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Wednesday, June 18

18th Jun - FOMC over, went as expected

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Despite lower yields, euro-periphery is not yet out of the woodsBruegel
While the public debt ratio is expected to fall, the debt trajectory remains highly vulnerable to negative growth, primary balance and interest rate shocks.

Eurozone's disinflation contagion in the UKSober Look
It's hard for UK companies to raise prices when you have disinflationary pressures and declining labor costs across the Channel.

BOE’s Haldane Steps Up to the Wicket to Warn on Rate RisksWSJ

BOE Appointee Says Markets Too Sanguine on RiskWSJ

BOE Uncertainty Spells Market VolatilityWSJ

Production in construction up by 0.8% in euro area – Eurostat
2013 Consumption per capita amongst Member States – Eurostat

Term premia, the Fed, and finstability, part 1FT
Movements in long-term rates are explained by changes in two components: the term premium and the expected path of short rates. And while the Fed’s asset purchases mainly influence rates through their effects on the former, its forward guidance language works by altering the latter.

Term premia, the Fed, and finstability, part 2FT
Should the Fed be unduly concerned by the decline in term premia this year?

On the Way to the FOMC MeetingMarc to Market
We look for the Fed’s statement and forecasts to recognize that its mandates are being approached…Fed continues its “measured” tapering ($10 bln) a meeting and winding down QE3+ (no one is calling it QE-infinity anymore), with the first rate hike likely in H2 15.

Accelerating Taper? No Better Time Than The PresentZH
Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann: The most tradable and talked-about unforeseen change is likely to come from variations made to the ‘dot plot’.

Three lessons the world can teach the Federal ReserveWaPo

Fed Meeting: Can the Fed Thread a Needle?WSJ

GS FOMC Preview: "Steady As She Goes" Or "Quasi Carney"ZH

9 reasons the Fed made a mistake todayvox

The "Dots" Chart - Then And NowZH

FOMC Projections and Press ConferenceCalculated Risk

Redacted Version of the June 2014 FOMC StatementAleph

Fed Officials Downgrade This Year’s Growth OutlookWSJ

FOMC Statement: More TaperingCalculated Risk

Federal Reserve lowers economic forecast but continues stimulus phaseoutWaPo

Hilsenrath's 530 Word Summary Of FOMC's "Aggressive Tightening Plans"ZH

FOMC Sparks VIX Plunge; Stocks & Bonds Jump, USD DumpZH

Fed Says Economy Rebounding as It Trims Bond PurchasesBB

Fed Officials Raise Forecast Target Rates for Next 2 YearsBB

Fed cuts growth forecast, but confident in recoveryReuters

Tracking Fed Target Rate ProjectionsBB

Asia’s Dilemma: How to Reform When the Pressure is Off?WSJ

Market Expects Australian Interest Rates to Stay Lower For LongerWSJ

China May Not Be History’s Economic Growth Champ After All, Report SaysWSJ

The four stages of Chinese growthMichael Pettis

The Big Picture: Global economy re-acceleratingDanske Bank

Weekly Bond UpdateTradingFloor
Federal Reserve to signal policy tightening?

Paul Krugman: Does He Pass the Test?The New York Review of Books
Review of Timothy F. Geithner’s Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Why The Market Doubts Fed Rate Dot Plot * Will Holding Down Rates Spark Inflation Without Helping the Long-Term Unemployed? * Five Things to Watch for at the Fed Meeting * U.S. Consumer Prices Jump 0.4% in May * BOE Edges Toward Rate Increase

Daily MacroWSJ
Debate going on over the pace and extent to which the Fed might start and continue to raise rates over the next few years... There’s still too much inconsistency in the economic numbers, and risks from global disruptions such as the Iraq conflict point to the need for caution and a steady hand. So, all up, don’t expect much in the way of change from the Fed’s Open Market Committee today.

Commodities Update: Oil price stuck around USD110/blDanske Bank

Näin on aina olevaJuhani Huopainen / US

Suomen kustannustason karkaaminen ja taloudellinen menestysTyhmyri