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Monday, March 4

4th Mar - EU Open: Eurogroup

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers To Watch: EURUSD, Eurozone Sentix Index, EU PPITradingFloor
The economic and political differences between Europe and the US will continue to weigh on EURUSD, with only minimal relief, if any, expected in today's releases of Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index and Eurozone Producer Prices.

Market Preview: Eurogroup meeting and EU investor confidence eyedTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open weak Monday. Investors keenly await Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data due later today which is likely to show deterioration in March. Additionally, Euro-area finance ministers meeting would be in focus.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
The political outlook in Italy remains uncertain. Bersani insists that he will form a minority government but has given no explanation on how this will be done. The US equity markets closed on a positive note on Friday. Asian equity markets (apart from Japan) are in the red this morning on the back of China and the uncertain political situation in Italy.  No major economic data due today. Focus on the Eurogroup meeting.

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Euroryhmässä keskustelua Italiasta – EKP:n anti jäänee vaatimattomaksi * Teollisuuden luottamus yllätti USA:ssa – työllisyys jatkanee maltillisessa kasvussa * Dollarin turvasatamakysyntä ja Italian epävarmuudet painoivat EURUSD:tä

Aamukatsaus – Tapiola (pdf)


Eurozone macro orthodoxy: Options for the coming
Despite recent calm in the markets, the Eurozone crisis seems far from over. So far, responses have worked little magic. This column argues that at some point soon, Eurozone governments will be forced by voters to reverse austerity and stimulate growth. A number of policy options are available, but it is clear that pro-growth fiscal stimulus policies should take their place. Longer-term fiscal consolidation will nonetheless also be required to reduce excessive levels of public spending relative to GDP.

Greece faces bailout review, plays down public sector job lossesReuters
Officials from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund return to Athens on Sunday to assess Greece's performance under a bailout plan as the government plays down the prospect of public sector job cuts.

Euro Falls in Longest Stretch Since June on Record UnemploymentBB
Europe’s 17-nation common currency posted its longest stretch of weekly losses since June as demand slumped after Italy’s election produced a hung parliament and euro-area unemployment climbed to a record.

ECB’s Coeure Says Europe Needs to Rebalance Its Social ContractBB
European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said Europe must rebalance its social contract because the economic crisis “disproportionately affected the more vulnerable social groups.”
Italy's Grillo says he supports non-binding online vote on euroReuters
The leader of the 5-Star Movement has said he wants an online vote on Italy's membership of the euro, in an interview with a German magazine published on Sunday.

Euro Leaders Demand Austerity as Italy Moves Closer to New VoteBB
European leaders demanded that euro members press on with budget cuts to end the debt crisis as Italy edged closer to a new election after an anti-austerity vote last week caused political deadlock.

Italy May Need New Election With No Deal on BersaniBB
Italy may hold new elections within months should Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani fail to win support in parliament to form a government after inconclusive elections.

Calling Italy’s Tune: I Pagliacci? La Forza del Destino?A Fistful of Euros
The audience is wondering what might happen in the second act–which is frantically being written in the wings. Here are some possible scenarios:

Housing: The Two BottomsCalculated Risk
(very nice graphs) Now it appears activity bottomed in 2009 through 2011 (depending on the measure) and house prices bottomed in early 2012.

The Equity 'Air-Pocket' And 5 Reasons To WorryZH
from UBS: US debt ceiling, end of QE, European risks, economic activity is less convincing, sentiment and valuation

What May be Good about the SequesterEconoMonitor
What we don’t know is whether these cuts to discretionary spending are what the public wants…We’re about to find out. Then, after we sort out our spending priorities, maybe we can move on to tax reform.

Everyone Loves Abe?Bruce Krasting
In a world where the vast majority of people don’t like their appointed leaders, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stands out as an exception. It seems that everyone loves this guy.

FX Comment: say no more, DraghiNordea
So much of a fuss about Italy…Limited and isolated reaction so far proves that you can no longer impress the Markets with the euro area crisis.

Kuukausipalkat nousivat keskimäärin vajaat kolme prosenttiaEK