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Saturday, December 1

1st Dec - Weekender: Best of The Week

The best links from the ending week's posts. Previous BoW here.




Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EUROPE
Should Europe Emulate the US?bruegel
Europe, by contrast, put early emphasis on restoring fiscal sustainability, but neglected its private-sector maladies… As a result, Europe emerged from the recession with too many zombie banks, wounded households, and struggling companies. In Germany, the private economy was fit enough to recover, but this was less true in southern Europe or even France.

“The Euro Will Blow Up Europe Instead Of Bringing It Together” Testosterone Pit

Crisis Could Be Causing the Balkanization of EuropeOpinion / BB

Portugal and Ireland: Us Too, PleaseMarc to Market
An under-appreciated twist to the plot, however, comes from Ireland and Portugal.  Recall that 2011 mid-year summit, European officials adopted a principle of equal treatment under the framework of the EFSF.  Essentially, this means that consideration given to Greece out to applied to the other countries who are receive EFSF assistance, namely Ireland and Portugal.             

Ireland to study new Greek deal for bailout benefits Reuters
Ireland will scour the euro zone's new Greek aid deal for anything that would help Dublin's efforts to pull free from its own EU/IMF bailout as scheduled next year, Finance Minister Michael Noonan said on Thursday.

Barroso's Christmas wish listOpen Europe
The Christmas wish list, or as Barroso puts it "A Blueprint for a deep and genuine EMU" is as follows:

A negative euro lending rate and year-end funding pressurealphaville / FT
Llenders currently have to pay people to take their euros off them…rates on the euro side of a 3 month basis swap have now moved decisively into negative territory, for the first time ever.

  RESCUE VEHICLES
EFSF reacts to recent developments with the announcement of a one-year bondEFSF

Why the ESM rules OK (says the ECJ)alphaville / FT
worth reading through the European Court of Justice’s judgment on the ESM in Pringle v Ireland, delivered on Tuesday.

European Rescue Mechanism Loses AAA RatingZH
The ESM loses an Aaa alphaville / FT
Moody’s downgrades the ESM ESM to Aa1 frin Aaa, EFSF to (P)Aa1 from Aaa

  GREECE
After The Fat Lady SingsA Fistful of Euros
The curious thing about the holdup in this case is that it isn’t the result of a stand-off between the Troika and the Greek government.  Last week the Greek parliament passed the final set of budget decrees required by the international lenders to enable the transfer. No, in this case the dispute is an “internal affair” between the rival parties which make up the Troika, and in particular between the German government and the IMF.

On Europe's Apparent UtopiaZH
Credit Suisse: The inability, yet again, of the Eurogroup to reach an agreement in the absence of market stress we don’t think bodes well for the ECB-backed positive market environment to be sustained into 2013.

The Latest Greek Deal – Another Indictment of IntergovernmentalismPlace du Luxembourg

The Greek Debt Buyback 'Boondoggle' - Questions AnsweredZH

Reaction to Greek DealWSJ

New Greek bailout: the leaked chart Brussels blog

Find “projected debt-to-GDP ratio” where country = “Greece”; run eyeroll.exealphaville / FT

Buying back Greece: another ad hoc deal or a step towards a solution?Open Europe

Morning Briefing (Asia): Dow On A Rollercoaster RideBNY Mellon
Time for a quick Q&A on the state of play with the Greek bailout talks.

UNITED STATES
Morgan Stanley 2013 Market Call, Three Big IdeasBI

361 Capital Weekly Research BriefingThe Reformed Broker

Goldman's Guess At 'Cliff' Compromise CompositionZH

A Little Less Dovish...Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
By shifting his threshold on inflation, Evan's concedes to the political realities within the Fed.  There was never much support for anything like tolerance for 3 percent inflation; for most policymakers, I suspect anything above 2.25 percent would be considered a threat to credibility.  By falling in line with the rest of the FOMC, Evan abandons his role as a true dove, someone willing to tolerate substantially higher inflation.  He is a dove now in the modern sense - a policymaker with a lower inflation forecast that allows for a longer period of easier policy.

First, assume a can-openerFree exchange / The Economist
Those of us who have spent much of the past few years complaining that Federal Reserve policy was too tight to nurture a strong economic recovery are grateful for Chicago Fed president Charles Evans

MARKETS & ECON
Global Central Bank Focus: Déjà Vu All Over AgainPIMCO
​If the eurozone is to endure, it will require reduced economic differences among countries and larger common fiscal capacity…While central banks in advanced economies have not traditionally used explicit policies to target exchange rates, the European debt crisis may change all that.

Score Card for 2012 Trade IdeasGlobal Macro Trading

Global economy facing hesitant and uneven recoveryOECD
OECD Economic OutlookOECD

The death of volatility?alphaville / FT
Central bank puts have done a great job of removing tail risks…In FX, the move in volatility has been notable:

Economic Outlook Global – Here comes the sunNordea (pdf)
or read the summary

China’s over-investment problemalphaville / FT
A new IMF working paper lays out what many China sceptics have been saying for years: the country has too much investment, and households are bearing the costs.

IN FINNISH
Ulkoisen ja sisäisen devalvaation vertailua osa I: sisäinen devalvaatio tappaa kotitaloudettyhmyri

Mikä tepsii kriisiin: Baltian, Irlannin vai Islannin lääke?Jan Hurri / TalSa
Baltia taltutti talouskriisin railakkain vyönkiristyksin, jollaiset näyttävät Irlannissakin vähitellen tepsivän. Kreikka ja muut etelän kriisimaat nielevät turhaan samaa lääkettä, vaikka potevat eri tauteja. Paha hoitovirhe olisi mahdollista välttää – tosin kielletyin lääkkein. Oikea resepti ei löydy Baltiasta tai Irlannista vaan Islannista.

JP Morgan: Suomi eron jälkeenJuhani Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro

Käsittämätön tilanne Suomessa: ”Päättäjät valvovat itse itseään ja päättävät, mitä kerrotaan poliisille”Uusi Suomi

130 kadonnutta miljardiaRisto Pennanen / TalSa
Parinkymmenen vuoden hyvinvointisykäys on vaakalaudalla. Siksi on pakko keksiä uutta vietävää.

Tämä vielä puuttui – nyt pelastamme vipurahastojaJan Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjät juhlivat jälleen Kreikan valtion uusia "pelastustoimia", vaikka nämäkään toimet tuskin pelastavat Kreikkaa tai lopettavat kriisiä. Virallinen Suomi ottaa osaa iloon, vaikka tiedossa on tappioita. Aitoa juhlan aihetta lienee lähinnä vipurahastoilla, joille Kreikka III tietää meheviä pikavoittoja.

Suomi romahti euroalueen pohjilleUS

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