Previously on MoreLiver’s:
7-DEC
Monetary Policy to Become
Easier Next Week? – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
There are reasons to expect the Fed would go the full monty. Notably, the fiscal cliff drama already
appears to be affecting the economy, even though it is more risk than
reality. But why are inflation
expectations sliding? And what does that
imply about the effectiveness of additional easing at this juncture? Important but as of yet unanswered questions.
Sweden: Winter storm * Fed: From twist to
tango? * AUD: The IMF boost * Data watch: US NFP at 0
Weekly Focus: ECB opens the door for negative
rates – Danske
(pdf)
We expect
Fed to replace the current Operation Twist programme with outright treasury
purchases at the FOMC meeting next week * The deadline for a deal on the US
fiscal cliff is moving closer and we expect Congressional leaders to meet for
further negotiations * In the euro area, the main release is flash PMIs but
politics will also be in focus with the EU summit and an extraordinary ECOFIN
meeting scheduled next week. * We expect Chinese hard data to confirm soft data
indications of a moderate recovery.
Global Week Ahead: Focus on policy makers– Nordea
(pdf)
or read the
summary
10-DEC
FOMC Projections Preview – Calculated
Risk
FOMC preview: Another monetary policy boost – Danske
Bank (pdf)
The
currency market has a lot to busy itself with this week, with the FOMC and a
“QE4” likely in the wings on Wednesday, followed by a possibly pivotal SNB meeting on Thursday and then
Japan’s election over the weekend.
Global Economy Week Ahead – Reuters
Fed's
monetary stimulus meets 'fiscal cliff': The contrast could not be sharper:
Economists are all but certain the U.S. Federal Reserve will expand its
monetary stimulus this week, but they have no clue how the fiscal battle in
Congress will shake out.
11-DEC
FOMC Preview: New
monthly purchases likely after Operation Twist – Saxo
Bank
Jobs, triggers and the Fed – MacroScope
/ Reuters
The
unemployment rate alone cannot capture the state of the labor market. Friday’s
report show why.
Fed Seen Buying More Bonds – WSJ
Relatively
flat base growth and slowing M2 (though less relevant) makes us think the Fed
will remain aggressive.
12-DEC
Market Preview: Eyes on FOMC meeting and EU
Industrial Production
– Saxo
Bank
European markets
are expected to open firmer Wednesday amid optimism that the Federal Reserve
might announce further easing measures at its monetary policy meeting later
today. Investors also eye Eurozone industrial production and German CPI data.
Risk
appetite higher as tensions in Italy ease. The tone softened a bit in
the fiscal cliff negotiations. Greece concludes bond buy-back, paving the
way for aid payment. At today’s Fed meeting we expect a rise in asset purchases
of USD45bn.
Fed set to expand its
monetary stimulus – Reuters
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a fresh
round of bond buying on Wednesday as part of its efforts to support a fragile
economic recovery threatened by political wrangling over the government's
budget.
FOMC: Buy the rumour,
sell the fact, or something else? – Saxo
Bank
It’s all
about the FOMC meeting today and what the Fed announces and the guidance it
offers for the future. At issue is the replacement of the current Operation
Twist. Here are a few scenarios for what Ben Bernanke & Co might do today.
Bernanke Critics Can’t Fight Bonds Showing No
Inflation – BB
Fed set to expand its monetary stimulus – Reuters