Most popular posts from the first quarter.
Sunday, March 31
This week’s guest post from Macronomics discusses the unintended consequences of the bailin of Cyprus: how will depositors react? Where will they carry their funds? What does this mean to prices? After naked long sovereign CDS bans, are there any instruments that even could react? All in an entertaining style drawing lessons from famous fights (think of a complex Mexican stand-off) and game theory.
Saturday, March 30
This weekend's linkfest is a smart bomb of European misery. Weekly preview&review-post 'Weekly Support coming up next.
Wednesday, March 27
Credit markets in Europe go back into crisis mode: German bond yields collapse, Southern Europe's surge. Switzerland is not the safe haven anymore. Cyprus to open its banks tomorrow, while seasonals and macro are not good for the risk assets. ECB coming up next week, and probably will not do anything. Terrible stuff. Read the two ones marked red.
Cyprus open for biz on Thursday?
Markets are getting into a holiday mood: end of the month, long weekend and waiting for clarification on Cyprus.
Tuesday, March 26
The Cyprus post has been updated. It looks like saving the banks via financial repression and ‘deposit levies’ i.e. confiscating deposits is becoming a major issue, and I will create a dedicated post for that…
Näyttää siltä, että kevään ykkösuutinen on pankkien pelastelu tallettajien varojen pöllimisellä. Väsäilen lähipäivinä Kyrpos-postia vastaavan "Levyathan"-postauksen, jota päivittelen tilanteen kehittyessä. Ja sitten Kypros. Ttarina alkaa osoittaa sammumisen merkkejä. 20%-bkt-rommaus, isompi kuin Suomessa, on edessä. Kannattaisi lähteä eurosta, mutta tuskin tajuavat. Saa nähdä - ehkä toi talletusten karkaaminen vetää tuonkin paskasaaren taas keskipisteeksi. Kukaan ei edes huomaa jonkun FED:n ukon höpinöitä, kun kaikki seuraa Eurooppaa.
Tulee Merkelille hauskat vaalit.
Joke / not true:
In a stunning victory for the small country, the finance minister of Finland Mrs. Jutta Urpilainen has been named as the new head of the Eurogroup.
Many commentators believe that the choice will work in favor of the federalists ahead of the all-important European Parliament election in 2015, as she is head of the Social Democratic Party of Finland (pro people), a woman (always helps) and comes from a neutral creditor country officially opposing federalisation, but in reality agreeing with everything Germany decides to throw at it.
Under Urpilainen's term, the fiscal situation of the Republic of Finland has deteriorated hand-in-hand with the euro crisis, while simultaneously the balance sheet items related to rescue measures and thus the nation's liabilities have increased more than after the WWII or during the financial crisis of the early nineties.
With that track record, the euro and the European Union will surely become the success stories they are often said to be.
Monday, March 25
This is going to be a dull week - especially with the holidays approaching... Next week we have the ECB meeting and US payrolls. I "sense a disturbance in the force": market wisdom says buy the rumor, sell the fact. Not just because markets discount the news before the event, but also because the "news" tends to disappoint. The Cyprus has not been solved, and new trouble is coming toward us already.
The deal on Cyprus is done: see my massive linkfest for the latest updates. Otherwise, it will be a dull week (see the Weekly Support for previews): Fed speakers, US durable good, EU unemployment and M3 money supply. Heavy stuff not until next week (US payrolls and ECB meeting).
Sunday, March 24
Saturday, March 23
Friday, March 22
So, will Cyprus be solved during the weekend? If yes, you should be risk-on around Friday's close. If no, you'd better pray - though risk-off could help.
Thursday, March 21
Quote of the Day, 18/01/2008, Trichet: “For a small, open economy like Cyprus, Euro adoption provides protection from international financial turmoil.”
Tänään vieraskynänä "Tyhmyri":
Mistä Euroalueen kriisi johtuu – epämääräisiä mutinoita
Terrible PMI-numbers from Europe today. Tomorrow the IFO index from Germany. The Cyprus-post has been updated.
It's the Markit Flash PMI day today - tomorrow German IFO.
France 07:58 GMT
Germany 08:28 GMT
Europe 09:00 GMT
US 13:00 GMT
Wednesday, March 20
The euro project is doubted widely now. No surprise, given the macro, the plans and the handling of the bailout of Cyprus. I believe this is now the fourth year when "everything is solved" around the new year, things deteriorate slowly towards the spring...
Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting. With slow/moderate growth, eurocrisis back at "orange level" and the recent worries over the Fed's balance sheet expansion, the hawks are expected to be muted.
The FOMC decided at an earlier date to prepare studies on the effectiveness and possible unintended side-effects of the asset purchase programs, and Bernanke will probably be questioned on them during the press conference. However, I think the real meat will be hidden in the minutes of the meeting - to be released at an later date.
Tuesday, March 19
The Cyprus-piece has been updated, again. Let's not forget the FOMC!
Monitor resigned - MoreLiver's Daily hopes to return to normal schedule later today.
Monday, March 18
An article of mine just 'made the hedge' - was featured on Zero Hedge. Wooo!
I just updated the "Cyprus Special". Next stop will be the FOMC (Tue-Wed), although the minutes from the meeting (to be released later) are probably of greater interest than the press statement on Wed.
The Cyprus Bailout special (just updated it) is now my most popular article ever, only second to the LTRO-linkfest - but that was featured on The Financial Times.
My Special is becoming one of my most popular posts ever. I'll update it again with the latest articles next.
Saturday, March 16
This week's 'The World' has plenty on the bailout of Cyprus and IMF's latest assesment of the EU. Interesting compromise on Cyprus: small haircut on deposits, with bank stocks offered in return to the depositors.
Personally I believe a simple gift of EUR 5bn of free money would have been a better choice. The lending of 10bn raises the debt/GDP, lowers the growth prospects, forces austerity and has the danger of creating a negative spiral that could turn the island into a second Greece: a continuous source of headaches and disappointment to the EU. The haircut is small and Rehn states this is a one-off. Whether depositors in e.g. Spain believe this remains to be seen. If not, the bank jog could start again. That could push Spain to eventually apply for the ECB's OMT-program, and perhaps that is what the Brussels and ECB actually want.
Friday, March 15
Thursday, March 14
Wednesday, March 13
Tuesday, March 12
Monday, March 11
My guess for the week's main events: Euromeeting, discussing Cyprus, even though it is not the supposed main topic. On Friday, the first data for March, as we get the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Next week FOMC, so the current week could be dull.
Sunday, March 10
Saturday, March 9
Europe, Asia and US articles from the ending week.
Friday, March 8
Thursday, March 7
Wednesday, March 6
Tuesday, March 5
Interesting! Italy's Five Star-party hires Stiglitz to write their economic program. Something that the EU commission should have thought about. Add to that the 5* has stated it will not accept a technocratic government, and it could very well be that Italy will end up having a sane, debt-restructuring, euro-exiting and fiscally less austere government at some point.
Also, plenty of Finnish stuff: the antieuro True Finns have made statements that do not suggest demands for an immediate euro exit. This somehow is big news, though nothing has changed policy-wise.
Monday, March 4
Sunday, March 3
Saturday, March 2
Friday, March 1
Deadline. MS Word. A journalist without words, without charts. Alone. Deep undercover. Letter by letter, words begin to take form. A sentence is finished. Sentences turn into paragraphs. Ideas become expressed. The text finishes in time, just like it always has. The Man will be happy for now, but its hunger is insatiable, and fresh 500-word minimums must be fed to it, so that the journalist can eat.