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Friday, July 10

9th Jul - Greece submits


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Euro area: Inflation implications of the lower oil priceDanske Bank

Germany’s Eurosceptics: A bad time to break upThe Economist

Why Germany’s Record Surplus Isn’t Helping the EurozoneWSJ

Clive Crook: Greece Is Merkel's Failure Too – View / BB
Mark Gilbert: No Should Mean No to Protect the Euro From GreeceView / BB
Carmen Reinhart:What Greece Can Expect – View / BB
Carmen Reinhart: Lessons for Greece: Forcible currency conversions from 1982 to 2015 – vox
Daniel Gros: Europe’s Greek Failure – Project Syndicate
Pieter Cleppe: Why Grexit is the most likely outcome – ELN
Jacob Kirkegaard: Who is Alexis Tsipras? – PIIE
Nick Rowe: It's the (absence of) trust, Simon – Worthwhile
Greek banks face closures, bailout or not – sources – Reuters
Greece Shuts Markets Through July 13 – BB
Greeks need geeks for a brave new eDrachma – TF
LSE letter on Greece crisis – VoxEU
*How can Greece leave the Euro and remain within the EU? – Open Europe
Greece's Balkan future? – TF
Why leaving the euro could be a nightmare for the Greeks – WaPo
Hold Your Nose and Offer Greece Debt Relief Conditioned on Reform – PIIE
Feasible Primary Fiscal Surpluses: Lessons from History – PIIE
Why Galbraith believes Greeks ‘deserve better’ in their crisis – WaPo
What Happens Next In Greece (In 2 Simple Charts) – ZH
Greece needs debt haircut but we can't help: Germany's Schaeuble – Reuters
Alberto Gallo: If Greece Leaves, We All Lose – WSJ

Greece submits plan to bailout authorities – FT
Greek "Compromise" Proposal Leaked, And There May Be A Problem – ZH
Athens accepts harsh austerity as bailout deal nears – The Guardian
Tsipras seeks to rush austerity package through Greek parliament – FT
Athens parliament set to vote on reforms – FT
Greece sets parliament vote on reform commitments to EU – Reuters
Legal gray areas give scope for Greek debt relief if Europe wants it – Reuters
Tsipras submits new plan to bailout monitors – FT

ECB Weidmann: Freeze on ELA Should Continue Until Deal Reached – WSJ
Draghi said to doubt Greek solution as Tsipras reforms awaited – Reuters
Draghi Says This Time It’s Really Hard to Find Greece Solution – BB
ECB ready to implement non-standard measures in case of Grexit: Hansson – Reuters

Mediocre TranquilityTim Duy
The US economy is plain vanilla. Clearly not accelerating enough to justify a faster pace of monetary policy normalization, but not slow enough for the Fed to abandon their hope of at least initiating the first rate hike this year… In Yellen’s speech Friday, we will hopefully learn more on the importance of Greece and China for US monetary policy. 

June Retail Sales Outlook Is Weak As Port Slowdown Still An IssueAlpha Now

Why Worry About China? – The Short Answer – WSJ
China’s stock market crash and what happens next – WaPo
17 days later – FT
Chinese percentages that will melt your mind, from JPM – FT
PBoC tests quantitative easing with Chinese characteristics – FT

How crises have changed the tasks and practice of central banksDeutsche Bundesbank
A conference looking how economic crises have transformed the role played by central banks from a historical perspective

World Economic Outlook Update IMF
Growth Slows in Emerging Markets, Picks Up in Advanced Economies IMF
IMF Cuts World Growth Outlook BB

How Are Commodities Doing?BB

Satellite Images Show Economies Growing and Shrinking in Real TimeBB

Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normalVoxEU
Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions

Inflation targeting and financial stabilityBIS
Providing policymakers with relevant information

Macroprudential Policy: Silver Bullet or Refighting the Last War?Milken Institute

The Bloomberg terminal: clunky, costly, addictive, ubiquitousFT

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Douglas’ Take: Bank of England’s Fiscal Worries Ease * Global Tumult Could Cause Fed Rate Pause * Lew: Wall Street Reform is Working * ECB Policy Makers Forced to Deal With Possibility of ‘Grexit’ * China Stocks Make Biggest Daily Gain in Six Years

Daily MacroWSJ
Chinese authorities finally managed to spur an equity market rally that spread into more general gains across global markets. How long the rebound lasts is another matter given that the stimulus is mostly regulatory rather than monetary. The Greek crisis also has been notched down to a temporary simmer as investors await Sunday’s European Union summit when the country’s creditors will decide whether Greece’s latest offering might be acceptable. More broadly, there was some moderately good global economic news. German exports continue to rise, Japanese export orders are picking up and Australia’s economy seems to be holding up despite the hit from China’s slowdown.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Slide as Dow Hits Five-Month Low

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Cautious Gains Ahead of Sunday’s Summit

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Why Tumult Abroad Might Help U.S. Stocks

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Global DailyABN AMRO
Greece submitted a letter on Wednesday, but today’s reform proposal will be the litmus test * FOMC needs more signs of stronger economy, but points to risks associated with a delay of rate hike * Sharp stock market correction, despite large-scale support, adds downside risks to Chinese economy

Euro rates updateNordea

Fed gives no clue to timing * Bank of England to keep status quo * EUR core yields stabilize * EUR/USD up with European stocks

Morning MarketsTF
The collapse in Chinese equities, most notably the Shanghai Composite, has been stemmed for the moment by a suite of emergency measures introduced by Beijing.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Markets Stabilize, Await New Developments

Daily ShotTF
Chinese shares continued to stumble - until the authorities imposed sales restrictions. Now the market is "stabilised".

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Eurozone awaits final proposals to see if Grexit can be avoided * German businesses appeal for UK to stay in the EU * EU interior ministers set to finalise refugee redistribution scheme * AfD co-founder Lucke announces he is leaving the party in wake of leadership defeat * EU institutions “bounced” Ireland into bailout via leaks to media, former Taoiseach says * European Parliament approves resolution on TTIP but proposes changes to ISDS * Berlusconi found guilty of bribing a senator

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

China Soars Most Since 2009 After Government Threatens Short Sellers With Arrest, Global Stocks Surge


From the FloorTF
Stocks in China were stopped from falling further, but only by government intervention. However, the impact on most markets should be positive.

Aamukatsaus Nordea
Markkinataloutta kiinalaisin erityispiirtein | Kreikan hallitus on anonut uutta tukipakettia | Englannin keskuspankki pitää rahapolitiikkansa ennallaan

Paavo Väyrynen: Virhe on korjattavaUS

Valtioiden velastaHannu Visti

Verokertymä kasvoi 1,5 prosenttia vuonna 2014 – Tilastokeskus
Bruttokansantuote supistui 0,4 prosenttia viime vuonna – Tilastokeskus