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Monday, March 25

25th Mar - EU Open: Cyprus done

The deal on Cyprus is done: see my massive linkfest for the latest updates. Otherwise, it will be a dull week (see the Weekly Support for previews): Fed speakers, US durable good, EU unemployment and M3 money supply. Heavy stuff not until next week (US payrolls and ECB meeting).

EDIT: Added this chart. Buy the rumor, sell the news?

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers to Watch: IT cons. confidence, US CFNAI, US Dallas Fed TradingFloor
Consumer confidence for Italy is likely to retreat again in today's release. Meanwhile, upbeat economic news for the US is expected via the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Index.

Market Preview: Cyprus clinches aid deal; Bernanke speech eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open firmer Monday after Cyprus reached a bailout deal with its international lenders. Meanwhile, Fitch has placed the UK's AAA credit rating on credit watch negative. Today, Bernanke's speech is likely to be eyed.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)

Cyprus bailout agreement of EUR 10bn has been reached. Deposits below EU guarantee of EUR

100,000 are spared but the deal creates dangerous precedent for future bail-out negotiations
Relief rally in financial markets on the back of the bailout deal. No important data releases scheduled today, Fed’s Ben Bernanke and BoE’s Mervyn King speak in London

Aamukatsaus Nordea (pdf)
Toinen kerta toden sanoo Kyproksella? * Saksan IFO-indeksi kertoo yhä kasvun piristymisestä * Euroopan itälaidalla keskuspankit päättävät rahapolitiikasta tällä viikolla

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)

Kyproksen pelastuspaketista sopu viime yönä, yleinen talletusvero muuttui pankkien uudelleenjärjestelyksi ja pankkikohtaisiksi talletustappioiksi. Euroalueen taloustilanteeseen takapakkia, kun Saksan perjantainen IFO -indeksi myös pettymys. Metso (Tapiola Pankin TOP-5 osake) hallitus on päättänyt yhtiön jakautumisen selvittämisestä. Arvioimme pitkään spekuloidun jakautumisen vahvistavan kurssia. Osinkoja irti osakkeestaan tänään: Talentum EUR 0.03, Pohjola EUR 0.46. Osakefutuurit reilusti plussalla, ennakoiden nousuavausta pörssiin.



Eurozone: looking for
What happens after the crisis ends? This column estimates the long-term effects of the current cyclical downturn on Eurozone economies. In the absence of any real impetus for bold reform, estimates show that the damage will indeed be long lasting, permanently impairing growth for an ageing population that requires higher growth capacity more than ever before.

Move over, Cyprus. Slovenia is the new tiny country you should worry aboutWonkblog / WP
The small former Yugoslav—wedged between Italy, Austria, Hungary and Croatia and best known for its exceptional skiers and Slavoj Žižek—had a pretty bad week, with long-term bond yields spiking to 5.4 percent Friday morning amid fears that the country would need a bailout. That’s not crisis-level — Cyprus’ yields are around 7 percent, for comparison — but it’s certainly in the “Danger Zone.”

El Pais Retracts Article Alleging "Merkel, Like Hitler, Has Declared War On Europe"ZH

European Leaders in Lapland Signal Confidence in Cyprus TalksBB

Housing Starts and the Unemployment RateCalculated Risk

An uncomfortable bullHumble Student

In spite of being a horrible standalone investment, treasuries remain an effective portfolio hedgeSober Look