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Saturday, December 15

15th Dec - Weekender: Europe

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Brussels blog round-up for 8 – 14 December: French conservatives implode, Wilders resurgent, and should Europe accept higher inflation?europp / LSE

The Euroless Union?Project Syndicate
Barry Eichengreen: Europe can either move forward, toward deeper integration, or it can move backward, toward national sovereignty. Its leaders and, this time, its people need to decide. It is on their decision alone that the future of both the euro and the EU depends.

Europe’s long shadowProspect
Will a continent turn its back on democracy?

An interview on Europe, globalization, and the future of the EurozoneRodrik’s
The main argument in The Globalization Paradox is that we can’t simultaneously pursue economic globalization, democracy and national determination, but at most have two out of three. You also write that EU was the exception that tests the rule. Well, hasn’t the on-going crisis shown that this trilemma definitely also holds true for the EU? And hasn’t the crisis revealed that the European nations are not so similiar as it may have appeared? The differences between North and South Europe are perhaps so great that such a large union is an unrealistic project, not to mention the Eastern Europe?

Europe: The Vision ThingMarc to Market
The real difference in material interests generates different visions for the future of Europe. 

Europe’s Debt-Relief CalculusProject Syndicate
More and more Europeans are coming around to the view that Greece needs to have its debt cut yet again, and that this time official claims on Greece should be cut as well. But few Europeans today believe that Italy, Spain or Portugal, much less France, will need debt reduction. Give them time. It was not so long ago that few Europeans could imagine a euro crisis.

The German Erosion: Dilemmas of the Last Triple-A Eurozone EconomiesEconoMonitor
Until recently, the Eurozone crisis was cushioned by the strong performance of the German economy. But those days are fading.

Capital outflows in the euro area: is there a sign of relief?bruegel

Europe’s Two-Speed FutureProject Syndicate
The eurozone’s path to genuine economic union will be fraught with political and institutional challenges – from determining substantive areas of cooperation to protecting the rights and interests of all EU countries and safeguarding the unity of both the internal market and foreign relations. But navigating that path is the EU’s only option.

Populism has the potential to damage European democracy, but demonising populist parties is self-defeatingeuropp / LSE

Germany’s pact with the devilThe Irish Times / presseurop
For anyone struggling to grasp German attitudes to money and debt in the eurozone crisis, all roads lead to Frankfurt.

Financial-transaction taxes: Early evidence from the French taxThe Economist
Taxing finance is easier for European politicians than taking responsibility for it.

The French Death Rattle Project Syndicate
So the death rattle of the French economic model continues. What remains to be seen is how the end will come. And, whether it comes in the form of a capital strike by foreign bondholders, or of domestic labor strikes and wider social and political unrest, France’s leaders remain entirely unprepared for the inevitable.

Draghi - Interview with Financial TimesECB
With Lionel Barber, FT editor and Michael Steen, Frankfurt bureau chief, on 11-Dec and published on 14-Dec 

Sharp banking sector deleveraging still hampers Ireland's economic recoverySober Look 

Fighting Recession the Icelandic WayView / BB

The Icelandic Success StoryZH

Banking union flatters Germany’s financial physiquepresseurop
After the euphoria following the agreement on banking supervision that was finally reached between the 27 member states – the embryo of a banking union – the European press, given the details of the mechanism worked out in Brussels, has lost some enthusiasm.

Europe Takes an Important Step Forward on BankingPIIE

EU Bank Regulation Deal Marks Path to True Economic UnionView / BB
The euro area still needs a permanent system for fiscal transfers to help vulnerable economies in the future. Yet the fact that leaders could agree on a single banking authority shows there is a desire and the political will to achieve a true economic union. It may take another five years to get there, but the pathway has been marked. 

Macroprudential supervision in banking
Eurozone banking union discussions are full of questions about the scope of Eurozone microprudential bank supervision. Yet, this column argues that there is surprisingly little debate on the macroprudential supervision that is necessary to safeguard the wider European financial system. After all it is macro developments, such as fast rising housing prices, that lie at the heart of the ongoing crisis in Europe. To safeguard the financial system, Eurozone macroprudential tools should be under the ECB, separate from microprudential functions, with input from national central banks when differentiation is necessary.

Financial Stability Review Dec-2012ECB

Non-bank finance in Europe: Embracing the alternativesThe Economist
Banks are changing. That means other providers of capital must step forward, especially in Europe

Non-bank finance: Filling the bank-shaped holeThe Economist
Europe’s banks are shrinking. What will take their place?

Europe’s worries about ItalyThe Economist
The resignation of Mario Monti as Italy’s prime minister, provoked by Silvio Berlusconi’s attempt to return to power, is worrying Europe’s chancelleries.

(audio) World Weekly: The looming political showdown in ItalyFT
Italian prime minister Mario Monti has said he’ll resign, making elections likely to occur next February. But who is likely to win, or even who will run, remains unclear. Both Mr Monti and Silvio Berlusconi are possible candidates. Guy Dinmore, FT bureau chief in Rome, Tony Barber, Europe editor, and Ferdinando Giugliano, leader writer, join Gideon Rachman.

Will Monti run for prime minister?The Economist
How to prevent Silvio Berlusconi from returning to power

Italian politics in turmoil: Run, Mario, runThe Economist
A rare chance of reform in Italy—but its current prime minister needs to come out fighting