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Friday, July 17

17th Jul - German parliament says 'Ja'


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Philip Stephens: Delors had the answer to the Greek questionFT
The 1989 blueprint for the euro emphasised responsibility and solidarity would sit side by side

Greece and the missing banking unionVoxEU
The Greek Crisis is a crisis rather than a problem due to the vulnerability of Greek banks. While the banks have deep problems, this column argues that these would have been mitigated if a fully operational banking union were in place. A full banking union requires joint banking supervision, joint bank resolution, and joint deposit insurance. The EZ only has the first so far. Completing the banking union must be part of any long-term solution.

The euro is a disaster even for the countries that do everything rightWaPo
The euro straitjacket, in other words, turns ordinary problems into extraordinary ones (Finland) and extraordinary problems into historic ones (Greece). And that can happen whether or not you follow the rules.

Ben Bernanke: Greece and Europe: Is Europe holding up its end of the bargain? – Brookings
Simply recognizing officially that creditor as well as debtor countries have an obligation to adjust over time (through fiscal and structural measures, for example) would be an important step in the right direction.

Results of the Q3 2015 ECB Survey of Professional ForecastersECB
Survey Shows Eurozone Inflation Below Target for Some Time to ComeWSJ

Decisions taken by the Governing Council in JulyECB

Draghi Said to Surprise ECB Governors With Bid to Ease Greek AidBB

Stefano Micossi: The changing tasks of the ECBVoxEU
The ECB’s monetary policy has evolved rapidly over the past decade – from the adoption of the euro to the recent implementation of quantitative easing. This column discusses the effectiveness of the ECB’s policies. The single currency induced pro-cyclicality in the Eurozone periphery. The failure to adequately respond to the Lehman failure placed the burden to stabilise financial markets on the Eurozone. And finally, the persistent deflation and depression convinced the ECB to adopt an expansionary monetary stance.

Grexit Still on the Table Even With EU’s Latest Band-Aid – BB
Euro countries quietly urge Grexit – Politico
More than one way to skin Greece loanFT
Odds That The Greek Debt Deal Will Work Are 50/50 At Best – Forbes
Europe moves to restore funding to Greece after bailout vote – Reuters
Fear of the Unknown Binds a Greek Deal With Few BelieversWSJ
The New Greek Deal Is Not Viable Without Debt Relief – Forbes

Greece: Donald Tusk warns of extremist political contagion – FT
Donald Tusk interview: the annotated transcript – FT
Eurogroup Head Dijsselbloem on the Race to Find a Plan for Greece – WSJ
Lagarde Insists Greek Debt Needs Easing If Aid Deal Is to Work – BB
Draghi Dreams of Better Union as Europe Bickers Over Greece – BB
Greece is being taxed to death – Politico
Merkel says ‘timeout’ not an option – Politico

Germany Approves Bailout By Wide Margin Despite Surge In "Nein" Votes – ZH
Five Lessons on Greece – Bruegel
German lawmakers back Greek bailout talks despite rebellion – Reuters
Euro zone bailout fund opens third bailout talks with GreeceReuters
Karl Whelan: Where Rules Mean What Wolfgang Says They Mean – Medium
Who will pay for Greece’s new €86bn bailout? – FT
Tails you lose, heads you lose – TF

The Case For SeptemberTim Duy
Ultimately, as the crisis fades further into the rearview mirror, the Fed see the policy risks shifting. Many, including Yellen, will shift back toward the central banker's natural inclination to fight inflation, despite the lack of inflation for the past two decades. And that natural inclination keeps the September option alive.

Great Graphic: Fed Expectations--Surveys and the MarketMarc Chandler

U.S. inflation, housing data bolster rate hike argumentReuters

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: What We Learned From Yellen: Fed is Dug In on Raising Rates in 2015 * Yellen Open to Raising SIFI Threshold * ECB Raises Emergency Lending to Greek Banks * BOE’s Carney: U.K. Rate Decision Could Become Clearer in at Turn of Year * WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Fed Will Move in September

Daily MacroWSJ
With the Greek crisis and China’s market collapse solved and a deal over Iranian nuclear weapons signed and sealed, the world suddenly seems a friendlier place for investors. Equity prices have been ticking higher while sovereign debt is stable. Attention now has shifted to U.S. corporate earnings and the prospects the Federal Reserve will start to tighten policy in September.

Morning MoneyBeat AsiaWSJ
U.S. Stocks Rise as Threats Recede

Morning MoneyBeat EuropeWSJ
Sailing Past Greece for Now

Morning MoneyBeat USWSJ
Why Sustainable New Highs Could Be Hard to Come By

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Greece bridge financing imminent * US to welcome positive inflation * ECB and Fed both downplaying economic downside risks

Morning MarketsTF
Angela Merkel will get the ratification for the Greek bailout that she wants today from the German Bundestag, but a stormy debate will no doubt demonstrate the cracks that exist within her Christian Democratic Union Party and between her and finance minister Wolfgang Schauble.

Daily FX CommentMarc Chandler
Dollar Consolidates Gains, Sterling Continues to Shine

Daily ShotTF
Why are we seeing the euro, particularly euro-sterling, decline sharply after the Greek situation has supposedly stabilised?

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
Greek Interior Minister says snap elections after the summer are “very likely” * Osborne hails deal to ring-fence non-Eurozone taxpayers’ from Greek bailout * European Parliament mulls boosting role of its President * Hoey: Post Brexit UK could rip up EU state aid rules and re-nationalise railways

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Futures Flat Ahead Of Greek Bridge Loan Approval


FX UpdateTF
The greenback has posted its strongest week in a couple of months so far, and today is about whether the currency can close the week on a strong note. Today’s US CPI data should be overlooked if it is weak.

From the FloorTF
As Greece and the Eurozone clear a clutch more hurdles en route towards a bailout and salvation, Saxo Bank's team of market experts tell us that markets are in buoyant mode this morning with both the US dollar and sterling clocking strong gains on the euro, bonds steady to higher and European equities stronger amid bluechip earnings' beats.

EKP:n kokous: Kreikka, Kreikka, Kreikka | Kreikka joutuu todennäköisesti järjestämään uudet vaalit | USA:n inflaatio kääntyy positiiviseksi kesäkuussa

Salattu toimintalinja: Suomi halusi Kreikan väliaikaisesti pois eurostaVerkkouutiset

Henri Myllyniemi: Kreikan kolmas paketti nakertaisi hallitustaUS

Tehtiinkö euroalueella vallankaappaus?Peter Nyberg