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Sunday, March 31

31st Mar - Most read Q1/2013

Most popular posts from the first quarter.

31st Mar - Credit Guest: Gunfight at the O.K Corralito

This week’s guest post from Macronomics discusses the unintended consequences of the bailin of Cyprus: how will depositors react? Where will they carry their funds? What does this mean to prices? After naked long sovereign CDS bans, are there any instruments that even could react? All in an entertaining style drawing lessons from famous fights (think of a complex Mexican stand-off) and game theory.

Saturday, March 30

30th Mar - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. Due to the holidays this post is missing a lot of stuff, but I’ll fill in later.

30th Mar - Weekender: The Linkfest

This weekend's linkfest is a smart bomb of European misery. Weekly preview&review-post 'Weekly Support coming up next.

Wednesday, March 27

27th Mar - US Close: European Disaster

Credit markets in Europe go back into crisis mode: German bond yields collapse, Southern Europe's surge. Switzerland is not the safe haven anymore. Cyprus to open its banks tomorrow, while seasonals and macro are not good for the risk assets. ECB coming up next week, and probably will not do anything. Terrible stuff. Read the two ones marked red.

27th Mar - US Open: European Sell-off

Cyprus open for biz on Thursday?

27th Mar - EU Open: Slowdown, Easter bunny & Finnish

Markets are getting into a holiday mood: end of the month, long weekend and waiting for clarification on Cyprus.

Tuesday, March 26

26th Mar - US Close: Europe's Levyathan

The Cyprus post has been updated. It looks like saving the banks via financial repression and ‘deposit levies’ i.e. confiscating deposits is becoming a major issue, and I will create a dedicated post for that…

Näyttää siltä, että kevään ykkösuutinen on pankkien pelastelu tallettajien varojen pöllimisellä. Väsäilen lähipäivinä Kyrpos-postia vastaavan "Levyathan"-postauksen, jota päivittelen tilanteen kehittyessä. Ja sitten Kypros. Ttarina alkaa osoittaa sammumisen merkkejä. 20%-bkt-rommaus, isompi kuin Suomessa, on edessä. Kannattaisi lähteä eurosta, mutta tuskin tajuavat. Saa nähdä - ehkä toi talletusten karkaaminen vetää tuonkin paskasaaren taas keskipisteeksi. Kukaan ei edes huomaa jonkun FED:n ukon höpinöitä, kun kaikki seuraa Eurooppaa.

Tulee Merkelille hauskat vaalit.

26th Mar - US Open: The Dijsselbloem Affair

Joke / not true: 
In a stunning victory for the small country, the finance minister of Finland Mrs. Jutta Urpilainen has been named as the new head of the Eurogroup.
Many commentators believe that the choice will work in favor of the federalists ahead of the all-important European Parliament election in 2015, as she is head of the Social Democratic Party of Finland (pro people), a woman (always helps) and comes from a neutral creditor country officially opposing federalisation, but in reality agreeing with everything Germany decides to throw at it.
Under Urpilainen's term, the fiscal situation of the Republic of Finland has deteriorated hand-in-hand with the euro crisis, while simultaneously the balance sheet items related to rescue measures and thus the nation's liabilities have increased more than after the WWII or during the financial crisis of the early nineties.
With that track record, the euro and the European Union will surely become the success stories they are often said to be.

26th Mar - View Update

26th Mar - EU Open

Monday, March 25

25th Mar - US Close: Cyprus Deal Sours

25th Mar - EURUSD Update

Time to exit shorts... and go long.

25th Mar - US Open

This is going to be a dull week - especially with the holidays approaching... Next week we have the ECB meeting and US payrolls. I "sense a disturbance in the force": market wisdom says buy the rumor, sell the fact. Not just because markets discount the news before the event, but also because the "news" tends to disappoint. The Cyprus has not been solved, and new trouble is coming toward us already.

25th Mar - EU Open: Cyprus done

The deal on Cyprus is done: see my massive linkfest for the latest updates. Otherwise, it will be a dull week (see the Weekly Support for previews): Fed speakers, US durable good, EU unemployment and M3 money supply. Heavy stuff not until next week (US payrolls and ECB meeting).

Sunday, March 24

24th Mar - Weekender: Europe & Markets

Note that Cyprus-related articles are collected in the Special. I haven't collected much of Econ & Off-Topic links - I know the posts are popular, but there are limits to my time.

24th Mar - Credit Guest: The Doubt in the Shadow

Macronomics is back with an extensive credit piece:

24th Mar - Weekender: Best of the Week

Last week's 'Best of' here.

Saturday, March 23

23rd Mar - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Friday, March 22

22nd Mar - US Open

Let’s see if this will be “a weekend to remember”… The Special: Bailout of Cyprus has been updated.

Quote of the Day: Five Minute Macro ‏@5_min_macro: “Cyprus is the equity tranche of Greece.”

22nd Mar - EU Open

So, will Cyprus be solved during the weekend? If yes, you should be risk-on around Friday's close. If no, you'd better pray - though risk-off could help.

Thursday, March 21

21st Mar - US Close: Cyprus on the Edge

Quote of the Day, 18/01/2008, Trichet: “For a small, open economy like Cyprus, Euro adoption provides protection from international financial turmoil.”

21st Mar - Vieraskynä "tyhmyri": Mistä eurokriisi johtuu

Tänään vieraskynänä "Tyhmyri": 
Mistä Euroalueen kriisi johtuu – epämääräisiä mutinoita

21st Mar - US Open: Terrible Euro-PMIs

Terrible PMI-numbers from Europe today. Tomorrow the IFO index from Germany. The Cyprus-post has been updated.

21st Mar - EU Open: PMI Day

It's the Markit Flash PMI day today - tomorrow German IFO.

France 07:58 GMT
Germany 08:28 GMT
Europe 09:00 GMT
US 13:00 GMT

Wednesday, March 20

20th Mar - US Close: Europe, Worried

The euro project is doubted widely now. No surprise, given the macro, the plans and the handling of the bailout of Cyprus. I believe this is now the fourth year when "everything is solved" around the new year, things deteriorate slowly towards the spring...

20th Mar - US Open

The Cyprus-post has been updated, again. Note my Fed-special for today’s main event.

20th Mar - Special: Fed Watch

Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting. With slow/moderate growth, eurocrisis back at "orange level" and the recent worries over  the Fed's balance sheet expansion, the hawks  are expected to be muted.

The FOMC decided at an earlier date to prepare studies on the effectiveness and possible unintended side-effects of the asset purchase programs, and Bernanke will probably be questioned on them during the press conference. However, I think the real meat will be hidden in the minutes of the meeting - to be released at an later date.

20th Mar - EU Open

The Cyprus-post has been updated, again.

Tuesday, March 19

19th Mar - US Close

The Cyprus-post has been updated, again. FOMC press tomorrow, though Cyprus could steal the show.

19th Mar - US Open: Cyprus still, Fed Ahead

The Cyprus-piece has been updated, again. Let's not forget the FOMC!

19th Mar - EU Open


Monitor resigned - MoreLiver's Daily hopes to return to normal schedule later today.


Monday, March 18

18th Mar - US Close: Made the Hedge

An article of mine just 'made the hedge' - was featured on Zero Hedge. Wooo!

I just updated the "Cyprus Special". Next stop will be the FOMC (Tue-Wed), although the minutes from the meeting (to be released later) are probably of greater interest than the press statement on Wed.

18th Mar - US Open

The Cyprus Bailout special (just updated it) is now my most popular article ever, only second to the LTRO-linkfest - but that was featured on The Financial Times.

18th Mar - EU Open

My Special is becoming one of my most popular posts ever. I'll update it again with the latest articles next.

Saturday, March 16

16th Mar - Special: Bailout of Cyprus

Last update 14-Apr.  Links  from oldest to newest. The legendary "angry cab driver"-video is definitely not safe for work. 

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

16th Mar - Weekender: Off-Topic

Last week’s Off-Topic here.

16th Mar - Weekender: Economics & Markets

Last week’s Econ & Markets here.

16th Mar - Weekender: The World

This week's 'The World' has plenty on the bailout of Cyprus and IMF's latest assesment of the EU. Interesting compromise on Cyprus: small haircut on deposits, with bank stocks offered in return to the depositors. 

Personally I believe a simple gift of EUR 5bn of free money would have been a better choice. The lending of 10bn raises the debt/GDP, lowers the growth prospects, forces austerity and has the danger of creating a negative spiral that could turn the island into a second Greece: a continuous source of headaches and disappointment to the EU. The haircut is small and Rehn states this is a one-off. Whether depositors in e.g. Spain believe this remains to be seen. If not, the bank jog could start again. That could push Spain to eventually apply  for the ECB's OMT-program, and perhaps that is what the Brussels and ECB actually want.

16th Mar - Weekender: Weekly Support

The last week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here.

Friday, March 15

15th Mar - US Open

15th Mar - Weekender: Best of the Week

Best picks from my posts, since the previous Best of.

15th Mar - EU Open

Cyprus decision expected in the US hours. Day will be dominated by the US data, ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.

Wednesday, March 13

13th Mar - US Close

We had a relatively good Feb Retail Sales from US, markets are dull. Booring... Cyprus talk on Friday, FED next week.

13th Mar - US Open

13th Mar - EU Open

Monday, March 11

11th Mar - US Close

11th Mar - US Open: Dull

11th Mar - EU Open: RIP 1966-2013

My guess for the week's main events: Euromeeting, discussing Cyprus, even though it is not the supposed main topic. On Friday, the first data for March, as we get the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Next week FOMC, so the current week could be dull.

Sunday, March 10

10th Mar - Credit Guest: The Yield Skeksis

Macronomics is back with another long form guest post.

Saturday, March 9

9th Mar - Weekender: Off-Topic

Last week's Off-Topic here

9th Mar - Weekender: Econ & Markets

Last week’s Econ & Markets here.

9th Mar - Weekender: The World

Europe, Asia and US articles from the ending week.

9th Mar - Weekender: Weekly Support

The last week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here.

Thursday, March 7

7th March - US Open

Note the ECB post below.

7th Mar - Special: ECB Watch

I will add content and comments to this post during and after today’s press. Last update: 23:30 GMT 7-March

7th Mar - EU Open: ECB, BOE Today

Tuesday, March 5

5th Mar - US Close

Interesting! Italy's Five Star-party hires Stiglitz to write their economic program. Something that the EU commission should have thought about. Add to that the 5* has stated it will not accept a technocratic government, and it could very well be that Italy will end up having a sane, debt-restructuring, euro-exiting and fiscally less austere government at some point. 

Also, plenty of Finnish stuff: the antieuro True Finns have made statements that do not suggest demands for an immediate euro exit. This somehow is big news, though nothing has changed policy-wise.

5th Mar - US Open: Cyprus by end of March

5th Mar - EU Open

Saturday, March 2

2nd Mar - Weekender: Weekly Support

The last week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here.

2nd Mar - Weekender: Best of the Week

Best picks from my posts since the previous 'Best of'.

2nd Mar - Comic Relief: Austrian Economics

Friday, March 1

1st Mar - US Open: Go Euroskeptics!

1st Mar - EU Open

Deadline. MS Word. A journalist without words, without charts. Alone. Deep undercover. Letter by letter, words begin to take form. A sentence is finished. Sentences turn into paragraphs. Ideas become expressed. The text finishes in time, just like it always has. The Man will be happy for now, but its hunger is insatiable, and fresh 500-word minimums must be fed to it, so that the journalist can eat.