The Cyprus post has been updated. It looks like saving
the banks via financial repression and ‘deposit levies’ i.e. confiscating
deposits is becoming a major issue, and I will create a dedicated post for that…
Näyttää siltä, että kevään ykkösuutinen on pankkien pelastelu tallettajien varojen pöllimisellä. Väsäilen lähipäivinä Kyrpos-postia vastaavan "Levyathan"-postauksen, jota päivittelen tilanteen kehittyessä. Ja sitten Kypros. Ttarina alkaa osoittaa sammumisen merkkejä. 20%-bkt-rommaus, isompi kuin Suomessa, on edessä. Kannattaisi lähteä eurosta, mutta tuskin tajuavat. Saa nähdä - ehkä toi talletusten karkaaminen vetää tuonkin paskasaaren taas keskipisteeksi. Kukaan ei edes huomaa jonkun FED:n ukon höpinöitä, kun kaikki seuraa Eurooppaa.
Tulee Merkelille hauskat vaalit.
Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
Special: Bailout of Cyprus (updated)
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
NEW: Daily Interest Rate Monitor – Global
Macro Monitor
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville
/ FT
Tomorrow’s Tape: Pending Home Sales, Four Fed Speakers – WSJ
Europe: Bank Bonds Plunge To 5-Month Lows – ZH
US: Another Dow All-Time High But Bonds/Credit/Banks Ain't Buying It – ZH
EUROPE
Dishonest Data, the Draghi Edition – Econospeak
Germany has long repressed wages below productivity growth, with drastic
effects on inequality as well as price-cutting.
In the distorted world of these statistics, “reform” means taking
measures that will reduce labor’s share of the pie, as it has in Germany.
In the past couple
weeks, there have been signals that change is coming to the forecasting and
monetary policy process of the Bank of England—incremental change, but change
nonetheless.
An Age-Old Problem – WSJ
As Europe grapples with its fiscal and banking crises,
it's worth remembering that it faces what may be an even greater challenge: a
rapidly aging population.
Former French
president Giscard d'Estaing has said the eurozone should stop enlarging after Poland joins.
The EU needs to speak the public's language,
not austerity-speak – euobserver
Together with a
long-standing attachment to politics by summit, the EU is fond of acronyms. How
else can you describe a world inhabited by QMV, Coreper and co-decision, not to
mention trialogues, comitology and the Luxembourg compromise?
THE DIJSSELBLOEM AFFAIR
Banks are back in focus... and that's bad news – TradingFloor
Steen Jakobsen: There is ample reason
to believe that deposits will flow from Italian, Spanish and Portugese banks as
the whole concept of a bail-in of all asset classes will leave investors no
option but to go for more safe havens. That said, I think it will matter little
as we will soon see a full European version that mirrors the Swedish Bank
model, which was financed by levies on assets in all of Europe (or Euro zone).
Depositing some calm, at least for the little
guys – alphaville
/ FT
Chart from HSBC
showing how many depositors fall within the bracket of the €100k guarantee
mandated by EU law. Chart from JP Morgan’s F&L team shows percentages of
insured and uninsured deposits in the eurozone (click to enlarge). Essentially,
the share of large or uninsured deposits is likely to be close to half of total
deposits.
The Cypriot banking crisis shows that Europeans
have yet to work out the answer to the question, ‘who pays?’ – europp
/ LSE
The crisis is a direct
result of an over-extended banking system: something that also affects other
Eurozone members. The solution, to make bank depositors pay, could undermine
confidence in the Eurozone’s banking system.
Fade out the tax
payer. Fade in the investor. Part two of the euro-zone debt crisis has just
begun. And another period of euro uncertainty has probably started. It all has to
do with Cyprus
Cyprus didn’t prick the Eurozone bailout bubble, the notion that bank
investors who took enormous risks to gain financial rewards would always be
made whole by taxpayers. That bubble had already been pricked in February. But
it was the first time that the international bailout cabal, the Troika, stuck
its needle into it—while Germany quietly bailed out all investors in one of its
own rotten banks.
Deal with failed banks the Dutch way: rely on
the ECB, deposit insurance, and the public’s faith in the government – alphaville
/ FT
With the turn of
events in Cyprus, it seems particularly relevant to note how in the case of SNS
the Dutch government reaped the benefits of extraordinary support from the ECB,
deposit insurance, and the public’s belief that the state will back the banks.
PIIGS
Bank of Spain sees 1.5
percent contraction in 2013 * Government seen revising down own forecast of
-0.5 percent * Deficit seen at 5.9 percent of GDP in 2014
Irish Government Faces Voters as Austerity
Bites – WSJ
Ireland’s government
is becoming used to favorable reviews from its bailout lenders and bond
investors, but Wednesday faces what is likely to be a tougher audience when its
two coalition partners contest a by-election that will be a key test of its
ability to hold on to power.
UNITED STATES
MACRO NUMBERS
Real House Prices,
Price-to-Rent Ratio, City Prices relative to 2000 – Calculated
Risk
A few comments on New
Home Sales – Calculated
Risk
Durable Goods Orders
Still Tracking Equities Closely – PragCap
Durable Goods Orders
Rebound In February – Capital
Spectator
ASIA
Why ‘Shinzo Abe: The Sequel’ beats the original – The
World / FT
OTHER
361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing – The
Reformed Broker
Twilight of Justice – Golem XIV
This isn’t about lack
of proof or the complexities of financial crimes or showing who knew or proving
actual intent. It is not about proof or criminality at all. It is about there
being a new category of financial entity
which our law makers and prosecutors have decided for us, is above the law.
They are called G-SIFIs, Globally,
Systemically Important Financial Institutions or G-SIBs, Globally Systemically
Important Banks.
IN FINNISH
Rakastaa,
ei rakasta, rakastaa, ei rakasta... – Henri
Myllyniemi / piksu
Fiksut
ihmiset, hölmö asetelma – Hannu
Visti
Ekonomisti
pitää euroa suurena virheenä – ”Euro tappaa Euroopan” –
Uusi
Suomi