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Friday, July 24

24th Jul - China's PMI not good


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How to fix the EuroSteve Waldman

What doesn’t kill the EU makes it stronger: 2015 editionZurich Capital

Italy Leans While Greece TumblesBB
It’s deep in debt but has manufacturing and prudent banks

Beppe Grillo calls for nationalisation of Italian banks and exit from euroThe Guardian
Grillo calls for Italy to throw off euro ‘straitjacket’FT

The German Trade Surplus Is Not A Problem For The EurozoneForbes

Peggers and floaters – the story of five Nordic countriesLars Christensen

Paul Krugman: The Essential ObstfeldNYT

Milton Friedman expresses his sympathy for Syriza supporters and his dislike of the “gnomes in BrusselsLars Christensen

Some Simple UK BoE MPC ArithmeticAlpha Now

Lagarde Push for Greece Debt Relief Challenges Merkel – BB
Dan Davies: 2010 and all that — Relitigating the Greek bailout 2 – Medium


Goldman FOMC PreviewBill McBride

New Home Sales Plunge Most Since 2014 – ZH
New home sales at seven-month low; manufacturing stabilizes – Reuters
Sales of U.S. New Homes Unexpectedly Fall to Seven-Month Low – BB
US new home sales drop in June: reaction – FT

Fed "Accidentally" Released Dovish Confidential Market-Moving Forecasts – ZH
Fed Economic Forecasts Released Early – WSJ

Fed: confidential GDP forecasts 'inadvertently' posted – FT

Stephen King: Interest rates: central bankers’ dilemma on both sides of the AtlanticFT
Given risk, raising interest rates might simply be too dangerous.

FX forecast update: tumbling down commodity currenciesNordea
Unexpected weakness in China and another leg down in commodity prices has hurt the commodity FX. We adjust lower our forecasts, expecting headwinds short term, but hoping for a better end of the yea

Metals hit multi-year lows on global growth concerns, dollar risesReuters

Research Bulletin 22ECB
Financial instability in macroeconomics: a set of new structural models * The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT announcements * The impact of financial transaction taxes: new evidence * ECB Workshop on non-standard monetary policy measures * Conference on the optimal size of the financial sector * Recent journal publications by ECB staff

International banking statistics at end-March 2015BIS
Global cross-border claims of BIS reporting banks continued to expand in Q1 by $755 billion…Euro-denominated cross-border claims and lending to the euro area surged, Greece was a notable exception.

Japan PMI rises as domestic orders increase – Reuters
China: lower PMI starts Q3 with uncertainty – Nordea
Weak China PMI throws cold water on signs of recovery – Danske Bank
China activity falls to 15-mth low – Reuters
German Manufacturing Growth Slowed in July as Exports Decline – BB
EZ PMI slightly down but still close to four-year high – Nordea
Europe’s Economy Holds Up as Greek Crisis Dents Confidence – BB
EZ business growth wanes at start of second half: PMI – Reuters
EZ PMI Suggest Modest Recovery Continued – WSJ

US Manufacturing PMI Hovers Near 19 Month Lows – ZH
Markit U.S. Factory Gauge Improves From Weakest Level Since 2013 – BB

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hannon’s Take: Economists No Longer So Negative on Negative Rates * Bundesbank’s Weidmann Voices Concern Over Bailout Fund * BOE’s McCafferty: Don’t Wait Too Long * Mexico Meets its Elusive Inflation Target * South Africa Raises Interest Rates

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Hit the Roof, Again

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Weaker Data Keeps Markets Subdued

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Don’t Expect Much From Revenues This Season

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

AUD tumbles on China manufacturing miss * Euro-area PMIs seen slightly higher * Rates retreat on “risk off”

Morning MarketsTF
WTI's held steady for the last three months but Wednesday's inventory surprise seems to have tipped it towards the abyss. With the foothills of $50/barrel now disappearing over the horizon, how low can it go?

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Contrasting Data Lifts Greenback

Daily ShotTF
China's manufacturing PMI has come in well short of expectations, adding to widespread fear of a slowdown and hitting industrial metals and the AUD hard.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Obama: UK’s EU membership important to maintaining strength of transatlantic union * Cameron: UK exporters need to look to new markets outside Europe * Third bailout negotiations set to begin in Athens amid rumours of SYRIZA split * Senior CDU MP steps down as Bundestag’s Home Affairs committee chair in protest over third Greek bailout * Beppe Grillo: Italy needs Plan B to leave the euro

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Commodity Clobbering Continues As Amazon Lifts Futures


FX UpdateTF
The AUDUSD pushed to new six-year lows overnight on a weak China manufacturing PMI, while USD remains firm, though the euro was firm as well, and EURGBP is risking a major reversal of the downtrend if it closes higher today.

From the FloorTF
Early European trading this morning is all about handling the aftermath of a bunch of new records across several asset classes that were logged during the Asian session. Unfortunately, the records are mostly downside.

Jälleen uusi Kiina-pettymys | Ruotsin työttömyysaste odotettua alhaisempi | Euroalueen ostopäällikköindeksit julkaistaan tänään

Tehdäänkö Suomessa todellakin liian vähän töitä? Nordea

Sami Metelinen: Tämä olisi Kreikan euroeron hyvä skenaario – "huonoa emme uskaltaneet kuvitella" Verkkouutiset

Vähittäiskaupan pikaennakko: kesäk +0,3% YoY– Tilastokeskus
Teollisuuden tuottajahinnat kesäk. -1,2% YoY – Tilastokeskus
Palvelujen tuottajahinnat Q2 ennallaan YoY – Tilastokeskus