Most popular posts
from the first quarter.
Sunday, March 31
31st Mar - Credit Guest: Gunfight at the O.K Corralito
This week’s guest post
from Macronomics discusses the unintended consequences of the bailin of Cyprus: how will depositors react? Where will they carry their funds? What does this mean to prices? After naked long sovereign CDS bans, are there any instruments that even could react? All in an entertaining style drawing lessons from famous fights (think of a complex Mexican stand-off) and game theory.
Saturday, March 30
30th Mar - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links to
the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last
week's 'Support' here.
Due to the holidays this post is missing a lot of stuff, but I’ll fill in later.
30th Mar - Weekender: The Linkfest
This weekend's linkfest is a smart bomb of European misery. Weekly preview&review-post 'Weekly Support coming up next.
Thursday, March 28
Wednesday, March 27
27th Mar - US Close: European Disaster
Credit markets in Europe go back into crisis mode: German bond yields collapse, Southern Europe's surge. Switzerland is not the safe haven anymore. Cyprus to open its banks tomorrow, while seasonals and macro are not good for the risk assets. ECB coming up next week, and probably will not do anything. Terrible stuff. Read the two ones marked red.
27th Mar - EU Open: Slowdown, Easter bunny & Finnish
Markets are getting into a holiday mood: end of the month, long weekend and waiting for clarification on Cyprus.
Tuesday, March 26
26th Mar - US Close: Europe's Levyathan
The Cyprus post has been updated. It looks like saving
the banks via financial repression and ‘deposit levies’ i.e. confiscating
deposits is becoming a major issue, and I will create a dedicated post for that…
Näyttää siltä, että kevään ykkösuutinen on pankkien pelastelu tallettajien varojen pöllimisellä. Väsäilen lähipäivinä Kyrpos-postia vastaavan "Levyathan"-postauksen, jota päivittelen tilanteen kehittyessä. Ja sitten Kypros. Ttarina alkaa osoittaa sammumisen merkkejä. 20%-bkt-rommaus, isompi kuin Suomessa, on edessä. Kannattaisi lähteä eurosta, mutta tuskin tajuavat. Saa nähdä - ehkä toi talletusten karkaaminen vetää tuonkin paskasaaren taas keskipisteeksi. Kukaan ei edes huomaa jonkun FED:n ukon höpinöitä, kun kaikki seuraa Eurooppaa.
Tulee Merkelille hauskat vaalit.
26th Mar - US Open: The Dijsselbloem Affair
Joke / not true:
In a stunning victory
for the small country, the finance minister of Finland Mrs. Jutta Urpilainen has been named as the
new head of the Eurogroup.
Many commentators
believe that the choice will work in favor of the federalists ahead of the
all-important European Parliament election in 2015, as she is head of the
Social Democratic Party of Finland (pro people), a woman (always helps) and
comes from a neutral creditor country officially opposing federalisation, but
in reality agreeing with everything Germany decides to throw at it.
Under Urpilainen's
term, the fiscal situation of the Republic of Finland has deteriorated
hand-in-hand with the euro crisis, while simultaneously the balance sheet items
related to rescue measures and thus the nation's liabilities have increased
more than after the WWII or during the financial crisis of the early nineties.
With that track
record, the euro and the European Union will surely become the success stories
they are often said to be.
Monday, March 25
25th Mar - US Open
This is going to be a dull week - especially with the holidays approaching... Next week we have the ECB meeting and US payrolls. I "sense a disturbance in the force": market wisdom says buy the rumor, sell the fact. Not just because markets discount the news before the event, but also because the "news" tends to disappoint. The Cyprus has not been solved, and new trouble is coming toward us already.
25th Mar - EU Open: Cyprus done
The deal on Cyprus is done: see my massive linkfest for the latest updates. Otherwise, it will be a dull week (see the Weekly Support for previews): Fed speakers, US durable good, EU unemployment and M3 money supply. Heavy stuff not until next week (US payrolls and ECB meeting).
Sunday, March 24
24th Mar - Weekender: Europe & Markets
Note that
Cyprus-related articles are collected in the Special. I haven't collected much of Econ & Off-Topic links - I know the posts are popular, but there are limits to my time.
24th Mar - Credit Guest: The Doubt in the Shadow
Macronomics is back with an extensive credit piece:
Saturday, March 23
23rd Mar - Weekender: Weekly Support
Here are the links
to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning
week. Last week's 'Support' here.
Friday, March 22
22nd Mar - US Open
Let’s see
if this will be “a weekend to remember”… The Special:
Bailout of Cyprus has been updated.
Quote of the Day: Five Minute Macro @5_min_macro: “Cyprus is the equity tranche of Greece.”
22nd Mar - EU Open
So, will Cyprus be solved during the weekend? If yes, you should be risk-on around Friday's close. If no, you'd better pray - though risk-off could help.
Thursday, March 21
21st Mar - US Close: Cyprus on the Edge
Quote of the Day, 18/01/2008, Trichet: “For a small, open
economy like Cyprus, Euro adoption provides protection
from international financial turmoil.”
21st Mar - US Open: Terrible Euro-PMIs
Terrible PMI-numbers from Europe today. Tomorrow the IFO index from Germany. The
Cyprus-post has been updated.
21st Mar - EU Open: PMI Day
It's the Markit Flash PMI day today - tomorrow German IFO.
France 07:58 GMT
Germany 08:28 GMT
Europe 09:00 GMT
US 13:00 GMT
Wednesday, March 20
20th Mar - US Close: Europe, Worried
The euro project is doubted widely now. No surprise, given the macro, the plans and the handling of the bailout of Cyprus. I believe this is now the fourth year when "everything is solved" around the new year, things deteriorate slowly towards the spring...
20th Mar - Special: Fed Watch
Federal
Reserve's Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting. With
slow/moderate growth, eurocrisis back at "orange level" and the
recent worries over the Fed's balance
sheet expansion, the hawks are expected
to be muted.
The FOMC
decided at an earlier date to prepare studies on the effectiveness and possible
unintended side-effects of the asset purchase programs, and Bernanke will
probably be questioned on them during the press conference. However, I think
the real meat will be hidden in the minutes of the meeting - to be released at an later date.
Tuesday, March 19
19th Mar - US Close
The Cyprus-post
has been updated, again. FOMC press tomorrow, though Cyprus could steal the show.
19th Mar - US Open: Cyprus still, Fed Ahead
The
Cyprus-piece has been updated, again. Let's not forget the FOMC!
Offline!
Monitor resigned - MoreLiver's Daily hopes to return to normal schedule later today.
Sorry!
Monday, March 18
18th Mar - US Close: Made the Hedge
An article of mine just 'made the hedge' - was featured on Zero Hedge. Wooo!
I just updated the "Cyprus Special". Next stop will be the FOMC (Tue-Wed), although the minutes from the meeting (to be released later) are probably of greater interest than the press statement on Wed.
18th Mar - US Open
The Cyprus Bailout special (just updated it) is now my most popular article ever, only second to the LTRO-linkfest - but that was featured on The Financial Times.
18th Mar - EU Open
My Special is becoming one of my most popular posts ever. I'll update it again with the latest articles next.
Saturday, March 16
16th Mar - Special: Bailout of Cyprus
Last update 14-Apr. Links from oldest to newest. The legendary "angry cab driver"-video is definitely not safe for work.
16th Mar - Weekender: The World
This week's 'The World' has plenty on the bailout of Cyprus and IMF's latest assesment of the EU. Interesting compromise on Cyprus: small haircut on deposits, with bank stocks offered in return to the depositors.
Personally I believe a simple gift of EUR 5bn of free money would have been a better choice. The lending of 10bn raises the debt/GDP, lowers the growth prospects, forces austerity and has the danger of creating a negative spiral that could turn the island into a second Greece: a continuous source of headaches and disappointment to the EU. The haircut is small and Rehn states this is a one-off. Whether depositors in e.g. Spain believe this remains to be seen. If not, the bank jog could start again. That could push Spain to eventually apply for the ECB's OMT-program, and perhaps that is what the Brussels and ECB actually want.
16th Mar - Weekender: Weekly Support
The last week reviewed – and the next previewed!
Previous Weekly Support here.
Friday, March 15
15th Mar - EU Open
Cyprus decision expected in the US hours. Day will be dominated by the US data, ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.
Thursday, March 14
Wednesday, March 13
13th Mar - US Close
We had a relatively good Feb Retail Sales from US, markets are dull. Booring... Cyprus talk on Friday, FED next week.
Tuesday, March 12
Monday, March 11
11th Mar - EU Open: RIP 1966-2013
My guess for the week's main events: Euromeeting, discussing Cyprus, even though it is not the supposed main topic. On Friday, the first data for March, as we get the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Next week FOMC, so the current week could be dull.
Sunday, March 10
Saturday, March 9
Friday, March 8
Thursday, March 7
7th Mar - Special: ECB Watch
I will add
content and comments to this post during and after today’s press. Last update: 23:30 GMT 7-MarchWednesday, March 6
Tuesday, March 5
5th Mar - US Close
Interesting! Italy's Five Star-party hires Stiglitz to write their economic program. Something that the EU commission should have thought about. Add to that the 5* has stated it will not accept a technocratic government, and it could very well be that Italy will end up having a sane, debt-restructuring, euro-exiting and fiscally less austere government at some point.
Also, plenty of Finnish stuff: the antieuro True Finns have made statements that do not suggest demands for an immediate euro exit. This somehow is big news, though nothing has changed policy-wise.
Monday, March 4
Sunday, March 3
Saturday, March 2
Friday, March 1
1st Mar - EU Open
Deadline. MS Word. A journalist without words, without
charts. Alone. Deep undercover. Letter by letter, words begin to take form. A
sentence is finished. Sentences turn into paragraphs. Ideas become expressed.
The text finishes in time, just like it always has. The Man will be happy for
now, but its hunger is insatiable, and fresh 500-word minimums must be fed to
it, so that the journalist can eat.
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