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Friday, March 8

8th Mar - Weekender: Best of the Week

Best picks from my posts, since the previous ‘Best of’.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Here comes ... the German Anti-Euro PartyOpen Europe
The new party will launch in April under the name  "Alternative for Germany". The party appears to be an offspring of "Wahlalternative 2013" (Election Alternative 2013) - a group consisting mostly of academics but also including Hans-Olaf Henkel, the well-known and outspoken former head of Germany's employers federation BDI.

Time to wake up to reality and deal with the EUR rationallyTradingFloor
Lars Seier Christensen , co-founder & CEO / Saxo Bank: The euro will ultimately have to go and all the money currently wasted on extend-and-pretend deals would be better used on an organised, well-structured and carefully planned elimination of the currency.

Europe's economic fractures widen in FebruaryReuters
France, Spain and Italy dragged the euro zone into a deeper downturn in February, according to business surveys that showed the chasm between these countries and prosperous Germany widening yet again.

European Crisis Over? Not So FastZH

Eurozone Downturn Accelerates Despite German Growth Mish’s
Disastrous Predictions and Predictable DisastersKrugman / NYT
As Jonathan Portes points out, it is now more than two years since Olli Rehn declared that Europe’s recovery in the real economy has taken hold and is becoming self-sustaining.

The sad record of fiscal austerityFT
Martin Wolf: The ECB could have prevented the panic. Tens of millions are now suffering unnecessarily

Understanding Europe's "Austrian" SolutionZH
UBS' Larry Hatheway: The Merkel-Draghi wager: Will it pay off?

Did OMTs Turn the ECB Into a Real Central Bank?WSJ
There is a tide in the affairs of central banking which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune, as Shakespeare almost said

Special: ECB WatchMoreLiver’s

ECB afterthoughts: Draghi’s bad cop dayTradingFloor
Juhani Huopainen: The ECB did nothing and promised nothing, and said everyone already knows how the OMT programme operates. Given the terrible macro picture, this was just bad cop to Italy and good cop to Germany.

Calling Italy’s Tune: I Pagliacci? La Forza del Destino?A Fistful of Euros
The audience is wondering what might happen in the second act–which is frantically being written in the wings. Here are some possible scenarios:

Analysis: EU needs "who lost Italy" debate on austerityReuters
European policymakers should be asking themselves "who lost Italy" after a grassroots revolt against austerity, unemployment and the political elite caused an electoral earthquake in the euro zone's number three economy.

What is Italy Saying?Project Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz: The outcome of the Italian elections should send a clear message to Europe’s leaders: the austerity policies that they have pursued are being rejected by voters. Indeed, it will take a decade or more to recover the losses that austerity has wrought.

Draghi and ItalyMarc to Market
A key issue that will be addressed this week is how will the ECB respond to the electoral outcome of Italy.

Euro zone to bail out Cyprus - no details on how Reuters
Euro zone finance ministers pledged on Monday to agree a bailout for Cyprus by the end of March, but details of how the rescue will be financed are yet to be sorted out.

Ireland and Portugal set for debt deferraleuobserver
Ireland and Portugal are to be given more time to repay their emergency loans with both countries seen as good pupils in following the imposed austerity programme.

Fifty Trades of Grey The Big Picture
JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest walks us through the changes in his attitude toward the Fed, from the heady days of early 2009

Having toilet-papered a tree, students move on to trash ABS marketalphaville / FT
Student loan balances have surpassed credit card use and are still growing…overall delinquencies are on the rise for all age groups.

Damn straight I’m a college grad! Paper or plastic?alphaville / FT

Fed Balance Sheet RisksMacroMania

'How To (Maybe) End Too Big To Fail'Economist’s View

Booms and Systemic Banking CrisesEconomist’s View
Banking crises are credit booms gone wrong.

What Is the Difference between Investing and Speculation?CFA Institute

Fantasy central bankingalphaville / FT
The first round of this JP Morgan designed card-game saw Draghi shot down by King when “Size of Reaction Function Change” came up and Draghi scored really quite low.

An Infinite Amount of MoneyJohn Mauldin / The Big Picture
The three major blocs of the developed world are careening toward a debt-fueled denouement that will play out over years rather than in a single moment. And contrary to some opinion, there is no certain ending. There are multiple paths still available to Europe and especially the US, though admittedly none of them are bright and carefree. There are very few paths available to Japan, as they have skipped too far down the yellow brick road of debt.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): The month aheadBNY Mellon
  It’s time to update our risk calendar through until the end of March

Warren Buffett’s 2012 Annual Shareholder LetterPragCap

Warren Buffett to American CEOs and Investors: Man UpThe Reformed Broker

Comments on the Berkshire Hathaway Annual LetterThe Aleph Blog

Charlie Munger: The Psychology of Human MisjudgementThe Big Picture
Audio of the often referred to speech by Charlie Munger on the psychology of human misjudgement given to an audience at Harvard University circa Jun 1995. Mr. Munger speaks about the framework for decision making and the factors contributing to misjudgements. c. Jun 1, 1995

Ray Dalio went into this year even more bullish than we thoughtReuters
But after taking my own recent look at Bridgewater’s year-end investor note–book is probably a better description for the 300-page plus bound treatise–you realize that bullish just doesn’t describe Bridgewater’s stance going in 2013.

Komissaarin uudet vaatteet – onko niitä?Jan Hurri / TalSa
EU-komissio on omilla toimillaan myöntänyt talouspolitiikkansa virheitä ja haittavaikutuksia. Silti talouskomissaari Olli Rehnin mielestä virheistä ei sovi keskustella julkisesti, ettei "luottamus" vain vaarannu. Sadussa keisari ylpeili uusilla vaatteillaan vaikka oli kelteisillään – minkälaista kangasta ovatkaan komissaarin uudet vaatteet?

Silmät kiinni – pian me pelastamme rahanpesijöitäJan Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjät ovat luvanneet Kyprokselle apurahaa velkojen maksuun ja pankkitukeen, kunhan maailman tunnetuimpiin kuuluvalta veronkiertosaarelta ei lähiviikkoina löydy tuoreita jälkiä rahanpesusta. Komission kanta on selvä: Kypros-riski kuuluu ennemmin euromaiden veronmaksajille kuin kansainvälisille rahanpesijöille.

Timo Soinin lausunto ihmetyttää – Soini myöntää muutoksen: ”Ei Suomi voi yksin lähteä”US

Soini, PTT:n tutkimus ja eurointoilijoiden todellisuusToimi Kankaanniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Kuka ajoi PTT:n miinaan?Henri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Saariselän salakokous keskustelee EU:n tulevaisuudestaKU
Joukko Euroopan maiden ministereitä keskustelee Euroopan tulevaisuudesta Inarin Saariselällä 22.–24. maaliskuuta.

Kypros - periaatteiden hautuumaaJuhani Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro

Vanha laulu, samanlaisetJuhani Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro

Näin pöllit 300 miljoonaaMoreLiver's