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Monday, November 28

28th Nov - First signs of Trump-trade dying

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Hans-Werner Sinn: Europe’s Secret BailoutProject Syndicate
While the world worries about Donald Trump, Brexit, and refugees, the European Central Bank continues to work below the public radar on its debt-restructuring plan – also known as quantitative easing – to ease the burden on the over-indebted eurozone countries. It's a high-risk operation, especially for Germany and the Netherlands.,

Wolfgang Münchau: The elite’s Marie Antoinette moment FT
Right response is to focus on the financial sector and inequality

Monetary dialogue European parliament committeesEU

Why we need a positive fiscal stance for the Eurozone and what it meansvox
Fiscal space and low interest rates: A Eurozone perspectivevox

Greece needs to show commitment to rescue program: ECB's Coeure

Editorial: France Needs Someone to Stop Le PenView / BB
Where may the Populist-Nationalist Forces Stall? Marc Chandler

Britain doesn’t need to trigger article 50, it can just leave EU – BI
The New Brexit Headache - After Article 50 Comes Article 127 – Forbes
BoE's Carney wants lengthy Brexit transition for UK firms – Reuters
Brexit, trade and echoes of the past – Frances Coppola

The Italian constitutional reform and legislative efficiency – vox
Italian ‘Yes’ Vote Won’t Solve Nation’s Problems, Investor Says – BB
The Stakes of Italy’s Referendum – Project Syndicate
5 things Italians vote on this week – Politico
Up To Eight Italian Banks May Fail If Renzi Loses Referendum – ZH
Italian Banks Hit Again Ahead of the Looming December 4th Referendum – ZH
Roger Bootle: Italy needs reform and a euro exit is inevitable – The Telegraph
What Will Italy’s Referendum Mean for the Euro? – BB
Why a “No” vote would be a risk for financial stability – Italy24

Paul Krugman: The Populism PerplexNYT
On Krugman And The Working ClassTim Duy

El-Erian: Sustaining the Trump Rally – Project Syndicate
Since Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, stock markets have rallied and the dollar has soared. Explaining these unforeseen market responses could provide a glimpse into what the next few months hold in store for the US economy.

Macro Monday: Risks to EURUSD destination parity Part IITF
Everything continues to shape up for EURUSD parity. We see risks skewed to the downside and are selling into any strength while risks remain.

Dollar Rally Hinges on Fed Moves as Traders Eye Jobs Report Next BB
Higher Treasury yields bolster demand for the greenback * Fed rate move, Trump spending plans are key for bonds

Global Economic Outlook, November 2016OECD
OECD Boosts Global Growth Forecasts On Trump OptimismZH
“Fiscal initiatives could catalyse private economic activity and push the global economy to the modestly higher growth rate of around 3½ per cent by 2018. Durable exit from the low-growth trap depends on policy choices beyond those of the monetary authorities – that is, of fiscal and structural, including trade policies – as well as on concerted and effective implementation.”

Matt Levine: Index Funds, Quants and HedgingBB

Fidel Castro, Cuban Revolutionary Who Defied U.S., Dies at 90
Editorial: Cuba After Castro
View / BB

The Running Conversation in Your Head The Atlantic
What a close study of "inner speech" reveals about why humans talk to themselves

The Psychology of Eye Contact, DigestedPBS

Danske DailyDanske Bank

Falling Black Friday sales, French primaries, higher EUR/USD * OPEC meeting and Italian referendum ahead * Rates subject to data risks – US ISM, payrolls * USD/JPY rally overdone, downside more likely

Morning Markets TF
Oil bulls have got quite used to false hope in the last two years but a failure to get a deal in time for Wednesday's big Opec meeting in Vienna would signal the kind of retreat that could have both benchmarks south of $45/barrel quicker than you can say 'oil production deal'.

Daily Market Comment Marc Chandler
Corrective Forces Seen in Asia, Subside in Europe

Daily Press Summary Open Europe

Brussels PlaybookPolitico

Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day BB
Oil slides * Metals surge * Dollar slips * Stocks mixed * Fillon wins French nomination

US Open ZH
Global Stocks Slide On Italian Bank Worries; Dollar Dips As Trumpflation Takes A Back Seat


FX Update: USD consolidation kicks off the week TF
The Monday Asian session kicked off with a sharp consolidation in the US dollar rally. Coming in the dead of night in the US after the long holiday weekend the move smacks of poor liquidity and running of stops in an over-positioned market.

OPEC-maat kokoontuvat keskiviikkona Wieniin päättämään öljyn mahdollisista tuotantorajoituksista * Sunnuntaina pidetään Italian kansanäänestys perustuslakiuudistuksesta * Euro vahvistunut selvästi suhteessa dollariin aamuyöllä

Mitä vihapuheen käsitteellä voidaan selittää?Jukka Hankamäki

Jan Hurri: Merkel vai Trump – kumpi on isompi riski?IS