Google Analytics

Tuesday, July 28

28th Jul - Markets find bottom ahead of Fed


Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Paul Krugman: Second-best MacroeconomicsNYT
All the natural answers to our problems have been ruled out politically… As a result, we’re stuck with highly problematic second-best policies like quantitative easing and internal devaluation.

Hans-Werner Sinn: Don’t Lend to Your Euro FriendsProject Syndicate
After months of brinkmanship, and only a week after Greek voters rejected the conditions for a rescue package, the eurozone's political leaders agreed to start negotiations on a much larger package, worth almost half of Greece’s GDP. Unfortunately, the deal reveals Europe’s apparent determination to reenact the same tragedy in the future.

The Euro is Saved! Now What?Alpha Now
Euro Headed To Parity? * Europe Needs More Liquid Diet * The EUR Is Already Weak… But It May Not Be Saved

ECB’s Cœuré on the Eurozone: Federation or StagnationCraig Willy

Why is inflation so low in the euro area?Bank of Italy
Both aggregate demand and oil supply shocks have driven inflation down everywhere, albeit with varying intensity

Press release: euro area reform needs – German Council of Economic Experts
Executive Summary – German Council of Economic Experts
German Economic Council Backs Exit For "Uncoooperative" EZ Members – ZH
German 'wisemen' say euro zone states should be able to go bankrupt – Reuters
German economists oppose eurozone integration – Politico

Thank You Sir, May I Have Another? – Marc Chandler
Yanis Varoufakis: The Lethal Deferral of Greek Debt Restructuring – Project Syndicate
Denials fly in war of nerves over Greek debt talks – Reuters

UK Q2 Prelimininary GDP +0.7% - ONS
Services, Finance and Oil Drive U.K. Growth to 0.7% - BB
UK: Growth rebounded in Q2 - focus now on next MPC meeting – Danske Bank
GDP review: BoE rate hike in 2015 still on cards – Nordea

5 Things to Watch at This Week’s Fed MeetingWSJ

The Numbers: Janet Yellen’s First 18 Months Running the FedWSJ

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls Back Sharply in July – WSJ
US Economic & Consumer Confidence Plunges To 10-Month Lows – ZH

U.S. home price growth stalls in May: S&P/Case-Shiller – Reuters
Home-Price Growth Remained Solid in May – WSJ
National House Price Index increased 4.4% year-over-year in May – Bill McBride
Are Home Prices Again Breaking Records? Not Really – WSJ
Case Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most In 10 Months – ZH
One Economic Datapoint, Two Vastly Different Interpretations – ZH

Countries Should Take Action to Reduce External ImbalancesIMF
More progress still needed on reducing global imbalances * Lower oil prices, divergent monetary policies are shaping the current picture * Both surplus and deficit economies need to take steps to reduce excess imbalances

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Why Budget Battles Aren’t Likely to Derail Fed Rate Plans * 5 Things to Watch at This Week’s Fed Policy Meeting * Investors Think China Tumult Will Cause Fed to Delay Liftoff * China’s Yuan Pushes Deeper Into Global Financial System * U.K. Economy Steps Up a Gear

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Extend Losses on China Selloff

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Stocks Steady, China Still in Focus

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
China a Focal Point as Fed Begins Policy Meeting

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

China stocks record largest one-day drop in eight years * Growth fears weighing on core yields * EUR gained on global de-risking

Morning MarketsTF
The headline act in today's economic news is the UK, where GDP is expected to be up 0.7% in the second quarter of 2015, indicating healthy year-on-year growth and raising the probability of a rate hike later this year.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar-Bloc Corrects Higher, GDP Underpins GBP

Daily ShotTF
After Chinese stocks took a very bad tumble on Monday (and a milder one Tuesday), conspiracy theorists are blaming 'foreigners' for the country's ills. A more pragmatic (though still hardly credible) explanation would be a sharp rise in the price of pork.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
French Economy Minister says EU needs “fair set of rules” for non-euro countries * Lord Hill: People “value” the UK as an EU member and are willing to listen to reforms but these need to be spelt out * Varoufakis defends his plans for an alternate Greek payment system amid reports of potential judicial inquiry * Negotiations restart as creditors demand further reforms in Greece before bailout agreed * IMF warns of weak Eurozone outlook and calls for further integration * ECB’s Cœuré joins call for Eurozone Finance Ministry * EU state aid rules force Scottish government to turn to private sector to deliver infrastructure funding * New poll: Pro-independence alliance would fail to win majority in Catalan elections * French farmers block German lorries at the border over ‘low cost’ competition

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Drachma queen — China crash — IMF FAQ — Orbán cowboy

Futures Soar On Hope Central Planners Are Back In Control, China Rollercoaster Ends In The Red


FX UpdateTF
The USD recovered slightly in places, while AUD and NZD recovered even more robustly. After the recent distraction of the risk-off tone, the potential for a bigger surprise is now building around tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.

From the FloorTF
Today's Asian session saw the Shanghai Composite continue to saw at the wheel, with Saxo Bank fixed income head Simon Fasdal stating that more intervention from Beijing is likely on the cards.

Raaka-ainevaluuttojen nokka kohti kaakkoa | Kiinan Shanghai-osakkeet laskivat eilen 8,5 prosenttia | Saksan talouselämän luottamus nousi heinäkuussa

Aivovoimistelua euron hajottamisesta Roger Wessman

Pasi Sorjonen: Asuntojen hinnat: Ensivaikutelma pettääNordea
Voimmeko jo päätellä, että asuntojen hintojen lasku on kääntynyt lieväksi nousuksi? Tilastokeskus kertoi tänään, että vanhojen osakeasuntojen hinnat kohosivat Suomessa vuoden 2015 toisella neljänneksellä verrattuna edelliseen neljännekseen. Koko maan tasolla nousua kertyi 0.8 prosenttia, pääkaupunkiseudulla 0.3 prosenttia ja muualla Suomessa 1.2 prosenttia.