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Wednesday, December 12

12th Dec - Fed Watch Repeat

FOMC links from my previous posts, have fun!




Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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7-DEC
Monetary Policy to Become Easier Next Week?Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
There are reasons to expect the Fed would go the full monty.  Notably, the fiscal cliff drama already appears to be affecting the economy, even though it is more risk than reality.  But why are inflation expectations sliding?  And what does that imply about the effectiveness of additional easing at this juncture?  Important but as of yet unanswered questions. 

8-DEC
G10 Weekly: Swedish winter stormNordea (pdf)
Sweden: Winter storm * Fed: From twist to tango? * AUD: The IMF boost * Data watch: US NFP at 0

Weekly Focus: ECB opens the door for negative ratesDanske (pdf)
We expect Fed to replace the current Operation Twist programme with outright treasury purchases at the FOMC meeting next week * The deadline for a deal on the US fiscal cliff is moving closer and we expect Congressional leaders to meet for further negotiations * In the euro area, the main release is flash PMIs but politics will also be in focus with the EU summit and an extraordinary ECOFIN meeting scheduled next week. * We expect Chinese hard data to confirm soft data indications of a moderate recovery.

Global Week Ahead: Focus on policy makersNordea (pdf)          
or read the summary

10-DEC
FOMC Projections PreviewCalculated Risk

FOMC preview: Another monetary policy boostDanske Bank (pdf)

FOMC, possible "QE4", SNB and Japan election - a busy week aheadSaxo Bank
The currency market has a lot to busy itself with this week, with the FOMC and a “QE4” likely in the wings on Wednesday, followed by a possibly pivotal SNB meeting on Thursday and then Japan’s election over the weekend.

Global Economy Week AheadReuters
Fed's monetary stimulus meets 'fiscal cliff': The contrast could not be sharper: Economists are all but certain the U.S. Federal Reserve will expand its monetary stimulus this week, but they have no clue how the fiscal battle in Congress will shake out.

11-DEC
FOMC Preview: New monthly purchases likely after Operation TwistSaxo Bank

Jobs, triggers and the FedMacroScope / Reuters
The unemployment rate alone cannot capture the state of the labor market. Friday’s report show why.

Fed Seen Buying More BondsWSJ

Relatively flat base growth and slowing M2 (though less relevant) makes us think the Fed will remain aggressive.

12-DEC
Market Preview: Eyes on FOMC meeting and EU Industrial ProductionSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open firmer Wednesday amid optimism that the Federal Reserve might announce further easing measures at its monetary policy meeting later today. Investors also eye Eurozone industrial production and German CPI data.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Risk appetite higher as tensions in Italy ease. The tone softened a bit in the fiscal cliff negotiations. Greece concludes bond buy-back, paving the way for aid payment. At today’s Fed meeting we expect a rise in asset purchases of USD45bn.

Fed set to expand its monetary stimulusReuters
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a fresh round of bond buying on Wednesday as part of its efforts to support a fragile economic recovery threatened by political wrangling over the government's budget.

FOMC: Buy the rumour, sell the fact, or something else?Saxo Bank
It’s all about the FOMC meeting today and what the Fed announces and the guidance it offers for the future. At issue is the replacement of the current Operation Twist. Here are a few scenarios for what Ben Bernanke & Co might do today.

Bernanke Critics Can’t Fight Bonds Showing No InflationBB

Fed set to expand its monetary stimulusReuters