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Monday, December 17

17th Dec - US Close: Crisis creeping?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups and Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape – WSJ
Morning Briefing (Asia): USD Remains Offered – BNY Mellon
US: Volatility Hammered As Stocks And Bond Yields Close At Highs– ZH

Debt crisis live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

The Eurozone’s Delayed ReckoningProject Syndicate
Nouriel Roubini: The tail risks of a Greek exit from the eurozone or a massive loss of market access in Italy and Spain have been reduced for 2013. But the fundamental crisis of the eurozone has not been resolved, and another year of muddling through could revive these risks in a more virulent form in 2014 and beyond.

The probability of Greek exit,
Jens Nordvig: Fears of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone have subsided, for now. This column attempts to measure the probability of a Greek exit, finding that the changing fortunes of Greek political parties, and the possibility of an early election, mean that the risk of a Greek exit may actually be quite high. It suggests that, despite investors' efforts to measure political risk, a persistent sense of unease about the Eurozone’s future is set to continue into 2013 and that Eurozone financial assets will thus continue to embed significant risk premiums in the coming years.

Dutch finance minister mooted for Eurogroup posteuobserver

Growth problemButtonwood / The Economist
It may well be that European economies would perform better collectively if austerity programmes were relaxed. But it is a stretch to believe that Europe can return to the growth rates seen in the 1960s or even the 1970s. And those rates might be needed to make the debt problem go painlessly away.

The eurozone’s struggling economies are increasingly selling citizenship to raise much needed capitaleuropp / LSE
How far should countries go to encourage foreign investment? Jelena Dzankic writes that in a time of economic crisis, some countries in Europe are now seeking investment in exchange for citizenship.

Speech Mario DraghiECB
Introductory statement at the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament

The Fiscal Cliff and US Foreign PolicyProject Syndicate
Global markets are watching nervously as the US approaches the “fiscal cliff,” knowing that falling over it could well throw America – and the world – back into recession. But foreign ministries around the world should be equally nervous: Unless the US gets its fiscal house in order, it will be forced to abdicate global leadership.

Four Reasons Why There Is No 'Pent-Up' Capex SpendZH
Morgan Stanley: While US inventory levels seem leaner than those outside the
US, a big inventory build requiring a capacity surge seems implausible.

Can “Abeanomics” Save Japan’s Economy?The Diplomat
On Sunday Japanese voters gave Shinzo Abe and the LDP a landslide win. Can he revive Japan's growth prospects?

Implications of Japan’s new government: Another false dawnNordea (pdf)
or read the summary

Sentiment and trading viewsBehavioral Macro
Gold, Silver, AAPL and Mortgage REITs

Emerging Markets Briefer Dec-2012Danske Bank (pdf)

Yield Forecast Update - Curve steepening to continueDanske Bank (pdf)

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