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Wednesday, November 16

16th Nov - Calm

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Only 13 percent of recent refugees in Germany have found work: survey – Reuters
Germany Threatens to Abandon Basel Talks If Demands Not Met – BB

Fed Rate-Hike Odds Approach 100% in Anticipation of Trumponomics – BB
Donald Trump Flipped the Investment Backdrop on Its Head – BB
Fiscal Spending May Be in Vogue, But It Still Has a Dark Side – BB
5 Things to Watch in Janet Yellen’s Testimony Thursday – WSJ

Editorial: Trump’s Trade Disagreements – View / BB
Editorial: Trump’s Mexico Dilemma, and Vice Versa – View / BB

Weekly Bond UpdateTF
Trump election ignites surprise bond yield surge

Ray Dalio's Bond Shake-Up ScenarioBB

Emerging Market FXNordea
All year-to-date gains in EM FX have been erased after the US election. A stronger USD, higher bond yields and lower oil prices have all taken its toll on EM FX. We expect slightly better times are ahead for the MXN, the CNY and the RUB.

FX Forecast UpdateDanske Bank
Trump rally set to extend near term, then reverse

If TPP is Dead...Marc Chandler

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Equities up, bond yields down, strong USD * Today production data from the US and Prospera report * Calmer markets and lower rates * EUR/USD at 1.074

Morning MarketsTF
Renewed hopes that Opec will be able to agree on an output ceiling when the cartel's members meet at the end of the month has sparked energy stocks higher. Meanwhile Japanese investors have welcomed the lower yen and flocked into equities giving the benchmark Nikkei 225 a hefty lift.

Euro wrap-upDaiwa

Daily Market CommentMarc Chandler
The Greenback Remains Resilient

Daily Market CommentMacro Man
Dollar holler

Daily Press SummaryOpen Europe
UK Government has prepared a bill to begin the Brexit process * Boris Johnson: UK “will probably have to come out of the customs union” * Merkel stays firm on free movement but open to discussing EU welfare rules * Carney: It would be “precipitous” for banks to move out of UK now * Local Government calls for greater devolution of powers post-Brexit * Macron to announce French presidential bid today * New poll shows outsider Fillon could win centre-right French presidential nomination * Merkel to run for fourth term as Chancellor, says senior CDU politician * Italy blocks revision of multi-annual EU budget

Brussels PlaybookPolitico
8 governments under EU budget hammer — Another Oettigate
Global Bonds Plunge As "Trumpflation" Rally Returns, Dollar Jumps


FX UpdateTF
The two major currencies headed in opposite directions are the Japanese yen which continues to tumble as Japan’s bond market shows signs of strain. Elsewhere sterling is pulling back higher despite yesterday’s weak CPI suggesting that today’s earnings and employment data may be ignored as well.

Dollarin vahvistumisessa hengähdystauko * Tänään julkaistaan USA:n teollisuustuotannon luvut lokakuulta * Öljyn tynnyrihinta nousi takaisin 45 dollariin * Euroalueen BKT kasvoi odotusten mukaisesti

Trumpin jälkeen Grillo ja Le Pen? Roger Wessman

Jan Hurri: Vaarallisin jytky 4. joulukuuta?TalSa