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Wednesday, April 1

1st Apr - FX reserves, March PMIs

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Nouriel Roubini: Signs of Life in the EurozoneProject Syndicate
Germany needs to adopt policies – fiscal stimulus, higher spending on infrastructure and public investment, and more rapid wage growth – that would boost domestic spending and reduce the country’s external surplus. Unless, and until, Germany moves in this direction, no one should bet the farm on a more robust and sustained eurozone recovery.

'The Fourth Reich': What Some Europeans See When They Look at GermanySpiegel
Following World War II, a German return to dominance in Europe seemed an impossibility. But the euro crisis has transformed the country into a reluctant hegemon and comparisons with the Nazis have become rampant. Are they fair?

Stefan Kawalec: Europe’s Currency Manipulation Project Syndicate
The TTIP could help to restore confidence in Europe and the transatlantic community. But there is one major barrier to realizing these benefits: the euro.

Cross-border interbank contagion in the European banking sectorBank of France

What caused Italy’s stagnation?Tony Yates

Rajoy Horror Picture Show Nears Grisly Climax in SpainWolf Street

Martin Wolf: A mishap should not seal Greece’s fate – FT
Buffett Says Greek Exit From Euro ‘May Not Be a Bad Thing’ – BB
Greek Deposit Outflows Said to Slow to 3 Billion Euros – BB
Why Russia doesn't want a Grexit – TF
What happens if Greece does not pay the IMF on time? – Open Europe

ECB to Review Greek Bank Liquidity After March Deposits Dropped – BB
Three lenders face probe by ECB banking watchdog – FT
ECB quantitative easing drives confidence for now – FT
ECB Annual Report on supervisory activities 2014 – ECB
Mario Draghi Speech: Accounts and accountability – ECB
ECB Will Want to See Inflation Hardening Around 2% Mark, Draghi Says – WSJ

Labor Market Slack and Monetary PolicyDartmouth
Underemployment  and hidden unemployment currently account for the bulk of the U.S. employment gap.  Next, using state-level data, we find strong statistical evidence that each of these forms of labor market slack exerts signicant downward pressure on nominal wages

On Secular Stagnation: A Response to BernankeLawrence Summers
Larry Summers to Ben Bernanke: I Hope You’re Right, But… - WSJ

Max McKegg: Bank of Japan remains in no man’s landTF
Do Japan's weak economy and zero inflation point to more monetary easing? * BoJ will try to keep firepower in reserve and hope for an oil price rise * Falling currency and relative cost of production account for low exchange rate

Recovery in Japan business mood stalls, capex to be cut -BOJ tankanReuters

Can Abenomics Succeed? Overcoming the Legacy of the Lost DecadesiMFdirect

China Property Prices Steer Clear of CrashWSJ

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Ben Bernanke Unchained Takes on Larry Summers * Fed’s Lacker Sees ‘Strong Case’ for June Rate Increase * Congress Wants More Answers on Possible Fed Leaks * ECB Will Want to See Inflation Hardening Around 2% Mark, Draghi Says * Irish Central Banker Absolves the Euro of Blame

Daily MacroWSJ
Increasingly, it is looking like Europe is coupling with U.S. growth but Asia is decoupling.

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
EUR/USD downtrend has resumed after a short post FOMC bounce * US consumer confidence continues upswing on employment and income prospects * Eurozone labour market conditions are slowly improving

Euro rates updateNordea

Greece keeps resurfacing in headlines, yields continue down * Euro-zone inflation moves in right direction * Weak US data with potential to push yields even lower * Weak EUR, but soft US data coming up

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
European Economic Thaw Continues, but Dollar Remains Firm

Daily ShotTF
As private indebtedness in China soars the ability to repay is under pressure from sluggish economic growth. China's labour market, meanwhile, continues to weaken and its government may respond with another shot of stimulus. Elsewhere, the Greek debt mess looms large over markets, we get more evidence of a resurgent Germany and the United Kingdom is looking as robust as ever.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Greek and Eurozone officials present differing views on progress in negotiations over reform list * ECB supervisory head calls for regulatory change to stop government bonds being treated as risk free

US Open ZH
Whiplash Session Sees Furious Buying Of Futures To Defend 50-DMA As New Quarter Begins

FX UpdateTF
Yesterday’s Chicago PMI was a weak one – will this have any bearing on today’s ISM Manufacturing release? Meanwhile, today’s ADP payrolls data and Friday’s employment report are key inputs on the odds of timing the Fed’s first rate hike.

From the FloorTF
The Greek shadow still looms over markets as the April 9 payment deadline for Greece to repay a EUR450mn loan installment to the International Monetary Fund approaches.

Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
Bank risk is a many-splendoured thing – Things you didn't know you needed to know about regulation

When Should the IMF Make Exceptions? Part IPIIE
When Should the IMF Make Exceptions? Part IIPIIE

Does fiscal austerity affect public opinion?ECB
Fiscal consolidation episodes tend to have little and inconsistent impact on our measures of public opinion once we include macro controls (real GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and whether a country is in a EU/IMF program).

Forex reserves in emerging markets begin to shrinkFT
Foreign currency reserves in emerging markets fell last year for the first time in two decades, as developing economies found themselves beset by waning competitiveness, capital outflows and concerns over US monetary policy.

What Cofer won’t tell you about the euroFT
Data excludes two of the world’s largest holders of FX reserves [China, Middle-East], holding as many assets as the rest of the world’s central banks combined. It is precisely these holders that have the largest ongoing potential to sell euros.

Dollar supremacy in forex market affirmed by IMF reportFT
The dollar’s supremacy in the foreign exchange market was affirmed by official data on Tuesday, showing an increase among the currency reserves of central banks, while the euro’s share declined.

Six Mostly Overlooked Points about the Currency Reserve DataMarc to Market


Asia’s Manufacturers Feel Squeezed – WSJ
Weak demand hits China factory, services firms in March, more easing seen – Reuters
Global PMI day sees China, euro area surprise to the upside – TF
ISM Manufacturing Tumbles To 22-Month Lows, Longest Losing Streak Since Lehman – ZH
ISM Manufacturing index declined to 51.5 in March – Calculated Risk
Factories in U.S. Expand at Slowest Pace Since 2013 – BB
March Manufacturing PMIs – Edward Hugh

Japanilaisyritykset leikkaavat investointejaan | Kiina ottaa talletussuojan käyttöön toukokuussa | Kreikka-huolet jatkuvat

Näkökulma: Merkel haluaa pitää Euroopan yhdessäYLE
Merkelin vierailu oli lyhyt mutta merkittävä – ei kokoomukselle, vaikka vierailua on pidetty myös sen vaalikampanjan edistämisenä, vaan Suomelle.

Stubb ja Vartiainen: Suomi on jäämässä rajusti jälkeen muista PohjoismaistaVerkkouutiset
Kokoomuksen puheenjohtaja Alexander Stubb ja eduskuntavaaliehdokas Juhana Vartiainen kaipaavat muilta puolueilta esityksiä työllisyyttä lisäävistä rakenneuudistuksista.

Risto Pennanen: Ay-liikkeestä muutoksen vauhdittajaTalSa
Jos ammattiyhdistysliike haluaa lisää työpaikkoja, sen kannattaa ottaa itselleen uusi rooli muutoksen vaatijana.

Keskustan Juha Sipilän sopeutustoimilla julkinen velka jatkaa kasvuaanVerkkouutiset

Pääkirjoitus: Suomen ja Saksan eriseuraisuus jäi piiloonHS
Pääkirjoitus: Työllisyyslinjat ovat toiveiden varassaHS
Pääkirjoitus: Pohjoinen vaihtoi jälleen paikkaansaHS

Vieraskynä Hetemäki: Talouspolitiikassa on nähtävä metsä puiltaHS
VM:n Hetemäki: Alijäämä on paikattava ensi vaalikaudellaVerkkouutiset
Haaparanta: Valtiosihteeri puhuu aidan seipäistäAkateeminen talousblogi

Vastaääni leikkaajille – tutkijat ehdottavat täyskäännöstäTalSa
Ankeudesta aurinkoon -raportissa Jussi Ahokas ja Lauri Holappa esittävät Suomelle neljän miljardin euron elvytysohjelmaa.

Ankeudesta aurinkoon -raportti nyt luettavissaRaha ja Talous

[kalvot] Ankeudesta aurinkoon – Loppu investointilamalleRaha ja Talous
[kirja] Ankeudesta aurinkoon – Loppu investointilamalle – Raha ja Talous