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EUROPE
Nouriel
Roubini: Signs of Life in the Eurozone – Project
Syndicate
Germany needs to adopt policies – fiscal
stimulus, higher spending on infrastructure and public investment, and more
rapid wage growth – that would boost domestic spending and reduce the country’s
external surplus. Unless, and until, Germany moves in this direction, no one
should bet the farm on a more robust and sustained eurozone recovery.
Following
World War II, a German return to dominance in Europe seemed an impossibility. But the
euro crisis has transformed the country into a reluctant hegemon and
comparisons with the Nazis have become rampant. Are they fair?
The TTIP
could help to restore confidence in Europe and the transatlantic community. But there is
one major barrier to realizing these benefits: the euro.
Cross-border
interbank contagion in the European banking sector – Bank
of France
GREECE
Buffett
Says Greek Exit From Euro ‘May Not Be a Bad Thing’ – BB
Greek
Deposit Outflows Said to Slow to 3 Billion Euros – BB
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB to
Review Greek Bank Liquidity After March Deposits Dropped – BB
Three
lenders face probe by ECB banking watchdog – FT
ECB
quantitative easing drives confidence for now – FT
ECB Annual
Report on supervisory activities 2014 – ECB
Mario
Draghi Speech: Accounts and accountability – ECB
ECB Will
Want to See Inflation Hardening Around 2% Mark, Draghi Says – WSJ
UNITED STATES
Labor
Market Slack and Monetary Policy – Dartmouth
Underemployment and hidden unemployment currently account for
the bulk of the U.S. employment gap. Next, using state-level data, we find strong
statistical evidence that each of these forms of labor market slack exerts
signicant downward pressure on nominal wages
On
Secular Stagnation: A Response to Bernanke – Lawrence
Summers
Larry
Summers to Ben Bernanke: I Hope You’re Right, But… - WSJ
ASIA
Do Japan's weak economy and zero inflation
point to more monetary easing? * BoJ will try to keep firepower in reserve and
hope for an oil price rise * Falling currency and relative cost of production
account for low exchange rate
Can
Abenomics Succeed? Overcoming the Legacy of the Lost Decades – iMFdirect
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s
Take: Ben Bernanke Unchained Takes on Larry Summers * Fed’s Lacker Sees ‘Strong
Case’ for June Rate Increase * Congress Wants More Answers on Possible Fed
Leaks * ECB Will Want to See Inflation Hardening Around 2% Mark, Draghi Says * Irish
Central Banker Absolves the Euro of Blame
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Increasingly,
it is looking like Europe is coupling with U.S. growth but Asia is decoupling.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Global
Daily – ABN AMRO
EUR/USD
downtrend has resumed after a short post FOMC bounce * US consumer confidence continues
upswing on employment and income prospects * Eurozone labour market conditions
are slowly improving
Euro
rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Greece keeps resurfacing in headlines,
yields continue down * Euro-zone inflation moves in right direction * Weak US
data with potential to push yields even lower * Weak EUR, but soft US data coming up
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
European
Economic Thaw Continues, but Dollar Remains Firm
Daily
Shot – TF
As private
indebtedness in China soars the ability to repay is under
pressure from sluggish economic growth. China's labour market, meanwhile,
continues to weaken and its government may respond with another shot of
stimulus. Elsewhere, the Greek debt mess looms large over markets, we get more
evidence of a resurgent Germany and the United Kingdom is looking as robust as ever.
Daily
Press Summary – Open
Europe
Greek and
Eurozone officials present differing views on progress in negotiations over
reform list * ECB supervisory head calls for regulatory change to stop
government bonds being treated as risk free
US Open – ZH
Whiplash
Session Sees Furious Buying Of Futures To Defend 50-DMA As New Quarter Begins
FX
Update – TF
Yesterday’s
Chicago PMI was a weak one – will this have any bearing on today’s ISM
Manufacturing release? Meanwhile, today’s ADP payrolls data and Friday’s
employment report are key inputs on the odds of timing the Fed’s first rate
hike.
From the
Floor – TF
The Greek
shadow still looms over markets as the April 9 payment deadline for Greece to repay a EUR450mn loan
installment to the International Monetary Fund approaches.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Bank risk
is a many-splendoured thing – Things you didn't know you needed to know about
regulation
OTHER
When
Should the IMF Make Exceptions? Part I – PIIE
When
Should the IMF Make Exceptions? Part II – PIIE
Does
fiscal austerity affect public opinion? – ECB
Fiscal
consolidation episodes tend to have little and inconsistent impact on our
measures of public opinion once we include macro controls (real GDP growth, inflation, unemployment,
and whether a country is in a EU/IMF program).
FX RESERVES
Forex
reserves in emerging markets begin to shrink – FT
Foreign
currency reserves in emerging markets fell last year for the first time in two
decades, as developing economies found themselves beset by waning
competitiveness, capital outflows and concerns over US monetary policy.
What
Cofer won’t tell you about the euro – FT
Data
excludes two of the world’s largest holders of FX reserves [China, Middle-East], holding as many
assets as the rest of the world’s central banks combined. It is precisely these
holders that have the largest ongoing potential to sell euros.
Dollar
supremacy in forex market affirmed by IMF report – FT
The
dollar’s supremacy in the foreign exchange market was affirmed by official data
on Tuesday, showing an increase among the currency reserves of central banks,
while the euro’s share declined.
Six
Mostly Overlooked Points about the Currency Reserve Data – Marc
to Market
PURCHASING MANAGER INDICES
Asia’s Manufacturers Feel Squeezed – WSJ
ISM
Manufacturing Tumbles To 22-Month Lows, Longest Losing Streak Since Lehman – ZH
ISM
Manufacturing index declined to 51.5 in March – Calculated
Risk
March
Manufacturing PMIs – Edward Hugh
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Japanilaisyritykset leikkaavat investointejaan | Kiina ottaa
talletussuojan käyttöön toukokuussa | Kreikka-huolet jatkuvat
Näkökulma: Merkel haluaa pitää Euroopan yhdessä – YLE
Merkelin vierailu oli lyhyt mutta merkittävä – ei
kokoomukselle, vaikka vierailua on pidetty myös sen vaalikampanjan
edistämisenä, vaan Suomelle.
Stubb ja Vartiainen: Suomi on jäämässä rajusti jälkeen
muista Pohjoismaista – Verkkouutiset
Kokoomuksen puheenjohtaja Alexander Stubb ja
eduskuntavaaliehdokas Juhana Vartiainen kaipaavat muilta puolueilta esityksiä
työllisyyttä lisäävistä rakenneuudistuksista.
Risto Pennanen: Ay-liikkeestä muutoksen vauhdittaja –
TalSa
Jos ammattiyhdistysliike haluaa lisää työpaikkoja, sen
kannattaa ottaa itselleen uusi rooli muutoksen vaatijana.
Keskustan Juha Sipilän sopeutustoimilla julkinen velka
jatkaa kasvuaan – Verkkouutiset
Pääkirjoitus: Suomen ja Saksan eriseuraisuus jäi piiloon
– HS
Pääkirjoitus: Työllisyyslinjat ovat toiveiden varassa
– HS
Pääkirjoitus: Pohjoinen vaihtoi jälleen paikkaansa – HS
LEIKKAUKSET
Vieraskynä Hetemäki: Talouspolitiikassa on nähtävä metsä
puilta – HS
VM:n Hetemäki: Alijäämä on paikattava ensi vaalikaudella
– Verkkouutiset
Haaparanta: Valtiosihteeri puhuu aidan seipäistä – Akateeminen talousblogi
”ANKEUDESTA
AURINKOON”
Vastaääni leikkaajille – tutkijat ehdottavat
täyskäännöstä – TalSa
Ankeudesta aurinkoon -raportissa Jussi Ahokas ja Lauri
Holappa esittävät Suomelle neljän miljardin euron elvytysohjelmaa.
Ankeudesta aurinkoon -raportti nyt luettavissa – Raha
ja Talous
[kalvot] Ankeudesta aurinkoon – Loppu investointilamalle
– Raha
ja Talous
[kirja] Ankeudesta aurinkoon – Loppu investointilamalle –
Raha
ja Talous