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Tuesday, July 21

21st Jul - Risk-off in Eq, FX and a new IMF chief-eco


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A Euro Visionary at the IMFView/BB
Maurice Obstfeld, who's just been appointed chief economist for the IMF, has followed the common European currency project for decades -- since it was a relatively loose association -- and warned early on about the problems the euro faces today. Perhaps if European politicians listen to him now, they will argue less about how to make the currency union work.

This is what economists don’t understand about the euro crisis – or the U.S. dollarWaPo
Criticizing the euro because it doesn’t meet the ideal economic conditions for a single currency is missing the point. The same is true of every project to create a common political system.

Why it's time for Germany to leave the eurozoneThe Telegraph
Influential figures including Ben Bernanke have called on Germany to start pulling its weight to end the eurozone's dysfunction. The only alternative is a German exit from the euro

Ashoka Mody: Germany, Not Greece, Should Exit the EuroView / BB

Tim Worstall: European Elites Don't Understand The Damage That Is The EuroForbes

Tim Worstall: Euro Delenda EstForbes

Greece's Euro Exit Back on the Agenda Next Year, Economists Say – BB
Slovak PM Fico: we will ask for Greek exit if conditions not met – Reuters
What's Next for Greece? – Marc Chandler
Could there be political contagion from Greece? – Open Europe
Greece Needs A €130 Billion Debt Haircut: Citi – ZH
Tsipras Asked Putin For $10 Billion To "Print Drachmas", Media Reports – ZH

The Dollar Is Getting HammeredZH

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: ECB Gets Cash, and Lessons, from Defunct Bond Plan * Obama to Nominate Dominguez to Fed Board * Fed Lifts Capital Requirements for Banks * Investors Flee Commodities * As Markets Swing, Beijing Steadies Yuan

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Little Moved; Gold Much Moved

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Markets Drift as Investors Take Gains

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Groundhog Day for U.S. Stocks

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

The next Greek deadlines and stumbling blocks * Fed hints at lift-off in September * FX volatility drops off

Morning MarketsTF
After yesterday's 'flash crash' took gold down 4.2%, or about $50, in a matter of seconds late Sunday night to its lowest level since March, it's a quieter day for analysts.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
The light news stream has spurred some position squaring by short-term momentum traders.

Daily ShotTF
The selloff in commodities just keeps on gathering pace with sugar and oil both barely treading water after gold's spectacular lunge towards the abyss on Monday.

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
EU member states fall short of refugee relocation target * New report finds Central and Eastern European EU migrants more likely to be employed but also more likely to be claiming benefits than UK natives * Greece gains breathing space as banks reopen * Johnson: Single Market is key aspect of Britain’s engagement with the EU * EU considers imposing sanctions on opponents of peace process in Libya * ECJ asked to rule on nature of Uber

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
Missed migration target — Lessons from Greece crisis — Troika trick

Commodity Rout Halted On Dollar Weakness, Equities Unchanged


FX UpdateTF
The USD remains near the top of the heap of major currencies at the moment, though trading is quiet and US event risks are entirely absent today. After uninspiring Reserve Bank of Australia minutes, AUD is in the crosshairs tonight with the latest CPI release and a speech by the central bank's governor, Glenn Stevens.

From the FloorTF
With July well underway and August just over the horizon, markets worldwide are meandering through their traditional summertime lull, characterised by low liquidity, scant activity and a marked absence of triggers which could be used as directional cues. The sleepy mood today is intensified by an almost bare economic indicator calendar with only tonight's API weekly estimate of US crude oil stocks at 20:30 GMT worth keeping an eye out for.

Fed pitää kehittyvien talouksien valuutat matalapaineessa | Suomen työttömyysaste julkaistaan tänään | Kreikka maksoi odotetusti takaisin velkansa EKP:lle ja IMF:lle