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Wednesday, March 20

20th Mar - US Close: Europe, Worried

The euro project is doubted widely now. No surprise, given the macro, the plans and the handling of the bailout of Cyprus. I believe this is now the fourth year when "everything is solved" around the new year, things deteriorate slowly towards the spring...

and then by the summertime, things will not be like this:

but like this:


Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Home Sales, Philly Fed, Jobless Claims – WSJ
US: Stocks Close Below Open (and FOMC) As Market Fades After-Hours – ZH
Morning Briefing (Asia) – BNY Mellon

Plunderball – The new Euro banking gameGolem XIV
Back in December 2012 the FDIC and he BoE published a joint paper outlining their new approach for how to resolve any future collapse of one of the Too-Big-To-Fail banks: “deposit guarantee schemes may be required to contribute to the recapitalization of the firm…”

A very clear explanation of why the euro zone keeps explodingWonkblog / WP
Lachman: But they don’t have their own central banks to pump up the money supply and offset austerity and nor can they depreciate currencies. The reason you’re seeing these crises recurring is they’re trying a recipe that can’t work. And so the economies just keep weakening.

The Future of the Euro: Lessons from HistoryBrad DeLong

Future of the Euro: Lessons from HistoryEurofuture2013
A Conference at UC Berkeley April 15-16, 2013

Is The Euro a Currency or a Prison?WSJ
Wearing the disguise of austerity, the single currency has emerged as the gatekeeper of what is fast becoming a debtors' prison.

EMU = not Enough Monetary UnionMarc to Market
It has been widely recognized that a critical challenge Europe faces is a monetary union without fiscal union. Yet the Cyprus crisis demonstrates that monetary union is not complete. 

European Public Debt Swings WildlyPIIE
A proposition widely shared among economists is that it is very difficult for western democracies to change their levels of public debt relative to GDP. But that view is not correct. Eurostat statistics on public debt as a share of GDP of 27 current EU members in the 1995–2011 time frame show remarkably big swings in individual countries, while the average level has varied little.

Yield Forecast Update: Short-term uncertainty - long-term recoveryDanske Bank (pdf)