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Monday, March 11

11th Mar - EU Open: RIP 1966-2013

My guess for the week's main events: Euromeeting, discussing Cyprus, even though it is not the supposed main topic. On Friday, the first data for March, as we get the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Next week FOMC, so the current week could be dull.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

3 Numbers to Watch: DE exports, FR ind. production, US job trendsTradingFloor
The market will be keen on learning how Germany’s exports fared in January. Later, analysts are looking for an uptick in industrial production for France, and the US employment trends index will provide a deeper read on the labour market trend.

Market Preview: Fitch downgrades Italy; German trade data eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open marginally higher Monday. Fitch Ratings lowered its credit rating on Italy by one notch late Friday. In today's session, markets will keep an eye on German trade data for further cues.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
Decent US job report pushes equity markets higher. Next test for markets is this week’s US retail sales. Chinese data disappoint, inflation higher. Weaker JPY lifts Japanese stocks despite weak machine orders. Very thin calendar today. Norway releases inflation data.

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Kiinan alkuvuoden talousdata pettymys – kasvu yltää silti tavoitteeseen * USA:ssa rivakkaa työllisyyskasvua – seuraako vähittäismyynti perässä? * Dollari vahvistui ja korot nousivat USA:n vahvan työllisyysdatan myötä

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
USA:n perjantain työmarkkinaraportti oli vahva, mutta viikonlopun data Kiinasta pehmeää.
Osakefutuurit lievästi miinuksella, ennakoiden laskuavausta pörssiin. Suomalaiset kiinteistösijoitusyhtiöt tarkastelussa: Technopolis tuottaa sitoutuneelle pääomalle jopa yli 5% tuottopreemion. Talvivaaralta merkintäoikeusosakeanti: Merkintäoikeus irti osakkeesta tänään, osakkeen oikea hinta tänään noin EUR 0,275. Merkintäoikeuksien tullessa myyntiin 18.3., kova myyntipaine saattaa painaa osaketta alas.


Germany's New Anti-Euro PartySpiegel
A new German party led by prominent German economists and academics wants to do away with the euro.

The English PrisonerKrugman / NYT

The IMF on the Austerity TrapKrugman / NYT

Italy: The Dragon and the CricketMarc to Market
The ECB's Outright Market Transaction scheme is not relevant in the current circumstances for Italy.  Recall that the pre-conditions require a programmatic agreement with the EU.  Italy is far from that.  By some reckoning, Spain is still closer, though Spanish bonds have benefited from the political uncertainty in Italy.

FRBNY Swap Update ZH

Employment GraphsCalculated Risk
Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes

Jobs report: how America has changed, and continues to changeFabius Maximus

How is Abenomics doing?noahpinion

China’s sluggish, narrow-based recoveryalphaville / FT
A big stack of official Chinese economic data was released over the weekend and it paints a somewhat mixed picture of the country in 2013.

China: Beyond The MiracleZH
by Larry Kantor, Head of Research, Barclays

Cyber-attackers penetrate Reserve Bank networksFinancial Review
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s computer networks have been repeatedly and successfully hacked in a series of cyber-attacks to infiltrate sensitive internal information, including by ­Chinese-developed malicious software.

The Impossible Rally Turns FourThe Reformed Broker

"What Looks Like A Rally May Just Be The Elites Passing Money Among Themselves"ZH
Authored by Chrstopher Caldwell, originally posted at The FT

Portfolio Update: Currency OptionsShort Side of the Long
Global currencies under pressure, Funds hold large bearish bets on the Loonie, Risk On or Risk Off? Depends on the asset! Global bull market confirmations are thinning out,