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Monday, June 16

16th Jun - Distressed start of the week



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EUROPE
The European Parliament should return to a ‘dual mandate’ system which uses national politicians as representatives instead of directly elected MEPs – Europp / LSE

The ECB’s bank review: Kill the Zombies and heal the wounded – Bruegel
Complacency could still lead to another failed attempt to fix Europe’s banks, with severe consequences

European Commission endorses Telegraph view of the euro – The Telegraph
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: I never thought I would live to see a serving European Commissioner suggest that it was "reckless" to launch the euro without a lender-of-last resort or fiscal union to back it up.

BOE Hasn’t Cracked the Mystery of U.K. Productivity Collapse – WSJ

Draghi Stock Rally Runs to Record Price-Earnings Ratio – BB

Euro area deflation monitor – Danske Bank

Euro area annual inflation down to 0.5% - Eurostat

UNITED STATES
FOMC Preview: More Tapering – Calculated Risk

FOMC Preview – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

2014 Article IV Consultation with the United States of America Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission – IMF

IMF Slashes US Growth Expectations; Pushes Higher Minimum Wage, Removing Tax Loopholes & Fiscal Stimulus – ZH

NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 49 in June – Calculated Risk
US housing market improves in June – TradingFloor
NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Better Than Expected – Bespoke
Homebuilder Confidence Beats; Remains Negative For 5th Month – ZH

Industrial Production increased 0.6% in May – Calculated Risk
Industrial Production Beats But Autos Drop 3rd Month In A Row – ZH

ASIA
BOJ’s Bond Paralysis Seen Spreading Across Markets: Japan Credit – BB

"Liquidity Is Becoming A Serious Issue" As Japan's Bond Market Death Goes Global – ZH

Japanese Yen About To Wake Up? – The Short Side of Long
Yen has been basing for awhile now and could be ready to rally * Close to record high levels of short bets against Yen

Three Developments in China – Marc to Market

OTHER
FX Update: It’s FOMC week. Does the Fed blink? – TradingFloor

Daily central banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: What is Going Down With Term Premiums? * Fed Debating How High to Raise Rates in the Long Run * Carney’s Comments Spur Bets BOE Will Raise Rates by End of 2014 * Leaked Tapes Complicate Polish Central Bank Chief’s Position * Happy 81st Birthday, FOMC!

Daily macro – WSJ
If investors had become “complacent” – in the words of a few Federal Reserve officials – earlier this month, they now may have something quite serious to snap them out of their nonchalance. The conflict in Iraq, which appears to be deepening by the day and which on Monday prompted a selloff in Asian and European stocks and a gain in the safe-haven yen, has all the ingredients to feed through into economic and financial conditions.

Great Graphic: Federal Reserve and ECB Balance Sheets – Marc to Market
Divergence between the Federal Reserve and ECB balance sheets may be a few months away from peaking. While the euro has trended higher since July 2012, it is not obvious that it was driven by the divergent balance sheets.

Yield Forecast Update – Danske Bank
Full impact of ECB easing not yet seen

Quiet, though Nervous Start to Week – Marc to Market

  IRAQ
The Investment Climate and Geopolitics – Marc to Market

Events In Iraq Waking Commodities Up? – Short Side of the Long

US Orders Partial Evacuation Of Baghdad Embassy As Aircraft Carrier Arrives In Gulf – ZH

The Economics Of ISIS – Centives

How ISIS is exploiting the economics of Syria's civil war – VOX

FINNISH
Rumat luvut vahvistuivat: Vienti Venäjälle romahti – TalSa

Ulkomaalaisten toimeentulotukea kiristetään pääkaupunkiseudulla – Länsiväylä

Lausunto valtiovarainvaliokunnalle – Raha ja Talous
Lauri Holappa ja Jussi Ahokas olivat perjantaina 23.5.2014 kuultavina asiantuntijoina eduskunnan valtiovarainvaliokunnassa. Kuulemisen aiheena oli valtioneuvoston selonteko julkisen talouden suunnitelmasta vuosille 2015-2018