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Wednesday, June 4

4th Jun - ECB Fever Rising

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Interview with Marine Le Pen: 'I Don't Want this European Soviet Union' Spiegel
French right-wing populist Marine Le Pen discusses the European election victory by her Front National, German dominance in the EU and her admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Cameron's Empty Threat: Britain Risks Losing an Ally in EU FeudSpiegel
It appears David Cameron's strategy has backfired. His campaign to derail Jean-Claude Juncker's appointment as the next EU Commission president is failing and the British prime minister may soon suffer a loss of face. Angela Merkel is his only possible savior.

Economic Outlook Nordics June 2014Nordea
The Nordic countries are still at various stages in the economic cycle. Norway and Sweden are well under way, while Denmark is only slowly ascending from the bottom. Finland is hit by a renewed risk of ending up in a protracted economic recession.

The Europe IssueAsho Karao

Focus Germany: Strong domestic economy to suffer from good intentionsDB Research

Strong UK Data Inspire Thoughts of Earlier HikeWSJ

BOE’s Sharp Says the U.K. Economy is Still VulnerableWSJ
An Italian déjà-vuBruegel
The European Commission published today its country-specific recommendations, in the context of the European semester. The leitmotiv, in the case of Italy, is clear and simple:  “limited progress” on almost all the six country-specific recommendations adopted last year by the Council. This year, the recommendations for Italy are increased to eight, none of which will look new to the eyes of the informed observer.

The ECB Will Likely Act, But Is Still Falling ShortPIIE
The increasingly dovish rhetoric from ECB officials has already been priced in by financial markets. This means that the markets would react negatively to a failure to act, and that it will be harder for Frankfurt to surprise investors. A package of smaller actions is thus likely.

ECB preview: Rate cuts... and then someTradingFloor
The ECB Governing Council is expected not only to cut the three key policy rates at the June meeting but also to add some measure of credit easing, possibly a vLTRO.

ECB Watch: Mario's moody mixtape of monetary policyTradingFloor
On the eve of the ECB's latest policy-setting jamboree, the market's eagerness to discover the true meaning of "whatever it takes" is palpable. But the blindingly obvious (and painful) fact is that QE is a gargantuan waste of money.

The Market Says the ECB Will Act. What to Expect NextWSJ

What Exactly is in the ECB’s Toolkit?WSJ

The ECB’s Negative Deposit Rate – The Short AnswerWSJ

Easier monetary policy should be no worry to GermanyBruegel

The ECB can and should make the ABS market happenFT

Great Graphic: Borrowing Rates in EuropeMarc to Market
The rate that banks charge small and medium businesses in Spain, Italy, France and Germany.  Italian and Spanish rates fell, though are still well above French and German rates.

Inflating Deflation: Confusing Symptoms with the IllnessMarc to Market

ECB preview: Rate cuts... and then someTradingFloor

ECB Watch: Mario's moody mixtape of monetary policyTradingFloor

Weakening the Euro, Easier Said Than Done WSJ

Lithuania and the ECB’s governing councilFT
If Lithuania’s accession goes ahead, from January, only the members of the executive board, which include ECB president Mario Draghi, will still be able to vote at each meeting. Under the new system, the number of voters will be capped at 21, meaning there will be four central bank governors at each meeting who do not vote.

Euro area GDP up by 0.2%, EU28 up by 0.3% - Eurostat
Euro GDP growth driven by domestic demand – Danske Bank
Euro area PMI services revised down alongside Germany and France – TradingFloor
Industrial producer prices down by 0.1% in both euro area and EU28 – Eurostat
Calm or Complacency, in Three ChartsWSJ
The market is fluctuating much less on a daily basis now than it was at the end of last year…So far in 2014, there have only been three instances where the market moved by more than 2% in a given day. That compares to seven such days last year, 12 in 2012, 68 in 2011 and 133 during the depths of the financial crisis in 2008.

The question of crowding out with the Fed's reverse repo programSober Look
Some economists have raised concerns that the Fed's experimental reverse repo program (RRP) could crowd out banks. The latest data from Barclays shows that as RRP expanded, money market funds have been placing a greater percentage of their overnight liquidity with the Fed rather than with banks.

Check-up on S&P 500 Sector BreadthBespoke

Trade Deficit Soars To 2 Year High, To Slam Lofty Q2 GDP Expectations – ZH
This US April Trade Balance number is a shocker - TradingFloor
Trade Deficit increased in April to $47.2 Billion – Calculated Risk

Q1 Productivity Misses; Plunges By Most In 6 Years – ZH
179K Jobs Far Below Expectations, Lowest Print Since January – ZH

US ISM non-manufacturing hits 9-month high in May – TradingFloor
ISM Non-Manufacturing: May Beats Expectations – dshort
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased in May to 56.3 – Calculated Risk
ISM Services Beats; Jumps To 9-Month Highs... They Think – ZH
ISM Services Stronger Than Expected – Bespoke

Strategy: Bond yields bottomingDanske Bank

Weekly Focus: ECB has the potential to surpriseDanske Bank

As ECB Frets Over Deflation, Real Culprit Is JapanWSJ

Daily Central BanksWSJ
Blackstone’s Take: Has Draghi Waited Too Long? * Fed Officials Growing Wary of Market Complacency * ECB Ready to Tackle Europe’s Weak Inflation Thursday * ECB Officials Anxious About Impact of U.S. Fines on EU Banks *  Global Inflation Picks Up in April

Daily MacroWSJ
On Friday, we get the all-important U.S. May jobs report, for which today’s private payrolls estimate from Automated Data Processing will be viewed as a less-than-perfect proxy. But before that, we need to deal with one of the most hotly anticipated meetings of the European Central Bank in recent history. The ECB is expected to take some sort of action to stimulate the economy, and will choose from a range of radical to less-radical measures. If it doesn’t act, the market reaction could be quite violent.

Nordea arvioi Suomen olevan jo lamassaYLE
Suomen talous supistuu jo kolmatta vuotta perättäin. Nordean pääekonomistin Aki Kangasharjun mukaan Suomen luottoluokituksen laskeminen ei ole poissuljettu vaihtoehto.

Vilkaisepa näitä 9 Nordean grafiikkaa, jotka kertovat Suomen olevan lamassaTE

Miksi kultakanta ei ole hyvä ideaTakkirauta

EKP:n toimille vihreätä valoa talousluvuistaRoger Wessman

EK:n Häkämies taloustilanteesta: "Suomi on mutasarjassa"HS
Suomen tilanne on tulevaisuuden näkymien suhteen samassa viiteryhmässä Espanjan, Italian ja Kreikan kaltaisten maiden kanssa, sanoo Elinkeinoelämän keskusliiton (EK) toimitusjohtaja Jyri Häkämies.

"Lyhennysrahoilla saisi talouskasvua"HS
Swedbankin Michael Wolfin mukaan Suomen talous kasvaisi, jos lainoja lyhennettäisiin hitaammin

Keskiajan paluu ja tiedevastaisuusTyhmyri
Helsingin Sanomat ja tahaton huumori

Perussuomalaisten ryhmä europarlamentissa on ECRPS

Antti Rinne Suomen uusi EVM-edustaja?Juha Hämäläinen / US

Nordean lama-puheille tyrmäys: Käynnissä pitkäkestoinen taantumaHS

EKP ja narulla työntämisen vaikeusValtteri Aaltonen / US

Vattin Juhana Vartiainen suomii ekonomisteja vääristä analyyseistäHS