28th Nov - First signs of Trump-trade dying

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EUROPE

Hans-Werner Sinn: Europe’s Secret Bailout – Project Syndicate

While the world worries about Donald Trump, Brexit, and refugees, the European Central Bank continues to work below the public radar on its debt-restructuring plan – also known as quantitative easing – to ease the burden on the over-indebted eurozone countries. It's a high-risk operation, especially for Germany and the Netherlands.,

Wolfgang Münchau: The elite’s Marie Antoinette moment – FT

Right response is to focus on the financial sector and inequality

Monetary dialogue European parliament committees – EU

Why we need a positive fiscal stance for the Eurozone and what it means – vox

Fiscal space and low interest rates: A Eurozone perspective – vox

Greece needs to show commitment to rescue program: ECB's Coeure – Reuters

Editorial: France Needs Someone to Stop Le Pen – View / BB

Where may the Populist-Nationalist Forces Stall? – Marc Chandler

  UNITED KINGDOM

Britain doesn’t need to trigger article 50, it can just leave EU – BI

The New Brexit Headache - After Article 50 Comes Article 127 – Forbes

BoE's Carney wants lengthy Brexit transition for UK firms – Reuters

Brexit, trade and echoes of the past – Frances Coppola

  ITALY

The Italian constitutional reform and legislative efficiency – vox

Italian ‘Yes’ Vote Won’t Solve Nation’s Problems, Investor Says – BB

The Stakes of Italy’s Referendum – Project Syndicate

5 things Italians vote on this week – Politico

Up To Eight Italian Banks May Fail If Renzi Loses Referendum – ZH

Italian Banks Hit Again Ahead of the Looming December 4th Referendum – ZH

Roger Bootle: Italy needs reform and a euro exit is inevitable – The Telegraph

What Will Italy’s Referendum Mean for the Euro? – BB

Why a “No” vote would be a risk for financial stability – Italy24

UNITED STATES

Paul Krugman: The Populism Perplex – NYT

On Krugman And The Working Class – Tim Duy

El-Erian: Sustaining the Trump Rally – Project Syndicate

Since Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, stock markets have rallied and the dollar has soared. Explaining these unforeseen market responses could provide a glimpse into what the next few months hold in store for the US economy.

OTHER

Macro Monday: Risks to EURUSD destination parity Part II – TF
Everything continues to shape up for EURUSD parity. We see risks skewed to the downside and are selling into any strength while risks remain.

Dollar Rally Hinges on Fed Moves as Traders Eye Jobs Report Next – BB

Higher Treasury yields bolster demand for the greenback * Fed rate move, Trump spending plans are key for bonds

Global Economic Outlook, November 2016 – OECD

OECD Boosts Global Growth Forecasts On Trump Optimism – ZH

“Fiscal initiatives could catalyse private economic activity and push the global economy to the modestly higher growth rate of around 3½ per cent by 2018. Durable exit from the low-growth trap depends on policy choices beyond those of the monetary authorities – that is, of fiscal and structural, including trade policies – as well as on concerted and effective implementation.”

Matt Levine: Index Funds, Quants and Hedging – BB

Fidel Castro, Cuban Revolutionary Who Defied U.S., Dies at 90 – NYT
Editorial: Cuba After Castro – View / BB

The Running Conversation in Your Head – The Atlantic

What a close study of "inner speech" reveals about why humans talk to themselves

The Psychology of Eye Contact, Digested – PBS

REGULARS

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Eye-Opener – Nordea

Falling Black Friday sales, French primaries, higher EUR/USD * OPEC meeting and Italian referendum ahead * Rates subject to data risks – US ISM, payrolls * USD/JPY rally overdone, downside more likely

Morning Markets – TF

Oil bulls have got quite used to false hope in the last two years but a failure to get a deal in time for Wednesday's big Opec meeting in Vienna would signal the kind of retreat that could have both benchmarks south of $45/barrel quicker than you can say 'oil production deal'.

Daily Market Comment – Marc Chandler

Corrective Forces Seen in Asia, Subside in Europe

Daily Press Summary – Open Europe

Brussels Playbook – Politico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – BB

Oil slides * Metals surge * Dollar slips * Stocks mixed * Fillon wins French nomination

US Open – ZH

Global Stocks Slide On Italian Bank Worries; Dollar Dips As Trumpflation Takes A Back Seat

Frontrunning – ZH

FX Update: USD consolidation kicks off the week – TF

The Monday Asian session kicked off with a sharp consolidation in the US dollar rally. Coming in the dead of night in the US after the long holiday weekend the move smacks of poor liquidity and running of stops in an over-positioned market.

FINNISH

Aamukatsaus – Nordea

OPEC-maat kokoontuvat keskiviikkona Wieniin päättämään öljyn mahdollisista tuotantorajoituksista * Sunnuntaina pidetään Italian kansanäänestys perustuslakiuudistuksesta * Euro vahvistunut selvästi suhteessa dollariin aamuyöllä

Mitä vihapuheen käsitteellä voidaan selittää? – Jukka Hankamäki

Jan Hurri: Merkel vai Trump – kumpi on isompi riski? – IS