inflation target?ABN AMRO
We expect further monetary easing in July, with the risk that it could be earlier, and core inflation (ex food) to reach 1.0% in FY 2015.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Q2 Central Bank Outlook Points to Cuts in Asia, Uncertainty in U.S. * Global Central Banking in 2015: A Second-Quarter Update for 25 Economies * Fed’s Lockhart Expects Economy to Pick Up in Second Quarter * Bank of Japan Dissenter Wants to Disarm Monetary ‘Bazooka’ * Momentum Builds to Label Chinese Yuan a Reserve Currency

Daily MacroWSJ
Is this a temporary blip caused by cold weather as most believe, or more a protracted slowdown? And will it cause the Fed to pause in its move to increase rates?

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global Daily: Eurozone overtaking the US?ABN AMRO
The eurozone manufacturing PMI rose above the ISM index in March * We expect eurozone growth surprises, but ISM might be understating strength of US economy * Greece’s new reform plan relies on optimistic assumptions about tax collection

New yield lows * Downside risks to US non-farm payrolls, potential to trigger rebound in yields * EUR/USD may react more strongly to positive NFP surprise than vice versa

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Dollar Sets Back After Testing Top of Range

Daily ShotTF
Lately several emerging economies disappointed and while also the US economic indicators are not positive and recovery has been the slowest in recent history, US is yet leading global growth now.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Questions grow around Greece’s ability to pay IMF despite submitting improved reform list * French Economy Minister: I believe in two-speed or multi-speed Europe * Doubts remain over EU Commission’s flagship investment fund

Futures, Dollar Drift Lower, Oil Slides Ahead Of "Whisper Miss" Payrolls

FX UpdateTF
The USD rally was tripped up yesterday by weak US data, and the greenback may face a further consolidation if tomorrow’s payrolls don’t support. Elsewhere, AUD weakness is profound.

The EUR & Reserve Managers, the Outlook for Risk ParityGlobal Macro Trading

FX Convictions – Maintaining our US dollar long viewsABN AMRO
Since our latest report on 10 March, we have kept in place our long US dollar views versus the euro, the yen the Australian dollar and Sterling. We have also recently added the New Zealand dollar to our conviction list of currencies that will underperform the US dollar.

A Closer Look: Emerging Markets Short Side of Long

This time is not different, USD editionFT
HSBC: “participants now seem to be buying the USD not based on a change in fundamentals but instead because they believe the rally will extend further. This is a classic mentality associated with unsustainable moves”.

Commodity Watch – Prices versus volatilityABN AMRO
Over the last decade commodity prices have rallied exponentially but also crashed sharply. What have been the drivers behind these sharp swings and how did commodity price volatility behave? Although there are some exceptions, volatility tends to behave asymmetrically depending on the direction of the price move. In general, volatility tends to rise sharply during substantial commodity price sell-offs. However, occasionally, individual commodity price volatility increases also happen when commodity prices rally sharply. Often this is when price peaks are in the making as was the case for gold prices in 2011 and sugar prices in 2010.

Mr Crude Meets Mr Minsky Round TwoMarc to Market
At the end of last year, we argued that the Minsky moment had come to oil.  That after years of high prices and ideas that oil prices could only go up, there was extensive leveraging in the energy sector broadly conceived, that would have to be unwind. 

Contours of Macroeconomic Policy in the FutureiMFdirect

Dollari saa uusia suuntaviivoja perjantaina | Yksityinen kulutus puhaltaaa Tanskan talouteen vauhtia | Nigerian uutta presidenttiä odottavat suuret haasteet

Jan Hurri: Saksan kanssa yhtä mieltä – tasapainosta viisTalSa
Saksan liittokansleri Angela Merkel muistutti viikonloppuna Helsingissä, että Suomella ja Saksalla on euroalueen kriisissä yhteinen linja. Niin onkin: kumpikin penää talouteen tasapainoa mutta kehuu silti suurinta tasapainohäirikköä mallimaaksi. Tasapainosta ja muista viis, kunhan Saksan vienti vahvistuu.

Taloudellinen katsaus, kevät 2015VM
Tämän vuoden kasvuksi ennustetaan 0,5 viisi prosenttia, kun vielä keväällä 2014 ennuste oli 1,5 prosenttia. Vielä viime talvena kasvun arvioitiin yltävän 0,9 prosenttiin. Kuluvan vuoden kasvun odotetaan vilkastuvan ulkomaankaupan kasvun myötä. Sen sijaan kotimaan kysyntä pysyy hitaana.

Ekonomistit erimielisiä valtiovarainministeriön ennusteestaSuomenmaa

Rinne: Suomen tilanne ymmärretään EU:ssaIL

Julkisen talouden suunnitelma 2016-2019VM
Valtioneuvosto hyväksyi julkisen talouden suunnitelman 2016–2019VM

Aki Kangasharju: Hallitus tuonut Suomeen Saksan työmarkkinamalliaNordea
Saksa onnistui parantumaan Euroopan ”sairaasta miehestä” työreformilla. Suomessa vastustetaan Saksan mallia vetoamalla siihen, että uudistus johtaisi sellaisten töiden lisääntymiseen, joilla ei elä.

Roope Uusitalo: Elvytä, leikkaa, elvytä… - Akateeminen talousblogi

Johannes Niemeläinen: Kaksi keynesiläistä vastaan monetaristitTalSa
Elvytyspolitiikalle ei ole tilaa, kun kaikki ovat nyt monetaristeja.

[presentaatio pdf] Työmiehen tuumaustunti – PS
[kirja] Maahanmuutot ja Suomen julkinen talous – Suomen Perusta
PS: Työikäisten maahanmuutosta 700 miljoonan kulut Suomelle – Helsingin Uutiset
Perussuomalaiset valmiita maahanmuuton rajoittamiseen kansallisuuden mukaan – YLE
Suomen Perustalta tutkimus maahanmuuton kustannuksista – Suomen Uutiset
Perussuomalaisten hurja laskelma maahanmuuton kustannuksista – IL
Perussuomalaiset haluaisivat rajata maahanmuuttoa syntyperän perusteella – MTV
Maahanmuutosta perussuomalainen laskelma – US
Kommentti: Rasisti! Somalien hyysääjä! – MTV