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Wednesday, July 15

15th Jul - Greek parliament votes


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5 Things to Watch at the ECB’s July Press ConferenceWSJ

Has the EU pushed integration too far and too fast?John Kay
The empires of history have generally collapsed from overstretch, which led to restive populations on the peripheries, and then to doubts about the wisdom of the project in the home country itself. These symptoms are recognisable in Europe today.

UK Higher wage growth and MPC comments indicate hike is ‘moving closer’Danske Bank

Spain Is Not Greece but Many Little GreecesEconMatters

Germany: 2015 Article IV Press ReleaseIMF
Germany: 2015 Article IV ConsultationIMF
Germany Article IV: Selected IssuesIMF
Germany Charts a Steady CourseIMF

Greece needs debt relief far beyond EU plans - Secret IMF report – Reuters
Greece: An Update of IMF Staff’s Preliminary Public Debt Sustainability Analysis – IMF
IMF Demands Greek Debt Relief "Far Beyond What Europe Has Been Willing To Consider" – ZH
Euro leaders knew of latest IMF debt analysis for Greece: EU official – Reuters
IMF calls for Greece debt relief ahead of bailout voteReuters
IMF Says Greece Needs Even Deeper Debt Relief From EuropeBB
IMF stuns Europe with call for massive Greek debt relief – The Telegraph
IMF criticises Greece bailout deal with EU – FT
Latest IMF debt relief push baffles eurozone creditors – FT
Peter Doyle: IMF DSA of Greece (and others)FT

Athens to vote as IMF warns Greece needs extra debt relief above bailout – The Guardian
IMF Is Telling Europe the Euro Doesn’t Work – NYT
Greece: And the can keeps on rolling… - VoxEU
EU Populists Vindicated by Tsipras’s Struggle Take Aim at Euro – BB
Caught between a Eurosceptic rock and a hard place – Tony Yates
Some in German government preferred temporary Grexit: Schaeuble – Reuters
ECB’s Mersch Doesn’t Think Germany Prevailed in Greek Bailout DealWSJ
Germany and Greece: In Victory, Magnanimity? – PIIE
Justin Fox: Leaving Euro Is Better Than Eternal Greek Crisis – View/BB
Europe’s dirty little secret is Greece will never pay back its debt – WaPo
The Shocking 2008 AIG Report On "Empire Europe" And The Death Of GreeceZH

Greek PM: bailout deal must be implemented, even if 'one-way street' – Reuters
Tsipras Kicks Off Bailout Pitch with Math Already in Question – BB
Greek Assets to Be Sold in Bailout ‘Don’t Exist,’ Minister Says – BB
Greece to get €7 billion EU bridge loan – Politico
UK Furious At Proposed €7 Billion Greek Ponzi-Perpetuating Bridge Loan – ZH
UK attacks EU emergency aid plan for Greece – FT
Will the EU regret dragging the UK into Greek bailout? – Open Europe

FX Forecast Update: Calm after the stormDanske Bank

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: U.S. Consumers are a Wildcard in Yellen’s Midyear Outlook * Five Things to Watch in Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony * More Regional Fed Banks Asked to Raise Discount Rate in June * BOJ Lowers Price Forecasts, Stands Pat on Policy * Behind China’s Dwindling Forex Reserves, A Plan to Boost the Yuan

Daily MacroWSJ
After some of the initial high hopes about Greece’s latest rescue deal with its creditors and Beijing’s support of the Chinese equity market, doubts have begun to creep back in. Chinese shares fell back again on Wednesday despite (or perhaps because of) generally positive second-quarter growth data, while the International Monetary Fund’s warnings about Greece’s prospects hangs over the economy. Elsewhere, Japan’s massive fiscal and monetary stimulus efforts are proving yet again to be less effective than hoped. And the British economy might be starting to wobble slightly, with an uptick in unemployment.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Extend Gains as Earnings Pick Up

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Greek Parliamentary Vote Prompts Caution

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Fed Chair Yellen Headlines Busy Day for Markets

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Yellen’s testimony could give details on timing * Deadline for Greece reform laws * Oil deal could spell trouble for both NOK bulls and Norges Bank

Morning MarketsTF
Markets are braced for a multi-focus day which will see a slew of data releases and events each with market-moving potential all jostling for attention. The FT reports on an unsettling development in the Greek debt saga, FX markets prepare for Yellen's testimony, and Chinese data surprises but its equity markets slump.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
There are six main events for global investors.  Three have already taken place:   The BOJ meeting, Chinese data and the UK labor report.  Three highlights remain: Greek parliament vote, Bank of Canada meeting, and Yellen's semi-annual testimony.

Daily ShotTF
In China, the latest economic reports show stabilisation, with retail sales, industrial production, fixed investments, and GDP all better than consensus.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Schäuble: Many people in the German government think Grexit would be a better solution * European Commission proposes using EU-wide bailout fund to provide bridge loan to Greece despite UK opposition * IMF warns Greek debt is not sustainable and may not take part in third bailout * Ruparel: Greek deal defined by German Eurozone vision - not France's

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Chinese Stock Plunge Resumes With 1200 Stocks Halted Limit Down; Yellen, Greek Elections On Deck


FX UpdateTF
The Greek parliament is expected to vote in favour of the bailout deal later today, putting at least a temporary end to the market’s fixation on Greece and allowing renewed focus on the US Fed outlook.

From the FloorTF
Janet Yellen speaks today but we can probably expect a September hike to be off the table, even if she does not say so.

Iran-sopimus lyö kapuloita öljyntuottajien rattaisiin | Kiina elvytti kasvutavoitteeseen asti | Kreikan on tänään hyväksyttävä lakiesitykset velkaneuvottelujen aloittamiseksi

Vastuu Kreikasta siirtyy ulkopuolisille Peter Nyberg