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Monday, June 2

2nd Jun - Bad EZ macro, US ISM Fiasco

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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The new European Commission: which president, and what priorities?CER

Portugal courts confidenceFT

Constitutional change in SpainFT

ECB preview: Even a package deal not enough to sustain a bond rallyNordea
There can be little doubt the ECB will provide a whole package of easing measures in its meeting on Thursday, including rate cuts, liquidity measures and a conditional LTRO. Even a whole package of measures is unlikely to be enough to sustain a core bond rally, and longer yields are set to see a rebound higher, while the curve will steepe

Whatever ECB Does, It Won't Deliver Significant Impulse To Real EconomyZH

An enticing Very Long Term Refinancing Operation from the ECBMoney Matters

Targeting your LTROFT
Nomura and JP Morgan on different types of LTRO that the ECB could offer.

Draghi Primes ECB as Inflation Scarcity Alarms OfficialsBB

‘Euro Bears Have Taken Control of the Market’WSJ

Slower German inflation seen raising pressure on ECB to act – Reuters
Europe Manufacturing Cools More Than Estimated as France Shrinks – BB

Unstoppable $100 Trillion Bond Market Renders Models UselessBB
If the insatiable demand for bonds has upended the models you use to value them, you’re not alone.

US Manufacturing PMI Jumps; New Orders & Employment Flat – ZH
ISM Manufacturing Tumbles - The Weather Bounce Is Over – ZH
US ISM manufacturing miss bullish expectations in May – TradingFloor
ISM Manufacturing index decreased in May to 53.2 – Calculated Risk
Manufacturing in U.S. Expands at Slower Rate Than Forecast – BB
U.S. factory activity slows, construction spending up – Reuters

How ISM’s Mistake Impacted the Stock Market – WSJ
ISM Says Applied Wrong Seasonal Factor, Boosts Headline Print To 56 – ZH
Original May, Revised, And The Revised-Revised "Data" – ZH
Here Are The Cherry-picked ISM Revisions – ZH
A 150 Point Swing In Japanese Stocks – ZH
ISM Manufacturing Weaker, Stronger, and Inline – Bespoke

China explores bond buying in first hint of QEThe Telegraph
Officials have been clamping down on credit to puncture the property bubble but are clearly having second thoughts as money supply weakens and bad debts accumulate

China Manufacturing Gauge Rises to Five-Month High – BB

China accelerates as euro zone stumblesBB
Signs of an economic revival in China have raised hopes that Beijing's targeted measures to bolster growth are having an impact but a slowdown in the euro zone will increase expectations of policy easing there.

Dollar is Bid to Start New Week and MonthMarc to Market

BIS Quarterly Review, June 2014BIS
The cross-border claims of BIS reporting banks contracted for a seventh consecutive quarter between end-September and end-December 2013. Nevertheless, the pace of decline was slower than in the preceding two quarters. Claims on banking offices as well as non-bank entities fell. Euro-denominated claims contracted substantially. By contrast, cross-border lending in US dollars and in Japanese yen expanded. Boosted by strong growth in lending to China, cross-border claims on emerging Asia continued their steady expansion.

Central Bank DailyWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Will it Be One and Done for the ECB? * Fed Hawks Not in Formation on Rate-Hike Timing * New Cleveland Fed Chief: Stable Prices Essential * U.S. Inflation Up 1.6%, Closer to Fed’s 2% Goal * ECB Expected to Act Later This Week * SNB Chief Worried About Low Interest Rates

Macro DailyWSJ
Purchasing manager indexes from around the world:: ecovery in Asia, with China’s closely watched PMI showing its fastest rate of expansion in five months, and yet shows signs that Europe’s economic recovery could be faltering. The latter will add to the weight of evidence that the European Central Bank should take action when it meets later this week, which is also why the euro has weakened considerably.

Markkinakatsaus: EKP:n täytyy elvyttää vielä pitkäänHandelsbanken
Euroalueen talous toipuu asteittain, mutta USA:sta poiketen ratkaisemattomia ongelmia on vielä. Työttö-myys pysyy korkeana eikä nopeaa laskua ole luvassa. Budjettialijäämät ovat arkipäivää useissa maissa, ja lisäsopeutusta tarvitaan. Pankit tekevät töitä taseidensa vahvistamiseksi, mutta luottomarkkinoilla olosuhteet ovat kaikkea muuta kuin normaalit. EKP:lta odotetaankin nyt uusia elvytystoimia, sillä euron heikkeneminen on edellytys deflaatiopaineiden kuriin saamiseksi.

Häämöttääkö teollisuuden taantuman loppu?Roger Wessman

"Finanssialan EU-sääntelytehtailuun tuumaustauko"Verkkouutiset

Mikä ihmeen BKT-deflaattori?Henri Myllyniemi / US