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EUROPE
Despite lower yields, euro-periphery is not yet
out of the woods – Bruegel
While the public debt
ratio is expected to fall, the debt trajectory remains highly vulnerable to
negative growth, primary balance and interest rate shocks.
It's hard for UK
companies to raise prices when you have disinflationary pressures and declining
labor costs across the Channel.
BOE’s Haldane Steps Up to the Wicket to Warn on
Rate Risks – WSJ
BOE Appointee Says Markets Too Sanguine on Risk – WSJ
BOE Uncertainty Spells Market Volatility – WSJ
Production in
construction up by 0.8% in euro area – Eurostat
2013 Consumption per
capita amongst Member States – Eurostat
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL
RESERVE (BEFORE)
Term premia, the Fed, and finstability, part 1 – FT
Movements in long-term
rates are explained by changes in two components: the term premium and the
expected path of short rates. And while the Fed’s asset purchases mainly
influence rates through their effects on the former, its forward guidance
language works by altering the latter.
Term premia, the Fed, and finstability, part 2 – FT
Should the Fed be
unduly concerned by the decline in term premia this year?
On the Way to the FOMC Meeting – Marc to
Market
We look for the Fed’s
statement and forecasts to recognize that its mandates are being approached…Fed
continues its “measured” tapering ($10 bln) a meeting and winding down QE3+ (no
one is calling it QE-infinity anymore), with the first rate hike likely in H2
15.
Accelerating Taper? No Better Time Than The
Present – ZH
Scotiabank's Guy
Haselmann: The most tradable and talked-about unforeseen change is likely to
come from variations made to the ‘dot plot’.
Three lessons the world can teach the Federal
Reserve – WaPo
Fed Meeting: Can the Fed Thread a Needle? – WSJ
GS FOMC Preview: "Steady As She Goes"
Or "Quasi Carney" – ZH
FEDERAL
RESERVE (AFTER)
9 reasons the Fed made a mistake today – vox
The "Dots" Chart - Then And Now – ZH
FOMC Projections and Press Conference – Calculated
Risk
Redacted Version of the June 2014 FOMC
Statement – Aleph
Fed Officials Downgrade This Year’s Growth
Outlook – WSJ
FOMC Statement: More Tapering – Calculated
Risk
Federal Reserve lowers economic forecast but
continues stimulus phaseout – WaPo
Hilsenrath's 530 Word Summary Of FOMC's
"Aggressive Tightening Plans" – ZH
Fed Says Economy Rebounding as It Trims Bond
Purchases – BB
Fed Officials Raise Forecast Target Rates for
Next 2 Years – BB
Fed cuts growth forecast, but confident in
recovery – Reuters
Tracking Fed Target Rate Projections – BB
ASIA
Market Expects Australian Interest Rates to
Stay Lower For Longer – WSJ
China May Not Be History’s Economic Growth
Champ After All, Report Says –
WSJ
The four stages of Chinese growth – Michael
Pettis
OTHER
The Big Picture: Global economy re-accelerating – Danske
Bank
Weekly Bond Update – TradingFloor
Federal Reserve to
signal policy tightening?
Paul Krugman: Does He Pass the Test? – The
New York Review of Books
Review of Timothy F.
Geithner’s Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises
Daily Central Banks – WSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Why
The Market Doubts Fed Rate Dot Plot * Will Holding Down Rates Spark Inflation
Without Helping the Long-Term Unemployed? * Five Things to Watch for at the Fed
Meeting * U.S. Consumer Prices Jump 0.4% in May * BOE Edges Toward Rate Increase
Daily Macro – WSJ
Debate going on over
the pace and extent to which the Fed might start and continue to raise rates
over the next few years... There’s still too much inconsistency in the economic
numbers, and risks from global disruptions such as the Iraq conflict point to
the need for caution and a steady hand. So, all up, don’t expect much in the
way of change from the Fed’s Open Market Committee today.
Commodities Update: Oil price stuck around
USD110/bl – Danske
Bank
FINNISH
Näin on
aina oleva – Juhani
Huopainen / US
Suomen
kustannustason karkaaminen ja taloudellinen menestys –
Tyhmyri