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Thursday, June 19

19th Jun - Post-FOMC, Risk-on paradise?

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Euro Area: 2014 Article IV Consultation IMF

Here’s How Much Upside Is Left in European EquitiesWSJ
With euro-zone sovereign debt yields becoming ever more compressed, perhaps it should come as no surprise that investors are chasing European equities.

Does Europe face the prospect of a lost decade?BIS
Speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the International Economic Forum of the Americas, Conference of Montreal, Montreal, 9 June 2014.

Another BOE Rate Setter Mulls Timing of Rate HikeWSJ

Five Takeways From Fed Decision, Yellen News ConferenceWSJ
Fed’s Yellen: Recent U.S. Inflation Data on High Side, But Noisy – WSJ
Economists React to Fed Statement: ‘Steady As She Goes’ – WSJ
Post-FOMC: What Strategists Read in Yellen’s Words – WSJ
Yellen: Inflation Data Are ‘Noisy’ – WSJ
Yellen: No Bubbles Here – WSJ
Yellen: Investors Shouldn’t Take Ultra-Low Rates For Granted – WSJ
Yellen: Fed Still Working Out Mechanics of Raising Rates – WSJ
Fed statement balanced - but rate projections are moving higher – Danske Bank
What the Fed Did and Did Not Do – Marc to Market
Grading Yellen: She Deserves a ‘Solid A’ – WSJ
What the FOMC Was Thinking – The Big Picture
Janet Yellen isn’t giving up on the long-term unemployed – WaPo
Janet Yellen the Hawk – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Still a Dove – Tim Duy’s Fed Watch
Yellen talks about low risk premium, premium declines further – Sober Look
Long Terms at Federal Reserve Mean Current Committee Could Be Going Nowhere – WSJ

EMEA WeeklyDanske Bank

A Word about the Price Action in FXMarc to Market

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hilsenrath’s Take: Yellen To Market: Don’t Be So Sure of Yourself * Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Sees Eventual Rise in 2015, 2016 * BOE Appointee Says Markets Too Sanguine on Risk * China Central Bank to Set Up New Policy Tool * It pays to run the Bank of England

Daily MacroWSJ
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision was hardly earth-shattering, but in the absence of much else to focus on, bond investors are parsing it to figure what shape the U.S. bond yield curve should take.

Periphery Business Cycle MonitorDanske Bank
Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece have potential for more surprises as the hard negative shock has resulted in very high pent-up demand. We expect private consumption to improve further as indicated by the increases in consumer confidence.

If everyone is a mini-LTCM that’s fine, right?FT
A collective bet that is short volatility and long liquidity…volatility inducing news doesn’t have to be bad, just unexpected. If everyone foresees stagnation, the effect of a much stronger than expected piece of European economic data would be interesting.

Suhdannekatsaus 1/2014Valtiovarainministeriö
Kuluvana vuonna talous kasvaa vain 0,2 % ja vuonna 2015 päästään maltilliseen 1,4 prosentin kasvuun. Ennustejakson viimeisenä vuotena 2016 BKT:n kasvuksi muodostuu 1,6 %. Vuonna 2015 kaikki kysyntäerät julkisia investointeja lukuun ottamatta vaikuttavat talouskasvuun positiivisesti. Vienti lisääntyy 4,6 % kansainvälisen kaupan piristyessä. Kotitalouksien reaalitulojen kehitys jää kuitenkin heikoksi ja yksityisen kulutuksen kasvu jatkuu edelleen hyvin vaimeana.

VM:n 1/2014 katsaus: Elvyttävä julkinen taloudenpito jatkuuPiksu