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Wednesday, April 15

15th Apr - Bad Chinese and US macro, Boring ECB

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Economic integration in Europe: Insights from a new indexvox
Despite a significant progress over the past decades, European integration still needs improvement in some areas. This column presents a long-term narrative of European integration by using a recently published European index of regional institutional integration. The index maps developments in European integration from 1958 to early 2015 on the basis of a new monthly dataset. The evidence shows that successful integration could be achieved with reforms that are inclusive, widely explained, understood, and accepted.

A new CEPR Report: A New Start for the Eurozone: Dealing with Debtvox
The Eurozone’s problems of poor growth and the threat of financial instability are rooted in its very foundation. The authors of the inaugural Monitoring the Eurozone report, launched today, consider three means by which the Eurozone can protect itself from structural failure. Their recommendations, which do not require Treaty changes, are crucial in offsetting the major risks a repetition of the recent Crisis would present. [link to report]

We have moved the first BoE hike to November 2015Danske Bank

German 10Y Bond Yield Plunges To 10bps, Negative To 8 YearsZH

Varoufakis sets up date with Obama to break Greece's debt stalemateThe Telegraph
Finance Minister will meet with President Barack Obama in Washington on Thursday as EU officials warn a release of bail-out cash remains far away

Global Daily – No QExit for MarioABN AMRO
Draghi will likely dismiss any QExit talk at today’s press conference…by insisting the central bank will continue asset purchases at least until September 2016 * Dampening QExit speculation will become more difficult later as growth builds momentum

Draghi Seen Dispelling Duration Doubts about QE ProgramBB

Introductory statement to the press conferenceECB
The ECB’s April Presser — LiveWSJ
Live: Mario Draghi’s press conferenceFT

ECB Sticks With Strategy – Marc to Market
ECB President Draghi’s Opening Remarks, Minus the Protester – WSJ
Draghi: Full QE implementation and no deposit rate cut – Danske Bank
ECB Watch – Draghi gives a balanced message – ABN AMRO
5 Takeaways From the ECB’s April Presser – WSJ
Time For Reform, Says Unflappable Mr. Draghi – WSJ
ECB meeting - Unexpected excitment in FrankfurtMerkelnomics
European bonds not scarce (yet), says Draghi – FT
ECB Market Take: All is well that ends well. Will QE? – Nordea
ECB: Unexpected action – Nordea

House prices up by 1.1% in the euro area – Eurostat
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €20.3 bn – Eurostat

Macro Digest: Q1 was no blip – the US economy is going southTF
Wake up, smell the roses and stop blaming it on the weather: the US economy's shoddy performance in the first quarter of this year was no aberration. US economic growth is heading towards zero by year's end and here's a small collection of charts to build the case.

Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.6% in March – Bill McBride
US Industrial Production Plunges – ZH
Weak factory sector in Q1 - industrial production review – Nordea
Homebuilder Confidence In April Jumps Most Since July – ZH
NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 56 in April – Bill McBride

China's Growth Supremacy Over India Is About to EndBB
Modi reforms helping propel India's economy as other emerging markets downshift, IMF Says

China growth slows to six-year low as stimulus fails to find traction – Reuters
China GDP Tumbles To Lowest In 6 Years – ZH
China's Economy Slows to 7% Growth, Meeting Government Target – BB
China: GDP growth eases further, poised to drop below 7% - Danske Bank
Chinese Economic Slowdown Boosts Shanghai Stock Exchange – Alpha Now
China shares fall after GDP data, Hong Kong market steady – Reuters
Asian markets stumble over China – Reuters
World Stocks Drop With Aussie as China Growth Slows; Yen Slides – BB
China Watch – Growth further down, but still ‘on target’ – ABN AMRO
China: the growth countdown has just begun – Nordea
China’s First-Quarter GDP in Four Charts – WSJ

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: A Gloomy Outlook for Emerging Market Growth As IMF Convenes * Two Fed Regional Banks Shift Positions on Discount Window Lending Rate * Euro Depreciation Will Restrain the U.S. and China for Years, the IMF Says * Rise in Eurozone Saving Rate Sounds Deflation Alarm * China’s First-Quarter Growth Slowest in Six Years at 7%

Daily MacroWSJ
Will China’s slowdown continue to be controlled and moderate as the government tries to rebalance the economy from investment- and export-led growth to domestic consumption? Or is the second weakest quarter (on an annual basis) since 2001 a serious worry?

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Soft Chinese data * Positive signals from the Euro area * ECB meeting in focus - but don’t expect any big news * Another set of new yield lows * EUR/NOK breaks lower

Morning Markets TF
GDP data out of China overnight confirmed what everybody already knew – the Chinese economic miracle is running out of steam. Meanwhile, over in Europe, market focus is fixed on the ECB's rate-setting meeting and though no changes are expected we'll be looking for hints of any news on the bank's QE programme.

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Dollar Bounces Back

Daily ShotTF
In China the official GDP growth figure came in as expected: 7%. But other economic growth measures all came in below consensus: retail sales, fixed investment and industrial production. This is by no means a hard landing, but we are likely to dip materially below 7% going forward.

Futures Jump Following Worst Chinese Eco Data In 6 Years

From the FloorTF
China's data shock sent tremors through forex markets with AUDUSD in particular wobbling, despite the dollar undergoing its own period of introspection after a disappointing retail sales print. A bad jobs report down under tonight could see AUDUSD in touching distance of that all-important 0.7500 barrier.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
The good, the bad and the ugly in structural reform: IMF finds no productivity gain from labour market deregulation

IMF Survey: Now Is the Time! Use Fiscal Policy to Support Sustainable GrowthIMF

Global Business Cycle Monitor: Europe the only pillar of strength currentlyDanske Bank

Kiinan hidastuminen lupaa loppuvuodelle uusia elvytystoimia |  USA:n vähittäismyynti osoittaa elpymisen merkkejä | Drakman devalvoituminen ei enää pelastaisi Kreikkaa

Kuinka hallitusohjelmaa luetaan?Antti Ronkainen

Vaihtotase alijäämäinen helmikuussa, pääomaa tuotiin nettomääräisesti – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden liikevaihto marras-tammik. laski lähes 4 prosenttia – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen liikevaihto marras-tammik. +3,4 prosenttia YoY– Tilastokeskus
Kansantalouden tuotanto laski helmikuussa 2015 – Tilastokeskus

Lars Vilks: Jos valtaapitäviä ei voi kritisoida, eivät yhteiskunnat kehitySuomen Uutiset

Sunnuntaina ei kannata nukkua!Professorin ajatuksia