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Thursday, July 16

16th Jul - Greek bridge built, ECB increases ELA


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The birth of European macroeconomicsBruegel
Criticisms and weaknesses of the European macroeconomic system
Greece leaves eurozone with mountains to climbFT
Lessons that can be learnt from Greece’s flirtation with euro exit

EMU brutality in Greece has destroyed the trust of Europe's Left The Telegraph
'The Left let itself become the enforcer of reactionary policies and mass unemployment because of the euro.' Greece has broken the spell

Jeffry Frieden: What Europeans think about Europe in the aftermath of the crisisEconbrowser
European integration, and EMU, cannot move forward without political support from the public. At this point, such support still exists in general, but there has been such an erosion of trust in policymakers that it is hard to believe that political backing for current policies will be forthcoming for much longer unless conditions improve markedly.

Martin Enlund: How strong would a new Deutsche Mark become?Nordea
The Euro Area almost lost one member in July. Confidence in the “irreversibility” of the Euro Area has surely been dented. In this piece we take a look at the potential fair values of new currencies of Euro Area countries in case of “exits” or a break-up, with one conclusion being that everyone will want to be long the new Deutsche Mark.

ECB Weighs Emergency Funding After Tsipras Wins Greece Bailout Vote – BB
Five Questions for Mario Draghi (and Four of Them Are on Greece) – BB
Draghi Returns as Face of Euro Scarred by Brussels Brinkmanship – BB
ECB Preview: Greece remains the headline act – TF
A Short History of The ECB’s Complicated Relationship With Greece – WSJ
ECB Said to Favor Keeping Greece Emergency Bank Aid Unchanged – BB
Preview: Draghi To Address Greece, China, Reiterate QE Commitment – ZH
How The ECB Took Over Greek Banks, In One Chart – ZH
Paul de Grauwe: Why ECB should not insist on repayment of its Greek bonds – VoxEU
ECB Raises Greek ELA By €900 Million – ZH
ECB Joins IMF In Call For Greek Debt Cut, Schaeuble Shoots It Down (Again) – ZH

Monetary policy decisions – ECB
Introductory statement to the press conference – ECB
Draghi--New Meeting, Same Song, but more ELA – Marc Chandler
Eventually, the ECB will have to make a choice… - FT
Draghi Says Greece’s Place in Euro Not Doubted; Raises Emergency Funding – BB
Draghi Says Euro-Area Recovery on Track Even With Greek Turmoil – BB
ECB: Draghi, a slightly frustrated eurofighterm – Nordea
Criticism of ECB 'unwarranted' over Greek bank run: Draghi – TF
ECB Meeting18 questions about GreeceDanske Bank
When do Greek bonds qualify for QE?FT
ECB supporting GreeceABN AMRO

El-Erian: Reaction to an insightful ECB press conference – FT
5 Takeaways From the ECB’s July Press Conference – WSJ
ECB Faces the Greek Music – WSJ 

Greece’s Parliament Passes Austerity Measures Required for Bailout – WSJ
Greece’s Program: First Hurdle Cleared – CFR
Greece licks wounds after bailout vote – Reuters
Greek parliament approves bailout prior measures packageReuters
Tsipras wins Greek vote backing bailout – FT
Greek Vote Passes But ‘Tough Times Lie Ahead’: View From The Street – WSJ

Eurogroup to hold conference call on Thursday on Greek bailout – Reuters
Eurogroup agrees €7bn loan so Greece can repay; No ELA Increase On Deck – ZH
Sentence that could change Europe: Greece could be shown the door – Politico
What joint advice did the IMF and European Commission give? – Prime Economics
IMF appears to be only one looking out for Greece's long-term future – The Guardian
Why you can’t technically default on the IMF – FT

Pieter Cleppe: Why a third Greek bailout is a bad idea? – Vocal
Next Headache: Imminent Greek Government Reshuffle, New Elections – ZH
Schaeuble Shrugs Off Greek Vote Saying Euro Exit Is Best – BB
Schaeuble casts doubt on chance of Greek bailout success – Reuters
Greece May Not Get Bailout, Grexit "The Better Way", Schaeuble Says – ZH

The Great Greek Bank Drama, Act I: Schaeuble's Sin Bin – Frances Coppola
EU Said to Agree On Balance to 7 Billion-Euro Greece Loan – BB
How bad are things for the people of Greece? – BBC
Eurozone - A deal to reach a deal – Carsten Brzeski
Eurozone - Leap of faith – Carsten Brzeski
Lose-Lose: Greece Leaving Euro Seen Costlier Than Write-Off – BB
Parliamentary hurdles on the way to Greek deal – Politico

Evidence for monetary offsetSimon Wren-Lewis

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: With Greek Sales Tax, Policy Makers Again Choose Short-Term Pain * Yellen Aims to Move Rates Up This Year, but Slowly * Bank of Canada Cuts Rates * Greece’s Parliament Passes Austerity Measures *  Required for Bailout * Central Banks Likely to Jump Into China Bond Market

Daily MacroWSJ
Greece again dominated market discussion on Thursday. The country’s legislators passed deep in the night the legislation required for Greece’s creditors to relax their purse strings. For now it seems Greece is fixed, though there’s not a huge amount of conviction about how long the latest rescue might hold. But with the Greek and Chinese crises behind them, investors are now starting to look toward the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first interest rate move, increasingly likely to happen in September.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Watching the Wheels Go Round

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
ECB Next After Greece Passes Austerity Bill

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Fundamentals in Focus as Investors Brace for Liftoff

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Greece will dominate the ECB meeting - how much can the ECB help Greece at this point? * Slightly flatter US Treasury curve after Yellen’s testimony, Fed on track for a hike, dollar a bit stronger

Morning MarketsTF
Early this morning, the Greek parliament approve the bailout deal announced Monday but there remain many questions about the viability of Greece's economy. Today's European Central Bank press conference will see president Mario Draghi field queries on the health and stability of the Eurozone economy.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Rising

Daily ShotTF
As the Greek parliament gives its grudging approval to widescale reforms in the hope of another bailout deal, the IMF remains opposed to the deal and the ECB mulls over whether to keep dribbling in emergency liquidity. From China, we get a discomfiting explanation for its GDP rise and in North America, the US and Canada continue to diverge.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Schäuble reiterates temporary euro exit “better path for Greece” * EU wide bailout fund likely to be used for bridge loan to Greece despite UK objections * Germany should leave Eurozone – view from Central and Eastern Europe * Sharp increase in people from outside Europe gaining free movement rights through EU citizenship * Catalan pro-independence parties to form united front against Madrid * European Commission to review rules on capital requirements in effort to boost growth * EU launches competition investigations into US tech giant Qualcomm * Shadow cabinet minister helping to establish Brexit group

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Global Stocks Jump After Greeks Vote Themselves Into Even More Austerity


FX UpdateTF
The passage of the bailout deal in Greece helped EURUSD lower as risk appetite continued to rebound. Passage in the other EU parliaments appears assured and with the ECB assuring massive liquidity provision, EURUSD may continue lower through the next layers of support.

From the FloorTF
US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's testimony yesterday keeps the door open for a 2015 move on interest rates. Bloomberg is pricing in a 33% chance of a September move on rates and a 65% chance of a December move, which is pretty much unchanged from yesterday's odds.

CNY: Aliarvostetusta arvostetummaksi | Kreikka hyväksyi 86 miljardin euron tukipaketin ehdot parlamentissaan | EKP:n tämänpäiväinen kokous ei tuo muutoksia rahapolitiikkaan

Timo Paunonen: Poliitikkojen pitäisi nyt kertoa kansalle totuus KreikastaIS
Kreikan velkakriisiä hoitavat euromaat sotkevat Kreikan velat ja omat sisäpolitiikkansa samaan soppaan, ja siitä ei seuraa muuta kuin sotkua sotkun perään

Vasemmisto ja europrojekti – herääkö Suomen vasemmistoTyhmyri

Professori euroalueesta: ”Suomi on Saksan jaloissa räksyttävä pikkukoira”YLE
Suomi on Neuvostoliiton romahtamisen jälkeen valinnut muista Pohjoismaista poikkeavan tien Saksan kyljessä, sanoo Suomen ja Pohjoismaiden historian professori Markku Kuisma. Ratkaisu näkyy Kreikan kriisissä, jossa ankaran linjan valinnut Suomi pyrkii Kuisman mukaan miellyttämään Saksaa.

Sipilä: Kreikka-vastuiden kasvamista emme hyväksyTalSa

Järjetön veivaus: Näin Kreikka riisutaan lopullisestiTalSa
Ensin kreikkalaispankit kansallistettiin euromaiden rahoilla, ja nyt ne halutaan yksityistää euromaiden rahoilla. Tarpeettoman monimutkaisen yksityistämisohjelman tarkoituksena ei ole turvata Kreikan velanmaksukykyä, vaan irrottaa pankkien letkut valtiosta.

IMF ja euromaat ajavat omaa etuaan velkanäkemyksilläänTalSa
Kansainvälisen valuuttarahaston näkemyksillä Kreikan velkakestävyydestä voi olla kauaskantoisia seurauksia. IMF:n jääminen pois mahdollisesta Kreikan kolmannesta tukipaketista vähentäisi koko ratkaisun uskottavuutta.

Velkakriisien konkari pettyi Kreikan kohteluun: "Suomen taistelu helpotuksia vastaan surullista seurattavaa"HS
Kreikan on vietävä keskiviikkona läpi suuria lakiuudistuksia. Professori Jeffrey Sachs on pettynyt tapaan, jolla maan velkojat ovat hoitaneet kriisiä.

Sdp:n puoluesihteeri Paanaselle kelpaisi EU:n liittovaltioSK
Kannatusvaikeuksissa kamppaileva Sdp etsi Porissa uutta ilmettä ja pureskeli Antti Rinteen ehdotusta perustulosta.

Professori tyrmää poliitikot: "Faktisesti Suomen vastuut kasvavat"IL
Kansaintaloustieteen professori Vesa Kanniainen arvioi, että neljäskin tukipaketti Kreikalle voi olla mahdollinen.

Heikki Patomäki: Kreikka, Kreikka, KreikkaUS

Suuressa valiokunnassa epäilyjä Kreikan eurojäsenyyden tulevaisuudesta – YLE
Suuri valiokunta kokoontui Kreikan takia – YLE
Stubb: Kreikan lainaneuvottelut voidaan aloittaa – YLE
Soini astui esiin – ”Jokaiselle perussuomalaiselle vaikea paikka” – US