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Wednesday, July 1

1st Jul - Post-default, waiting for referendum

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Greece can still avoid a catastrophic exit from the Eurozone – voxeu
Who Are The Very Serious People (Greece Edition)? – Econospeak
Eurozone: It's (never) too late? – Carsten Brzeski
Eurozone: Referendum, chaos, Grexit? – Carsten Brzeski
Turbulent Outlook for GreecePIIE

Why Greeks Still Want to Keep the Euro, in One Chart – Wolf Richter
Referendum challenges preoccupation with ‘politics of emergency’ – Europp
The Greek Referendum Outcomes Explained in One Chart – BB
Merkel says Germany won't negotiate new deal before referendum – Reuters
Merkel Addresses German Parliament: Key Points – ZH

With Greece, Is the IMF at Risk of Repeating Its Own Mistakes?WSJ
Payment failure pitches IMF into uncharted territory – FT
Nine things to know about Greece’s IMF debt default – Conversation
ECB poised to raise heat on Greece’s beleaguered banks – FT
ECB set to keep Greece on tight funding leash – Reuters

Martin Wolf: The difficult choices facing the GreeksFT
Explainer: How Greek contagion is being containedFT
Tsipras backs down on Greece bailout demands – FT
Leaked: Tsipras letter concedes on many major points – FT
Greece seeks Eurogroup, ECB support after IMF default – Reuters

Markets rally on report Greece accepts creditor terms – Reuters
Greece Ready to Accept Creditors’ Proposals – BB
Sony Kapoor: Why Greece Never Got A Fair Chance – Social Europe
Leonid Bershidsky: Greeks, Welcome to the Soviet Union of 1991 – View / BB
S&P Says Greek Eurozone Exit Could Weaken Upturn in EuropeWSJ

IMF: austerity measures would still leave Greece with unsustainable debtThe Guardian
Three Scenarios for Greece and the Eurozone – WSJ
Why we recommend a NO in the referendumVaroufakis
Greece: from default to Grexit?Bruegel
Anders Aslund: Myths of Austerity – and Paul Krugman – Berlin Policy Journal

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fallout Contained So Far Following Greek Default * Fischer: Rates to Increase Gradually * Fed’s Bullard Shrugs Off Greek Events, Points to Chance of Sept Rate Increase * Fresh Greek Bailout Proposals Fall Short of Creditors’ Demands * Bank of England Warns Greece Threatens Financial Stability

Daily MacroWSJ
Markets first soared on reports the Greek government has broadly capitulated to its creditors, a day after the country fell into arrears on its International Monetary Fund loans.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Finish Weak First Half With Whimper

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Wary Gains Expected After Greece’s Well-Flagged IMF Default

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Stocks Expected to Advance in the Second Half

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Euro-area inflation underscores why ECB’s QE will continue for a long time * No side is in the lead ahead of Greece’s referendum on Sunday * Greece became the first advanced country ever to default on an IMF loan

Morning MarketsTF
After Greece crashed out of its IMF bailout last night and cut itself off from the oxygen of Eurozone emergency funds, Europe's currency bloc is in uncharted territory as efforts continue to prevent a full-blown Grexit.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Deadlines Come and Go, Markets Endure

Daily ShotTF
Resilience seems the name of the game ahead of Sunday's EU referendum in Greece with most local markets (except Greece, of course) steady or higher. DAX futures have stabilised, peripheral bonds are bid and periphery CDS spreads (again, outside Greece) remain low. Elsewhere, we've got good news from China and in the commodities sphere, grains are flying high.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Tsipras prepared to accept creditors’ offer with minor changes, leaked letter shows * Booth: Greek crisis illustrates need for EU to redefine ‘ever closer union’ * Denmark to impose border checks on German border as French court rules controls on Italian border compatible with Schengen agreement * Spain’s anti austerity party vows to succeed where Syriza has failed

Brussels PlaybookPolitico


From the FloorTF
What does Greece's effective default mean now? And will a strong NFP tomorrow put a September rate hike firmly back on the agenda?

EKP:n työt eivät lopu kesken | Kreikan pääministeri Tsipras on anonut kolmatta tukipakettia velkojiltaan | Iso-Britannian ensimmäisen neljänneksen BKT korjattiin ylöspäin

Miten tähän on tultu? Kun Kreikka oli vielä yksi murheenlapsi muiden joukossaTE