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Friday, July 10

10th Jul - Greek weekend ahead


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Proof That Merkel Is Europe’s Economic BullyBB
She’s the most dominant leader in the euro zone with virtual veto power over decisions

The non-independent ECBSimon Wren-Lewis

William Hague: Why I was right to oppose euro from the startBrisbane Times

How Much Austerity Has Europe Actually Endured?BB
Quantifying the economic pain among bickering neighbors in the euro zone

The Short Answer: How Does the Eurosystem Work?WSJ

France: 2015 Article IV Consultation Press ReleaseIMF
France: Selected IssuesIMF
IMF Article IV Consultation with FranceIMF

Seven dumb things first-time MEPs doPolitico

Who Is Guy Verhofstadt?euinside

Greek government insider lifts the lid on five months of 'humiliation' and 'blackmail' – Mediapart
For Merkel and Tsipras, a deal could be dangerous – Politico
ESM support and debt sustainability – Prime Economics
France Hails Greek Aid Proposals as Germany Reserves Judgment – BB
Greek PM Tsipras seeks party backing after abrupt concessions – Reuters

Tsipras seeks key backing in AthensPolitico
Tsipras rattled his sabre until it was blunt – and for what? – The Guardian
Olivier Blanchard: Greece - Past Critiques and the Path ForwardiMFdirect
Paul Krugman: Austerity and the Greek Depression – NYT
 “Tsipras Has Just Destroyed Greece” – Yves Smith

ESM / EFSF and GreeceEFSF
FAQ: What a New Drachma Would Look Like – Marc Chandler
Wolfgang Münchau: The big achievement of Tsipras’s proposal is to sow divisionFT
Step towards deal but challenges remain – ABN AMRO
Tsipras Sells Out Referendum 'No' Vote Ahead Of Weekend Deadline – ZH

Is Greece Worse Off Than the U.S. During the Great Depression? – NYT
Creditors Assess Greece’s Bailout Plan as Optimism Rises – WSJ
Greece blinks. This is it. – WaPo
Two slides by Deutsche Bank – Barry Ritholtz
Who Will End Up Paying For A Greek Default? – Newsweek
Germans and Finns back a hard line, but support for Grexit wanes – YouGov

Janet Yellen’s speechFED

Kay Van-Petersen’s The Matrix: Risk-on Greece is fixed?TF
China is rebounding strongly, up 6.6% in Asian afternoon trading  * There was massive risk-on overnight with key moves and closes in EZ equities * Greece’s parliament is set to vote on the bailout proposal 7am CET

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hannon’s Take: Is It Time to Stop Worrying About Inflation? * Brainard: Fed Should Consider Capital Surcharge in Stress Tests * George: Fed Should Implement Modest Rate Rises Now * New Greek Proposal Appears Closer to Creditor Demands * China’s President Faces Rare Backlash

Daily MacroWSJ
It looks like Greece and China are solved. But for how long? The Greek government presented its creditors a plan they’ll find hard to refuse, given how close it is to their previous demands. Meanwhile, the Chinese government’s regulatory intervention spurred a dramatic two-day rally in its beleaguered shares.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Post Modest Gains After Late Fade

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Greek Proposals Spark Stocks Rally

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Fed Chair Yellen To Speak As Global Tensions Rise

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
We look at scenarios for the upcoming European D-day meetings on Greece * There is a high risk that a deal proves elusive, though it is a close call * We do not see a Greek exit from the euro as representing a Lehman moment * Positive scenario: two or three-year ESM deal for Greece, with compromise on debt

Euro rates updateNordea

Greece provides new bailout plan * Long yields climb, short-term rates take their cue from Yellen * EUR/USD resilient – upside bias

Morning MarketsTF
A sigh of relief swept over financial markets shortly before the clock struck midnight in Brussels last night when Greece met its deadline to submit a detailed proposal for reforms that would persuade its creditors to release bailout funds and avert a Grexit. Renewed strength in Asian equity markets also helped keep momentum upbeat

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Week Ending on a Constructive Note

Daily ShotTF
Also the weekend after the Greek referendum will be a very interesting one. A deal could still be sealed and if not the week after will become even more interesting.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Greece makes further concessions to creditors as it seeks €53.5bn three-year bailout plan * New Open Europe estimates: UK may have to contribute over £1bn to post-Grexit aid package * Die Zeit: There’s no Plan B for Europe’s future * EU states remain at odds over migrant resettlement and relocation * Majority of French, British, Italians, Dutch and Germans want to restrict open border travel within the EU

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Groundhog Day All Over Again: Futures Surge On "Greek Hope", China Stock Manipulation


From the FloorTF
Thursday saw Greece submit a proposal that was very close in its details to previous offerings from its creditors. The news boosted markets, but the Eurogroup and the Greek parliament still need to have their say. In China, Shanghai continued its government-aided rally, sending equities higher as risk-on sentiment took hold.

Kreikan uusi suunta valitaan viikonloppuna | Yellenin pitää puheen USA:n talousnäkymistä | IMF laski eilen maailmantalouden kasvuennustetta kuluvalle vuodelle

Vaihtotase ylijäämäinen toukokuussa 2015, pääomaa vietiin nettomääräisesti – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuustuotanto toukok. -5,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden uudet tilaukset toukok. -8,6% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palkkasumma maalis-toukok +2,1% YoY – Tilastokeskus