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Monday, June 23

23rd Jun - PMIs: Asia picks up, Europe disappoints

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Q&A: The fight over Jean-Claude Juncker and why it mattersFT

David Cameron’s increasingly strong opposition to Jean-Claude Juncker runs the risk of alienating Angela MerkelEuropp / LSE

Italy to push for 'United States of Europe' when it holds the EU presidencyThe Telegraph
Italy will use its presidency of the European Union to push for a "United States of Europe," the prime minister has said

ECB publishes final results of Macro-prudential Research NetworkECB
The ECB and Macro-prudential policy: from research to implementationECB
Speech by Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, at the Third Conference of the Macroprudential Research Network, Frankfurt-am-Main, 23 June 2014

Inflation HysteriaTim Duy’s Fed Watch

Betting against the FOMC could end badlySober Look

Existing Home Sales Dropping 7th Month In A Row – ZH
Existing Home Sales in May: 4.89 mio, Inventory up 6.0% Y-oY – Calculated Risk
U.S. housing regaining footing as supply improves – Reuters
Home Sales Pickup Shows Healing U.S. Real Estate Market – BB
Chicago Fed: "Economic growth picked up in May" – Calculated Risk

BOJ Kuroda Pre-Emptively Plays Down Inflation Speed BumpWSJ
BOJ Kuroda calls for bolder reforms to meet G20 commitmentReuters
The governor of the Bank of Japan called for bolder efforts to raise the economy's potential as part of a G20 drive to boost long-term global growth, keeping up pressure on the prime minister to lay out a credible growth strategy.

Japan PMI shows first expansion in three months Reuters

Economists React: China’s Factories Back in BusinessWSJ

China Beige Book, HSBC Manufacturing PMI Paint Diametrically Opposing Pictures Of China's EconomyZH

China PMI shows first expansion in six months as orders surgeReuters

China Manufacturing Gauge Climbs in Sign of PickupBB

China: A temporary boost to PMINordea
Over the last two years, the Chinese economy has been marked by government-led swings with underperformance in the beginning of the year and temporary upturn in the middle of the year. This year is no different. Thanks to the mini stimulus, the economy is currently in a temporary upturn, which will last six months at most.

China PMI PMI above 50 in June – recovery gaining tractionDanske Bank

Euro PMIs weaker than expected, but details in the service sector improvingDanske Bank
German PMI manufacturing in line with expectations, service PMI weaker than expected. French PMIs weaker than expected

Euro-Area Survey Shows Weakening as French Woes WorsenBB

Euro area: PMIs end Q2 on a weak noteNordea
Weak numbers from France, signs of slowdown in Germany. Welcome to the summer lull.

Great Graphic: Euro Area PMI, GDP and PricesMarc to Market

PMIs show Asia rebounding and Europe stallingTradingFloor
The June purchasing manager indices show a subtle, but important change of heart. Japan's and China's numbers turned positive, which is critical for the rest of the world economy. While France disappointed again, that is not news. Germany's service sector giving away the May gains is of little importance. The fact that Europe is dependent on Asia's growth makes Europe's outlook further down the road more positive than today's numbers would suggest.

Markit US PMI manufacturing beats expectations in JuneTradingFloor

US Manufacturing PMI Surges To Highest Since May 2010ZH

Manufacturing picks up pace in leading economies; Europe lagsReuters
Global manufacturing activity appeared to accelerate in June, buoyed by a return to growth in China and Japan and the fastest expansion in the U.S. factory sector in more than four years.

Daily MacroWSJ
The world will be heartened by news that a key gauge of Chinese growth returned to the black. But investors should be careful what they wish for.

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Fed Could Face Tougher Inflation Questions In Days Ahead * Citigroup Fights to Recover From ‘Stress Test’ Failure * IMF Girds for Market Storms Ahead * ECB Says Fixing the Fix Won’t Fix FX * Mexican Central Bank Divided Over Rate Cut

US Dollar Heavy, Euro HeavierMarc to Market

European Euro Bulls vs BearShort Side of Long

FX Update: USD trying to form new base this weekTradingFloor

New Financial ForecastsNordea
Summary here.

Rates: Up, up and away?Nordea
Many core rates are now at all-time lows and with the recent ECB measures in mind, the course looks set for low for longer. However, there are triggers that can address this: Here we look into those, and cement the point that given the depressed state of e.g. inflation, no revolution is needed in terms of upside surprises for nominal rates to correct higher.

Demokratia ja markkinatalous eivät ole sama asiaTyhmyri
Länsimaisen demokratian uusi haste

Tase ja tulosOsmo Soininvaara