Google Analytics

Sunday, June 29

29th Jun - W/E: Best of the Week

Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.


Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

Comfortably numb: ESM direct recapitalizationBruegel

The Burden of Nonperforming Loans on Credit in the Euro AreaIMF
High and rising levels of nonperforming loans in the euro area have burdened bank balance sheets and acted as a drag on bank profits. Banks, striving to maintain provisions to cover bad loans, have had fewer earnings to build-up their capital buffers. This combination of weak profits and a decline in the quality of bank assets, resulting in tighter lending standards, has created challenging conditions when it comes to new lending.

Euro area macro monitorDanske Bank
The euro area recovery is currently driven by domestic demand, as the global slowdown in Q1 resulted in weaker export growth.

Nordic Outlook June 2014Danske Bank
Denmark: We have been waiting for a long time but at long last the recovery seems to be taking hold * Sweden: The Riksbank is set to cut the repo rate and keep it ultra-low for ultra-long * Norway: Oil investment likely to hurt GDP growth, we expect slower growth due to lower growth in oil but still high levels of activity * Finland: The third year of decline, still trapped in recession but should recover in 2015

The EU’s New Stability & Growth SpatWSJ
Euro-zone governments have returned to one of their favorites topics: Do the bloc’s spending rules — which limit national budget deficits to 3% of gross domestic product -- hurt growth?

Europe needs new investment, not new rulesBruegel
In my view, the EU must avoid another useless fight over its fiscal rules and instead use political capital to foster growth. A deal could be designed along 3 central elements.

Merkel versus Renzi for the future of the eurozoneFT
Wolfgang Münchau: Rome’s demand for a fundamental rethink of the fiscal rules sets the scene for a political tussle

Financial Stability Report, June 2014 – BoE
Bank of England imposes first limits on size of UK mortgages – Reuters
The FPC’s Financial Stability Report seems like a paper tiger – TradingFloor

Inflation HysteriaTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Tighter policy is coming. If you are worried the Fed will accelerate the timing and pace of tightening (and I do believe the risk is weighted in this direction), your focus should be on the labor market and wage growth dynamic.

Economists React to Q1 GDP Revision: ‘Different Shades of Nasty’ – WSJ
U.S. economy collapses in first quarter, but growing again – Reuters
U.S. Economy Shrank in First Quarter by Most in Five Years – BB

Consumer Inflation Hits Highest Level Since 2012, Near Fed’s 2% Target – WSJ

5 Takeaways from Japan’s Growth StrategyWSJ

The Long and the Short of China’s EconomyWSJ
Mr. Pettis fears that the “perpetual rolling-over of bad loans [could absorb] most of the country’s loan creation capacity.” At that point, Beijing would risk losing control of growth altogether—and the hoped-for soft landing could turn hard, and fast.

PMIs show Asia rebounding and Europe stallingTradingFloor
The June purchasing manager indices show a subtle, but important change of heart. Japan's and China's numbers turned positive, which is critical for the rest of the world economy. While France disappointed again, that is not news. Germany's service sector giving away the May gains is of little importance. The fact that Europe is dependent on Asia's growth makes Europe's outlook further down the road more positive than today's numbers would suggest.

Global Economics QuarterlyCredit Suisse
Slowing global growth, low developed market inflation, and falling US and European interest rates were all evident in the first half of 2014. But we think the world is reaching turning points in growth, inflation, and – yes – monetary policy.

International spillovers from unconventional monetary policy easing and exit - what do we know?BIS
Remarks by Mr Seppo Honkapohja, Member of the Board of the Bank of Finland, in the panel session "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Its Reversal: Policy Options for Growth and Stability", Asian Economic Panel, Helsinki, 9 June 2014.

The Fund's Lending Framework and Sovereign DebtIMF
IMF Seeks a “Reprofiling” Middle Ground Between Bailouts and DefaultsWSJ
IMF Girds for Market Storms AheadWSJ

New Financial ForecastsNordea
Summary here.

Demokratia ja markkinatalous eivät ole sama asiaTyhmyri
Länsimaisen demokratian uusi haste

Euro heikentää teollisuuden tuottavuuttaTyhmyri
Eurokriisi ja pysyvät taloudelliset vahingot